ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[HurricaneQueen]

Certainly not good for the islands if that pans out. Watch out Ms.Bee, caribepr, Luis gustywind and all of our other Caribbean friends. Next week is the time we would normally be in St. Maarten but outside forces caused us to change our plans! Whew!

Lynn

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmmm......we all know the EURO performed well last season.

12z ECMWF,Recurve

Same scenario from this model.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[RL3AO]

exactly and like i said originally this is probably underdone at least for now

It won't get much stronger on the GFS. So it your expecting it to show a 960mb storm, its not going to happen.

[Derek Ortt]

if you see 960mb on GFS... then you have a large cat 5

[KWT]

Yeah but do you remember Ike...all other models were going WSW whilst the ECM kept going and recurving.

Its a good model for sure BUT it recurved dean too earlier, recurved Ike, there is a history to recurve storms too quickly on the ECM before they formed...

You can't ignore the ECM however, the fact its still recurving is putting at least a certain amount of doubt in my mind depsite most models either going close to the Islands or slamming them...the fact the UKMO is also disagreeing with it is very telling, as the UKMO+ECM 8 times out of 10 will agree with each other on the broad pattern.

[Derek Ortt]

To be fair Derek the 12z ECM is a lot faster then its 0z run, it reaches 40W nearly 24hrs faster on this run. Even so its still a little slower then the other models.

Its clearly a total outlier now, and you got to think it will buckle.

We just need to hope that center forms as far north as possible!

doesn't matter where the center forms. If the center forms farther north, it forms closer to the ridge, meaning a west track instead of WNW

[Aric Dunn]

if you see 960mb on GFS... then you have a large cat 5

if i ever see 960 on gfs I would expect the system to cover the entire MDR ...lol or fill up the entire carribean..

[KWT]

I remember Katrina was often down to 950-940mbs. Given the GFS does show a decent amount of deepening is suggestive of it being a large system as well as the models tend to handle deepening a tiny bit better with a large system, I suppose becuase the resolution can notice it that bit better then a smaller system, though its obviously not enough to get a true grasp on a systems strength.

[Aric Dunn]

gfs is showing a large system of course.. huge wins swaths

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Statement issued this afternoon by the NWS in San Juan


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2009

...PERSONS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 15 MPH AND ITS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ON THE OTHER HAND...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250
MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION YET..CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR SEVERAL DAYS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
SUGGESTED THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD POSE A THREAT TO
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
USE THIS WEEKEND TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. I

HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT
TROPICAL CYCLONES:

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCH: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

DON`T FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK LINE.

A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP...THE DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A
HURRICANE CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT IS WISE TO ASSUME
THAT YOU COULD EASILY TAKE A DIRECT HIT AND EVEN IF YOUR AREA DOES
NOT TAKE A DIRECT HIT YOU COULD STILL BE IN SERIOUS DANGER.

NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM.

GROCERY STORES MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS SOON. STOCK UP ON...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. CANNED OR DRIED FOOD AND
DRINKING WATER FOR AT LEAST 5 TO 7 DAYS. FIRST AID SUPPLIES.
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE.

GET CASH...CREDIT CARDS AND ATM`S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.

FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.

AROUND THE HOUSE...STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS...BOARDS ETC. ENSURE
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING. MOVE BOAT TO A SAFE LOCATION.
TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON HOUSE. MAKE SURE VALUABLE
PAPERS ARE SECURE.

KNOW WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU SHOULD YOU
DECIDE YOU ARE NO LONGER SAFE FROM HIGH WINDS AND/OR FLOODING.

IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER REMEMBER TO BRING...FIRST
AID KIT. MEDICINE. BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS. TOILETRIES. CHANGE OF
CLOTHES. BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES. FLASHLIGHT.
SLEEPING BAGS OR BLANKETS. IDENTIFICATION. VALUABLE PAPERS. CASH.
GAMES.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS, AND
HURRICANES IN GENERAL, IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET FROM SEVERAL
SOURCES:

PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SPANISH WEB PAGE:

HTTP://WWW.GOBIERNO.PR/AEMEAD/INICIO

FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:

HTTP://FEMA.GOV

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/HAW2/ENGLISH/INTRO.SHTML

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV

AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE:

HTTP://REDCROSS.ORG

(ALL WEB PAGES SHOULD BE TYPED IN LOWER CASE)

[KWT]

There has to be some decent confidence in this being modelled correctly if they are issuing something to prepare people.

Also its amazing to se the GFS itself progging a major hurricane on that wind swath

[Emmett_Brown]

HWRF, with its much higher resolution, brings 90L to around 922mb at the end of the 12z run.

