ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[JPmia]

I have the GFS run a bit ahead of the online version. It takes the storm into the southern tip of Florida on the 23rd then due north up the western peninsula:

Any way to determine the strength of the storm when it strikes SFL?

[Derek Ortt]

999mb in a model with a 1 degree resolution for a hurricane is not something you want to see... lets just put it that way

[gatorcane]

999mb in a model with a 1 degree resolution for a hurricane is not something you want to see... lets just put it that way

Agreed track needs to be monitored very closely even for those in Southern FL, though its still far out should it even impact them.

I'm hopeful the models will start veering it away from us over the next week or so. I already can see the media coverage that is going to result from this system. Probably several times an hour......

[bucman1]

Based on the Long Range GFS ,what would pull it north along the Florida West coast?

[wxman57]

I have the GFS run a bit ahead of the online version. It takes the storm into the southern tip of Florida on the 23rd then due north up the western peninsula:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Ana4.jpg

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Ana5.jpg

Wxman57, what is the strength of the storm in that model run when it strikes SFL? (like I said last night that is VERY close to THE worst case scenario for the state if it is a major and it follows that path) Reassuring to know that it is more than 200 hours out in the run.

I plotted 1/2 millibar increments. GFS only has about a 1001mb low. GFS doesn't handle tropical cyclone intensity well.

[RL3AO]

Based on the Long Range GFS ,what would pull it north along the Florida West coast?

That trough over the NE is what will pull it north. The question is the timing of the trough.

[jlauderdal]

I have the GFS run a bit ahead of the online version. It takes the storm into the southern tip of Florida on the 23rd then due north up the western peninsula:

Wxman57, what is the strength of the storm in that model run when it strikes SFL? (like I said last night that is VERY close to THE worst case scenario for the state if it is a major and it follows that path) Reassuring to know that it is more than 200 hours out in the run.

that 999 low isnt going to scare me, of course this probably way underdone in this run

[David in FL]

This is from the local surf report. Is this 90L or ex TD2? This shows some MAJOR swells coming in next weekend starting friday the 21. I am guessing it is 90L.


ok how do I post this?

[jlauderdal]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Maintaining the high chance for this system becoming a tropical cyclone...

big deal, we have schools closed in PR for weeks at a time on this board..

[S.FLA STORM TRACKER]

12Z would put metro South Florida on the bad side of this system not to mention a direct hit for the Florida Keys --- of course this run will change so no need for concern. We know the lessen here. Ike is a good example. This thing could be 5 days out and still veer off.

In addition Haiti, PR, and the Leewards hit hard.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... s_ten_216l.

Gatorcane,

When I click the link it says can't find the page.

[David in FL]

Well I cant figure out how to get the loop on here so here is the link. Look at the 180h.

http://www.surfjaxpier.com/forecast

[gtalum]

Just add ".gif" (without quotes) to the end of the url.

[Ivanhater]

UKMET...Caribbean bound

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.3N 28.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2009 11.3N 28.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.08.2009 11.8N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.7N 39.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 12.8N 43.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2009 13.4N 47.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.2N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.8N 54.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2009 15.8N 57.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 61.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 16.6N 64.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2009 17.4N 67.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Gustywind]

UKMET...Caribbean bound

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.3N 28.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2009 11.3N 28.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.08.2009 11.8N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.7N 39.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 12.8N 43.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.08.2009 13.4N 47.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.2N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.8N 54.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2009 15.8N 57.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 16.0N 61.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 16.6N 64.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2009 17.4N 67.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

it's a joke after the GFDL!!

[S.FLA STORM TRACKER]

Just add ".gif" (without quotes) to the end of the url.

Thanks,

Was not all that conerned before, and still along way out, but you can't ignore the models being so consistent.

[wzrgirl1]

999mb in a model with a 1 degree resolution for a hurricane is not something you want to see... lets just put it that way

Please elaborate.

[thetruesms]

that 999 low isnt going to scare me, of course this probably way underdone in this run

Well, it's important to note that is a GFS run. As a global model, it just won't be able to resolve the core dynamics necessary to handle intensity correctly. If you're getting 999 mb out of a global model, that could be an indicator of a pretty strong storm.

[Cookie]

can anyone help give a quick summary of whats happening with this. i was last online last night we where on page 3 now where on page 17

[RL3AO]

999mb in a model with a 1 degree resolution for a hurricane is not something you want to see... lets just put it that way

Please elaborate.

The global models like the GFS don't have the resolution to show how strong the storm will really be. Normally a 999mb storm is a weak tropical storm, but on a global model, that could be a very strong hurricane.

[wzrgirl1]

999mb in a model with a 1 degree resolution for a hurricane is not something you want to see... lets just put it that way

Please elaborate.

The global models like the GFS don't have the resolution to show how strong the storm will really be. Normally a 999mb storm is a weak tropical storm, but on a global model, that could be a very strong hurricane.

OK thank you. Should be a historical storm then. It is definitely large enough to affect a large land mass.