ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[gatorcane]

well the 00Z GFS doesn't have the left "bias" so far that the 18Z runs have now more right on this run. I suspected that would happen. I've been noticing the left-bias of the 18Zs for the past few days now.

[Brent]

Further north, clipping the NE Caribbean, and another one right behind:

[cycloneye]

Oh that is very interesting.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Oh that is very interesting.

I did expect that though as noted in my comment above Brent's. Hopefully it recurves now and joins the ECMWF although I am not expecting that much right-bias in this run. Likely more in line with the CMC 12Z and HPC's forecast as noted in their 15Z discussion earlier today.

[Air Force Met]

:uarrow: Already read through that thread (Avila right)?

Yep...you got it...

Edit:

Sometimes...when I'm ready to see an upgrade on a storm...or don't want one to get killed...and I see he's on shift...my heart sinks just a little...

[Derek Ortt]

It's also weaker. From the BAM models, weak meant north in this case

that said, not sure this will veryify at this time. It is in deep easterly flow. Usually, the models have a right bias under this setup (such as the models having Dean missing the Carib)

Need to see if this is a trend though

[meteorologyman]

Wow workin 9 hours and I can see a big difference now this doe look like a Tropical Depression. And as far as ex-TD2 I think it still should be monitored as mentioned before a hurricane is a hurricane. even though ex-TD2 is a small system it will make quite a punch IF it makes landfall as Tropical Storm or Hurricane. I heard that smaller storms pack bigger punches but not very wide spread damage, but I don't remember the source.

[gatorcane]

Check out that ridging as noted in the 500MB flow from the 00Z GFS. It's fair to say it won't be recurving anytime soon in this run with that kind of setup.

[Derek Ortt]

then this track is just el stinko for Florida

[ROCK]

Check out that ridging as noted in the 500MB flow from the 00Z GFS. It's fair to say it won't be recurving anytime soon in this run with that kind of setup.

thats why I am wondering how it is gaining the lat it is......

[Hyperstorm]

Okay, folks...I think this is the point of no return. The last few hours of satellite imagery have shown what looks like an inevitable classification of a tropical cyclone during the next 6-12 hours. I fully expect a tropical storm by this time tomorrow night.

Watch Leewards, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. First...

[jasons2k]

Have we seen a similar model setup before, and if so, what was the storm?

[MWatkins]

Check out that ridging as noted in the 500MB flow from the 00Z GFS. It's fair to say it won't be recurving anytime soon in this run with that kind of setup.

thats why I am wondering how it is gaining the lat it is......

See those windbarbs in the ridge to the north...they are broken up in the middle of the two ridge axis, which is suggesting there will be a disruption in the deep easterly flow. However, it's not enough to turn it, only enough to slow down the system and bring it more WNW. However, once it bumps against the base of the ridge further west, it should snap back to the west and pick up forward speed in that situation.

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

[artist]

Check out that ridging as noted in the 500MB flow from the 00Z GFS. It's fair to say it won't be recurving anytime soon in this run with that kind of setup.

thats why I am wondering how it is gaining the lat it is......

See those windbarbs in the ridge to the north...they are broken up in the middle of the two ridge axis, which is suggesting there will be a disruption in the deep easterly flow. However, it's not enough to turn it, only enough to slow down the system and bring it more WNW. However, once it bumps against the base of the ridge further west, it should snap back to the west and pick up forward speed in that situation.

MW

I love explanations such as this, thanks.

[gatorcane]

Oh great....knew that was coming with the setup this run had, skirting just north of the islands toward SE Bahamas:

[ROCK]

Check out that ridging as noted in the 500MB flow from the 00Z GFS. It's fair to say it won't be recurving anytime soon in this run with that kind of setup.

thats why I am wondering how it is gaining the lat it is......

See those windbarbs in the ridge to the north...they are broken up in the middle of the two ridge axis, which is suggesting there will be a disruption in the deep easterly flow. However, it's not enough to turn it, only enough to slow down the system and bring it more WNW. However, once it bumps against the base of the ridge further west, it should snap back to the west and pick up forward speed in that situation.

MW

Ahhh....gotcha....I learn something new on here every season.. ..thanks MW....

[Brent]

Approaching the Bahamas:

[Derek Ortt]

its gaining latitude because it is significantly weaker this run. The other runs had this down to 990 in about 5 days. This one is about 1000mb. A more intense storm is more affected by the deep easterlies and should be driven faster west

[meteorologyman]

Is Everyone Hurricane prepared? DON'T WAIT FOR THE LAST MINUTE!