ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Aric Dunn]

My knowledge of the interaction of 2 tropical systems is very limited....but i have heard of situations where 2 nearby storms can cause one to veer off.....as if approaching a trough....or cause one to weaken as they both fight for the same energy.

I guess i pose this question...more than have an answer...could a developing 92L cause 90L to turn on a more nw to n course in time?

a huge potential unknown in terms of track and intensity....what if 92L reforms and intensifies? That could throw everything up in the air.

Explain more please about the throwing in the air part.

thats called fujiwhara ... but they are not close enough for that to happen .. but good idea anyway

[Gustywind]

notice the deep BAM. It is the farthest west

strong may mean farther south and west

Hi Dereck what is your latest thought about 90L? Do you tkink that it could pose a threat for us in the islands?

[Derek Ortt]

the most likely scenario if TD 2 decides to go bonkers is to shear 90L

[Sanibel]

I think they are too far apart for Fujiwara. Perhaps a stronger TD2 would keep 90L from becoming too big?

I imagine 90L would get pulled slightly more north if it stayed close enough to TD2 as a deeper cyclone. Though you'll get immediate arguments on that I'm sure.

[jinftl]

so i take it that most model runs are not going with this idea? Your thoughts?

the most likely scenario if TD 2 decides to go bonkers is to shear 90L

[Derek Ortt]

lets put it this way... chances are quite good of a significant hurricane. You had better hope TD 2 blows up into something big, shears apart 90L, AND hope that it misses the islands. TD 2 may strike you guys as well

[bob rulz]

Hmmm...90L is definitely looking gradually better. I still would be surprised if it's upgraded before 11am, but at this rate, 5am isn't too unrealistic.

[jinftl]

Hopefully.....we all know that any idea that takes away from folk's expected outcome is bound to do that....the question then becomes does the idea have merit or not

Though you'll get immediate arguments on that I'm sure.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well yes, but they are nearly 15 degrees LON apart. It will take a couple days for 90L to catch the "remnant low". I don't see that happening just yet.

[Gustywind]

lets put it this way... chances are quite good of a significant hurricane. You had better hope TD 2 blows up into something big, shears apart 90L, AND hope that it misses the islands. TD 2 may strike you guys as well

Tkanks Derek , so good chances to see a cane near us...

[Aric Dunn]

so i take it that most model runs are not going with this idea? Your thoughts?

the most likely scenario if TD 2 decides to go bonkers is to shear 90L

peronally .. td2 is small and any shear from it would be minimal.. there would have to some serious explosive deepening and areal expanding to do that but its possible i guess.

[tolakram]

I have an amateur feeling that this might be the beginning of a big pulse of convection.

[boca]

Most importantly what will the pattern be across The US by the time 90L and X-TD get into this part of the world.Will their be a trough in the east or a ridge 7 to 10 days out. The trough in the east would recurve before a real threat.

[jinftl]

hard to focus on one system without noticing the other on that map at this point!

I have an amateur feeling that this might be the beginning of a big pulse of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

I have an amateur feeling that this might be the beginning of a big pulse of convection.

well yeah if the center closed off near that convection firing to the south then we have increased convergence and that is almost inevitable..

[rrm]

hey derek does any of these storms have a chance to make it to texas and if so which one?

[bob rulz]

There is definitely a nice ball of convection blowing up with 90L, it looks significantly better than it did even a couple of hours ago.

[Sanibel]

Don't underestimate TD2 because of its size. Its potential and season timing for the area it is headed to is significant. Its present behavior is not what you want to see.

[boca]

hey derek does any of these storms have a chance to make it to texas and if so which one?

Way too early to say if these systems will make it to the east coast rather than to Texas at this point.

[jinftl]

The islands may not have the luxury of awaiting that answer....from at least one of these 2 systems

Most importantly what will the pattern be across The US by the time 90L and X-TD get into this part of the world.Will their be a trough in the east or a ridge 7 to 10 days out. The trough in the east would recurve before a real threat.