ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[rrm]

just wandering who has the highest possibility for a landfalling system?

[jinftl]

no model shows a texas threat at this time.....take that as you will given how far out in time the models go

hey derek does any of these storms have a chance to make it to texas and if so which one?

[robbielyn]

Don't underestimate TD2 because of its size. Its potential and season timing for the area it is headed to is significant. Its present behavior is not what you want to see.

agree sanibel. td2 has the shape of a forming storm way more than 90L although 90l has some nice outflow to the south

[tolakram]

[boca]

Don't underestimate TD2 because of its size. Its potential and season timing for the area it is headed to is significant. Its present behavior is not what you want to see.

True Sanibel, I'm trying to catch up after 2 weeks without S2k.It was hard I was in Yosemite, CA.

[Evil Jeremy]

just wandering who has the highest possibility for a landfalling system?

Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles

[jinftl]

I will be curious to see if any model runs begin to pick up on a potentially stronger ex-td 2.....and as others have pointed out, the shear that could impart on 90L. Either way....something is heading west as a storm i would say....how far west and how strong....not touchin' that

[Gustywind]

The islands may not have the luxury of awaiting that answer....from at least one of these 2 systems

Most importantly what will the pattern be across The US by the time 90L and X-TD get into this part of the world.Will their be a trough in the east or a ridge 7 to 10 days out. The trough in the east would recurve before a real threat.

LOL absolutely good reasoning

[cycloneye]

Both are moving west at 270 degrees.

[srainhoutx]

Good buoy to watch...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[jinftl]

texas, miami, cape hatteras, and long island have about equal shots of a system at this time....bermuda slightly higher...the northern island and Puerto Rico are higher than Bermuda

[robbielyn]

I will be curious to see if any model runs begin to pick up on a potentially stronger ex-td 2.....and as others have pointed out, the shear that could impart on 90L. Either way....something is heading west as a storm i would say....how far west and how strong....not touchin' that

I think they are far enough apart to not effect each other i think td 2 will be a fish paving the way for 90L to head west into the northern antilles.

[boca]

The islands may not have the luxury of awaiting that answer....from at least one of these 2 systems

Most importantly what will the pattern be across The US by the time 90L and X-TD get into this part of the world.Will their be a trough in the east or a ridge 7 to 10 days out. The trough in the east would recurve before a real threat.

Agreed our friends in the Caribbean have to watch these systems carefully and hope for a recurve safely out to sea.

[jinftl]

i would think the opposite....a stronger ex-td2 has something that could be kryptonite to 90L....shear

what would turn ex-td2 north at this point?

I will be curious to see if any model runs begin to pick up on a potentially stronger ex-td 2.....and as others have pointed out, the shear that could impart on 90L. Either way....something is heading west as a storm i would say....how far west and how strong....not touchin' that

I think they are far enough apart to not effect each other i think td 2 will be a fish paving the way for 90L to head west into the northern antilles.

[Sanibel]

18Z GFDL doesn't detect a reformed TD2 but runs the TD2 wave into Florida. Interesting to see what GFDL will do with it if it intensifies.

[Weatherboy1]

The LLC of 90 appears to be SE of what was earlier the main ball of convection. Now tonight, we're seeing strong storms fire right over that center. Hard to believe they won't name (TD3) this one tonight at 11 or tomorrow at 5 a.m. if that convection persists...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[robbielyn]

To be honest with you I don't know just my undereducated opinion thats all. but I have been right on a few of these storms in the past and I have no problem eating humble pie.

[jinftl]

Was going to call it a night....but may stay on here for a bit...and its not to catch any updates on the 2 systems....wobble-watching is days away....rather it is for this great dialogue going on real-time!

Anyone who thinks this season has been boring should catch this dialogue going on here....differing ideas being discussed in a civil tone....s2k at its best!!!

[Gustywind]

The islands may not have the luxury of awaiting that answer....from at least one of these 2 systems

Most importantly what will the pattern be across The US by the time 90L and X-TD get into this part of the world.Will their be a trough in the east or a ridge 7 to 10 days out. The trough in the east would recurve before a real threat.

Agreed our friends in the Caribbean have to watch these systems carefully and hope for a recurve safely out to sea.

You're right Boca good post glad to see that reasoning, not that the risk could not exist for you in the US, but we're a bit more concerned about these to features especially 90L as they're are more closer to us;

[jimvb]

The 2009 August 14 18Z GFS shows Invest-90's "little brother" coming up the Carolinas and suddenly strengthening. It looks a lot like Gaston in 2004. That caused huge floods in the Richmond, VA, area and possibly cost Richmond the Braves, its minor league baseball team. There seemed to be no way my wife could get to work then, so she didn't. If she had, we would have lost our Corolla.