ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[vacanechaser]

i have seen storms deal with a lot more SAL than this and done just fine... i think he may have been talking about the winds... i think the big thing is the circulation is just too large and is struggling to consolidate.. but it will do it and once it does, the larger circulation will help protect the core from the negatives that it may run into down the road...





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Yeah as I said before these large circulations tend to take a while to tighten up and so thats another issue, though its probably also helping to keep a good amount of moisture coming up, which is something TD2 struggled with badly.

[Bocadude85]

Yes this will likely be a very large storm once it develops.

[I-wall]

Does anyone have the latest shear forecast maps?

[clfenwi]

Near its southern boundary, the SAL is also associated with the midlevel African easterly jet centered near 700 hPa, which can greatly increase the low-level vertical wind shear.

Dunion, J.P., and C.S. Velden, 2004: The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 353–365.

The CIMSS imagery shows the dry air aspect of the SAL, but doesn't necessarily capture the shear generating easterly jet, which in turn, isn't necessarily well represented in conventional shear analysis.

[KWT]

Very good find clfenwi, that does make sense though the shear charts are showing an area of general shear being about anyway close to 90L.

18z run coming through now...

[Gustywind]

Certainly not good for the islands if that pans out. Watch out Ms.Bee, caribepr, Luis gustywind and all of our other Caribbean friends. Next week is the time we would normally be in St. Maarten but outside forces caused us to change our plans! Whew!

Lynn

Tkanks Lynn we appreciate sincerely this thought to all carib islanders We continue to monitor 90L with attention.

[Scorpion]

Hmm.. what's this behind 90L?

[KWT]

Who knows, still the GFS hasn't got 90L quite so strong thus far in the run but the placement is VERY close yet again, maybe a fraction to the south probably due to it being weaker on this run.

[NEXRAD]

As an opinion rather than forecast, I'm still thinking 90L - in whatever form it ends up in - will stay more towards the right side of the model guidance spectrum. Climatology with the developing El-Nino pattern combined with persistent East Coast troughing favors such. With extended forecasts, climo and persistent large-scale patterns tend to be at least as good as the numerical guidance.

- Jay

[Brent]

Looks just as strong as 12z, and look at its sibling behind it:

[Bocadude85]

Looks on track to slam the NE Caribbean again

[Brent]

Significant hurricane just past the Lesser Antilles and the next storm looks ready to go behind it:

[Bocadude85]

The 18z GFS run looks a tad south of the 12z so far

[KWT]

Yep, looks like its heading towards DR/Haiti, which is a really scary thought!

[Annie Oakley]

KWT-you mentioned Dean a couple of times-I hope 90 won't be like him-he was so intense -but quite a beautiful storm....

[Brent]

Passes just south of Puerto Rico, hits Haiti and what looks to be another significant storm approaching the Antilles:

[KWT]

Well Dean was a total outlier really in how far west it got from where it started, even though there is ridging in place it shouldn't be as strong as that.

18z GFS hammers DR/Haiti, worst case in terms of lifeloss if that happens after last years horror show...

[Bocadude85]

Slams Haiti with another system on its tail heading for the Leewards again.

[Derek Ortt]

this may be a very quiet season in terms of numbers

and may yet be one of the most destructive if that scenario comes true