ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[CourierPR]

As an opinion rather than forecast, I'm still thinking 90L - in whatever form it ends up in - will stay more towards the right side of the model guidance spectrum. Climatology with the developing El-Nino pattern combined with persistent East Coast troughing favors such. With extended forecasts, climo and persistent large-scale patterns tend to be at least as good as the numerical guidance.

- Jay

Although climo and El Nino did not keep Andrew from heading west under a strong high pressure system in '92. We will see.

[KWT]

Thats worrying Derek, we really don't need another hurricane that kills as many as storms like Jeanne, etc, which would be quite possible if it struck that area as a major.

As bad as Haiti got struck last year, it never got a direct smash from a major hurricane like the 18z is suggesting.

[gatorcane]

yeah it rolls through Haiti also, and another system behind it to add the one-two punch. Question now becomes, where do these systems go now after that?

They are both marching W to WNW in tandem under a Bermuda ridge but that trough is lurking...

[Bocadude85]

The only shred of good news I can see with with this system hitting Hispanola is that the coc will be disrupted so those inline after hispanola will be dealing with a weaker system.

[gatorcane]

The only shred of good news I can with with this system hitting Hispanola is that the coc will be disrupted so those inline after hispanola will be dealing with a weaker system.

Not really. Though you have seen some systems get ripped apart pretty good recently (Ernesto 2006), they can intensify very rapidly after getting back over water if the upper-level environment is good.....

[Gustywind]

Thats worrying Derek, we really don't need another hurricane that kills as many as storms like Jeanne, etc, which would be quite possible if it struck that area as a major.

As bad as Haiti got struck last year, it never got a direct smash from a major hurricane like the 18z is suggesting.

Reminds me a sad trio in 1995 , Iris, Luis and Marylin in the Lesser Antilles especially Guadeloupe and the Leew/ Northern Leewards, damnnn they can go fishing Hopefully it's just very worrying runs daily ...

[JPmia]

I will say this...so far...the GFS runs and others as well have been pretty consistent bringing a major hurricane toward towards the NE Caribbean islands either just to the north or just to the south...that we can say...then they diverge more. Quite omnibus for those areas especially for PR, Haiti & DR.

[PTrackerLA]

From what I saw last year with Gustav and Ike the wind radii really expands after encountering the Antilles. Just look how huge Ike became.

[NEXRAD]

As an opinion rather than forecast, I'm still thinking 90L - in whatever form it ends up in - will stay more towards the right side of the model guidance spectrum. Climatology with the developing El-Nino pattern combined with persistent East Coast troughing favors such. With extended forecasts, climo and persistent large-scale patterns tend to be at least as good as the numerical guidance.

- Jay

Although climo and El Nino did not keep Andrew from heading west under a strong high pressure system in '92. We will see.

Much agreed, which is why I emphasize such as opinion as opposed to any forecast. Trying to extrapolate a yet to form tropical cyclone out at day 6... 7... 8... that's almost parallel to reading tea leaves. However, even the HPC is siding with a more amplified pattern than the GFS per their hedging towards the CMC with their PM extended forecast discussion. The GFS is more persistent with a westward nosing of the Atlantic subtropical ridge than some of the other guidance and per present conditions, e.g. TD-2's remnant and ongoing troughing/tropical wave interaction over Florida this weekend, I'm skeptical of the GFS and would take it's outputs lightly at these ranges; we'll have a clearer idea of how the ridge-trough pattern is setting up by Monday-Tuesday.

- Jay

[Derek Ortt]

however, the UKMET also went with the GFS scenario

[Brent]

Near the Florida Keys:



New Orleans AGAIN!!!!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Ouch

[Bocadude85]

Hits the Fla Keys and continues into the GOM

[Evil Jeremy]

How many times has the GFS clipped the keys and slammed NO with 90L so far lol? It's crazy!

[knotimpaired]

When everyone refers to a "major" storm how many cat's is that? 3,4,5?

K

[KWT]

Its a PERFECT Georges track, hits every possible bit of land it again before it emerges into the Gulf. I'd be surprised if it was not a TS by the time it finished that land trip.

Still thankfully the 18z GFS has been the furtherest south of all the GFS runs recently...but there has been a slight trend SW each run...

[RL3AO]

When everyone refers to a "major" storm how many cat's is that? 3,4,5?

K

Category 3 or higher.

[cycloneye]

Also GFDL is with UKMET and GFS on Caribbean Sea track.

[jlauderdal]

How many times has the GFS clipped the keys and slammed NO with 90L so far lol? It's crazy!

we have been in the bulls eye so many times i prefer that 5+ days out because how many times has it worked out. How about that big bad Ike last year that was coming here.

[vacanechaser]

How many times has the GFS clipped the keys and slammed NO with 90L so far lol? It's crazy!

not as many times as it has hit the carolinas and florida... at least not yet!!! lol



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team