ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[tolakram]

Looks to me like a good deal of convection now near the center, even with all the shear.

[Frank2]

Ah - I forgot that you don't have Daylight Savings Time, as we do, so it's 5 hours not 4...

Have a good evening over there!

Frank

P.S. Yes, we'll see, though if the high is off-center, that'll make for a lopsided 90L (in a sense) and make a real difference on development - still a wait and see system...

[Derek Ortt]

el nino shear is out of the west. This is easterly shear. Nothing at all to do with el nino (may be SAL related though)

[jlauderdal]

if you see 960mb on GFS... then you have a large cat 5

if i ever see 960 on gfs I would expect the system to cover the entire MDR ...lol or fill up the entire carribean..

yeah 960 would be low but i would expect something less than 99, lets monitor and see, this season is just getting underway so plenty of gfs model runs to look at the next 2 months.

[KWT]

As Derek said on the other thread a 990s hurricane is probably a major hurricane, indeed if you look at the GFS own wind swath at 925mbs it shows winds at 100kts or so at the end of the run it shows, so its clearly a powerful system on at least the GFS. Only an unexpected area of shear can really prevent this being a hurricane getting closer to the Leeward islands but we shall see.

[jlauderdal]

I think is the best the NWS in San Juan can do to tell the population without alarming about what is going on.

seems reasonable and smart but how many people are reading the discos, unfortunately for the general public they rely on the local media and if its anything like miami its sketchy at best. Something tells me our friends in PR are a much better equipped to deal with tropical activity than the population in our area based on past performance of the said population in past situations.

[Thunder44]

Ivan,do you have the animation of the 12z UKMET?

I can't find it. They took it off the FSU site

You can see the UKMET off the the PSU site out to 144hrs. Unfortunately it doesn't go out in to deep tropics. But you can see, on it's 12z run today 90L almost due south of Dominican Republic at 144 hrs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHE ... kloop.html

[KWT]

Last few images today coming in now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis-s.html

Convection is still being sheared but got to admit its still bursting convection, its certainly not having as much an issue as TD2 did...

[Aric Dunn]

The biggest issue right now is that it just does not have a well defined center. it is still very broad and its likely from the all the shear and dry air

[paintplaye]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/AMERICA/index.htm

Loop of both our storms

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,do you have the animation of the 12z UKMET?

I can't find it. They took it off the FSU site

You can see the UKMET off the the PSU site out to 144hrs. Unfortunately it doesn't go out in to deep tropics. But you can see, on it's 12z run today 90L almost due south of Dominican Republic at 144 hrs:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHE ... kloop.html

Thanks. I'm bookmarking now

[cycloneye]

Thank you Thunder.

[KWT]

Nice loop there.

By the way how far west does those high resolution Sat imagery go, and also when do we get the rapid fire imagery?

[gatorcane]

Latest HPC discussion snippet on 90L and possible CONUS impacts:

HOWEVER THE MODELS REMAIN STRONGER
DEPICTING THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA...WITH A
TRACK FORECAST CLOSEST TO THE 12Z CANADIAN PREFERRED BY DAYS 6/7.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS VERY
LARGE...WITH EVOLUTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH HAVING A DIRECT
INFLUENCE ON ANY TROPICAL WAVES THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SEE TPC
DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEMS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

Interesting that they are leaning towards the Canadian model for the 6/7 day forecast with just a brush for the Leewards.

Link to 12Z CMC 144 hour:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[KWT]

Very interesting but I can't help but think the only reason they are using the CMC is because its the middle ground between the GFS and the ECM. Still the CMC is certainly a possible outcome, esp as it isn't that far from the rest of the models.

Just out of interest in terms of history, this is what you get a depression that forms at 12.5/28.8. Of course 90L is going to form west of that but its something to look at:

[vacanechaser]

el nino shear is out of the west. This is easterly shear. Nothing at all to do with el nino (may be SAL related though)

SAL?? really??? i dont see that much there.. maybe i am missing something... i would certainly agree that it is not el nino shear... would agree about easterly shear however.. maybe i am not seeing something in the SAl map though....






Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Bocadude85]

I see a little SAL on the northern flank of 90L but not much.

[Scorpion]

Yea that little SAL is probably affecting it right now. Once it moves away from that it should better organize.

[brunota2003]

He might also be referring to the winds that usually kick up the SAL in the first place...but it has been wet enough with the recent rains to prevent much dust from being kicked up.

[KWT]

I think the SAL that is present isn't really an issue given its blowing up still quite nicely on the western side, its not like TD2 just yet anyway in that respect where the SAL had a telling effect. However Derek is the total expert on that side of things.