ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[cycloneye]

We have now the second TC of the season in the Atlantic.Official at 11 AM.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902009_al032009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908151242
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 032009.ren

[senorpepr]

We have now the second TC of the season in the Atlantic.Official at 11 AM.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902009_al032009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908151242
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 032009.ren

Correction... third tropical cyclone. Don't forget 01L.

[RL3AO]

We have now the second TC of the season in the Atlantic.Official at 11 AM.

You mean third?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 151244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL032009) 20090815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200 090817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.4W 11.3N 39.5W 11.6N 42.2W
BAMD 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.0W 11.8N 38.9W 12.2N 41.9W
BAMM 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.1W 11.7N 39.0W 12.1N 42.0W
LBAR 11.5N 33.3W 11.5N 36.8W 11.5N 40.7W 12.0N 44.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 1200 090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 44.5W 15.2N 50.2W 17.5N 58.0W 19.4N 64.8W
BAMD 12.8N 44.9W 14.5N 50.4W 17.2N 55.4W 21.0N 60.4W
BAMM 12.8N 45.1W 14.8N 50.8W 17.5N 56.7W 20.7N 63.0W
LBAR 12.4N 48.9W 13.1N 55.9W 16.5N 57.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS
DSHP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 30.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 27.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Yep,I forgot that May TD.

[tolakram]

[ronjon]

Models today are trending toward more weakness in the western Atlantic for 90L in the long range. The Euro remains consistent with recurve in the open Atlantic near 63W. The 00Z CMC now shows a turn toward the NW near 60W. The dynamic guidance has trended slightly north and the 06Z GFS shows a recurve now in the western atlantic. Too soon to jump for joy on this one but if these trends continue perhaps only Bermuda need worry about soon to be Bill.

[Scorpion]

Models today are trending toward more weakness in the western Atlantic for 90L in the long range. The Euro remains consistent with recurve in the open Atlantic near 63W. The 00Z CMC now shows a turn toward the NW near 60W. The dynamic guidance has trended slightly north and the 06Z GFS shows a recurve now in the western atlantic. Too soon to jump for joy on this one but if these trends continue perhaps only Bermuda need worry about soon to be Bill.

And its still days away.. the trend could easily shift left again

[jimvb]

According to Weather Underground, there is yet another system out there ... Invest 03. This is strange, since an Atlantic invest usually has 9 as the first digit. It is a ways behind Ana. I checked its coordinates - around 12N 33W. I checked Invest 90L's coordinates. 12N 33W. This is a first, folks. Two tropical systems at the same place at the same time. Or that's what Weather Underground says.

[CrazyC83]

Will it be 03L.Bill right away though?

[x-y-no]

According to Weather Underground, there is yet another system out there ... Invest 03. This is strange, since an Atlantic invest usually has 9 as the first digit. It is a ways behind Ana. I checked its coordinates - around 12N 33W. I checked Invest 90L's coordinates. 12N 33W. This is a first, folks. Two tropical systems at the same place at the same time. Or that's what Weather Underground says.

I think they saw the message about the coming upgrade to TD03 and misread it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Models today are trending toward more weakness in the western Atlantic for 90L in the long range. The Euro remains consistent with recurve in the open Atlantic near 63W. The 00Z CMC now shows a turn toward the NW near 60W. The dynamic guidance has trended slightly north and the 06Z GFS shows a recurve now in the western atlantic. Too soon to jump for joy on this one but if these trends continue perhaps only Bermuda need worry about soon to be Bill.

I dont see any evidence of that at all right now Ronjon..Only model that shows a legit fish is Euro....way too early in the modeling..

[CrazyC83]

According to Weather Underground, there is yet another system out there ... Invest 03. This is strange, since an Atlantic invest usually has 9 as the first digit. It is a ways behind Ana. I checked its coordinates - around 12N 33W. I checked Invest 90L's coordinates. 12N 33W. This is a first, folks. Two tropical systems at the same place at the same time. Or that's what Weather Underground says.

I think they saw the message about the coming upgrade to TD03 and misread it.

It may be TS Bill right away though, not TD3.

[gatorcane]

When this cone is issued its likely that the 5 day will overlap Ana's and show a very long cone from the Eastern MDR right towards the Leewards,Puerto Rico...Bahamas and Florida.

That will be a graphic you don't see everyday.

[x-y-no]

Yeah, but either way it's renumbered to 03L - that's what I meant.

[senorpepr]

According to Weather Underground, there is yet another system out there ... Invest 03. This is strange, since an Atlantic invest usually has 9 as the first digit. It is a ways behind Ana. I checked its coordinates - around 12N 33W. I checked Invest 90L's coordinates. 12N 33W. This is a first, folks. Two tropical systems at the same place at the same time. Or that's what Weather Underground says.

I think they saw the message about the coming upgrade to TD03 and misread it.

NHC's ATCF file renumbered 90L to 03L, but it still lists it as a disturbance rather than depression.

Code: Select all

     THREE, AL, L, , , , , 03, 2009, DB, S, 2009081306, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL032009
AL, 03, 2009081206,   , BEST,   0, 108N,  185W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081212,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  194W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081218,   , BEST,   0, 112N,  203W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081300,   , BEST,   0, 114N,  211W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 03, 2009081306,   , BEST,   0, 115N,  219W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  20,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081312,   , BEST,   0, 116N,  225W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081318,   , BEST,   0, 116N,  232W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081400,   , BEST,   0, 116N,  240W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081406,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  251W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081412,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  272W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  200,  60,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081418,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  292W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  75,  35,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081500,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  307W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  75,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081506,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  320W,  30, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  75,  40,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2009081512,   , BEST,   0, 115N,  333W,  30, 1006, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  45,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,


[ronjon]

I thought my comments on the recurve would get some reaction. I agree Scorp and D5, its way too early and as we've seen before, the models can flip flop back and forth for days this far out. And sometimes they tend to underestimate the strength of ridging. At the same time, just look at the model tracks a few frames up in the post and you'll see the latest models are turning more W-NW or NW around 60W and the trough is a little faster and deeper in the 500 mb pattern around day 7.

[gatorcane]

Any thoughts on the ECMWF --- keeps showing a recurve run after run including the 00Z

[Scorpion]

Any thoughts on the ECMWF --- keeps showing a recurve run after run including the 00Z

It's ridiculous. This is nearing 40 W and moving close to WSW and increasing speed. And yet it wants to recurve before 60 W? Riiight.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I thought my comments on the recurve would get some reaction. I agree Scorp and D5, its way too early and as we've seen before, the models can flip flop back and forth for days this far out. And sometimes they tend to underestimate the strength of ridging. At the same time, just look at the model tracks a few frames up in the post and you'll see the latest models are turning more W-NW or NW around 60W and the trough is a little faster and deeper in the 500 mb pattern around day 7.

Im personally with you on the recurve actually but have been burned before and know anything beyond 4 days is strictly a guessing game...