[Frank2]

Perhaps it's because I've been really busy today and haven't been here since this morning, but looking at (former) TD2 and 90L it seems both are still lacking considerable strong convection due to the shear and dry air mentioned above, so, it's still wait and see...

Of course that wasn't the issue with 90L yesterday, but it is the case today, else the NHC would have already upgraded 90L to a TD, though the NWS SJU people are being cautious, since they need to be...

Unfortunately, we live in an era of fear, and the fear is also driving them - their Public Information Statement, when there isn't even a TD is on the map, is an example of how fear-driven our society has become...

And that's not to say that being prepared isn't a good thing, because it is, but it's another to sound fearful when there is barely a system out there...

Frank

[Scorpion]

Huh? 90L has plenty of strong convection.

[Tropicswatcher]

And here is the latest area discussion from the NWS in San Juan:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF TUTT LOWS ARE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH
ONE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND
ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GET ABSORBED BY A POLAR TROUGH
OVR THE NCNTRL ATLC. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CNTRL ATLC THREATEN TO BECOME THE FIRST AND SECOND NAMED STORMS OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

EXCELLENT WEEKEND TO GO OVER YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AS
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND STABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD2 IS ATTEMPTING A COMEBACK AROUND
THE REMNANT LOW PRES. NHC/HPC NOON COORDINATION CALL KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A OPEN WAVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN PREDICTING STORM STRUCTURE
THREE DAYS IN ADVANCE AND SYSTEMS THIS SMALL ARE SUBJECT TO RAPID
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY EITHER UP OR DOWN. WITH THIS IN MIND WE
SHOULD ALL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS PWATS AROUND 2.6 INCHES OR AROUND 145% OF NORMAL IN
THAT AREA. IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CONVECTION OVR
THE WEEKEND IT COULD PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS TO PR AND THE USVI.

NEXT AREA OF LOW PRES IS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WSW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED WITH THE CENTER TO THE EAST OF
THE CONVECTION. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SAHARAN AIR BEING SUCKED
INTO THE CIRCULATION WHICH IS RETARDING ITS DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIKE THIS STORM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND NHC
IS GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HRS. GFS MODEL HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST THREE DAYS TAKING THIS SYSTEM OVR PUERTO RICO ON THU. 12Z
GFDL HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK ABT 2 DEGS SOUTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND IS ALSO FASTER BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE GFS. 12Z NOGAPS
AND CMC GLOBAL HAVE ALSO SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO PR AND THE
NEW 12Z ECWMF ALTHOUGH IS STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE HAS TRENDED TO
LEFT TOO. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON A TRACK
CLOSE TO PR...USERS ARE REMINDED THAT TRACK FCSTS SIX DAYS OUT
ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. TYPICAL ERRORS THIS FAR OUT ARE IN
THE ORDER OF 350 NM. UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS A LOW LVL CENTER WELL
ESTABLISHED DO NOT EXPECT THE MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON IT.

[cycloneye]

I think is the best the NWS in San Juan can do to tell the population without alarming about what is going on.

[KWT]

True Frank to a degree but ex TD2 got a decent bit stronger this afternoon in regards to convection, so even if 90L struggles for a little while with the shear once that eases off (and it will, probably between 35-40W IMAO) the system should be all go.

[Frank2]

KWT,

Yes, I agree too, but the TD2 TCD of two days ago did mention the shear to it's west, so, considering the El Nino shear environment, that's really an issue for all to keep in mind for 90L...

I can recall during the El Nino of the early-mid '80s that the NHC became worried about a number of very potential systems that moved off Africa, only for them to weaken to swirls due to the shear environment to the west, and if an El Nino event isn't known for anything else, it's flooding in some areas and shear in others...

Gee, it must be almost 8:30 p.m. where you are...

LOL

[cycloneye]

For the members who may want to follow what is going on in the Eastern Caribbean islands,there is our tent thread at Weather Attic forum,where you can follow the preparations (If anything comes to us because we dont know),you can see many web cams (Are at first post of thread) scattered around the islands,forecasts and more.

Link to E.Carib,Web Cams,Obs,forecasts,Daily Weather thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[KWT]

9.30pm mate, good old british summer time, I have a personal interest and recuvers, esp early ones can also keep me interested, given here in the UK we can have some fun with em!

I'l stay up for the 12z GFS. You are right about the shear, I think 90L is bound to run into it at some point but the models are developing an upper high either over it or very close to 90L which suggests once it does get a little better developed and past the easterly shear like ex-TD2 has done.