ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Yep I am, but TD2 is seemingly redeveloping and if upgraded will once again be known as TD2.

Anyway as Scorpion has said the 12z GFS is nearly exactly the same as te 06z thus far, got to admit the GFS has pretty much from the start been smashing this one into the NE Caribbean.

[KWT]

12z GFS once again wallops the NE Caribbean, landfall according to the GFS now about 5 days time, so things are going to start getting interesting soon it seems...

[Sanibel]

Too early to tell but a persisting Antilles hit brings a recurve up the west Florida coast into greater possibility. But only after being weakened by a Hispaniola crossing. Still foolish to be worrying before tomorrow or Sunday.

This one falls into the dreaded Donna slot for a west coast of Florida resident. A skim north of the Antilles and recurve up the west coast untouched by land.

It looks like a lower category at the islands.

[Gustywind]

Antilles hit again(this has been EXTREMELY consistent):

Pounding the Leewards near Guadeloupe and Antigua ? . Just another menacing runs daily...

[Brent]

Likely major hurricane right over Puerto Rico:

[Scorpion]

Looks just as strong as previous runs.

[cycloneye]

I lost count on how many times GFS has us obliberated.

[Gustywind]

I lost count on how many times GFS has us obliberated.

NIGTHMARE is an EUPHEMISMA

[thetruesms]

Anyone have the latest track graphic for 90L?

[img]https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_90[img]

Pretty amazing consensus.

Agreed - that tight of a model envelope into the vicinity of the Antilles definitely catches one's eye immediately.

[BensonTCwatcher]

consistently Antilles and keeping the whole EC in play as well. from Carrib to Carolinas right now likely, if it develops or holds. I think it will develop past 40W

[cycloneye]

When I say us,is for all in the NE Caribbean.

[Brent]

Miami

[wxman57]

I have the GFS run a bit ahead of the online version. It takes the storm into the southern tip of Florida on the 23rd then due north up the western peninsula:

[wxman57]

I have the GFS run a bit ahead of the online version. It takes the storm into the southern tip of Florida on the 23rd then due north up the western peninsula:

[Scorpion]

Worst case scenario if that occurred. Luckily it won't happen now

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS ...

skirting right along the north coast of Haiti

weakness coming up ahead, but maybe not soon enough to recurve before Florida

[x-y-no]

wxman57 cheats!

[JTD]

And look at that thing just off the African coast at that point in the GFS run. Wow.

[Bocadude85]

Similar to what happened in 1945

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1945_Atlantic_hurricane_9_track.png

Or in 1960 with Donna

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Donna_1960_track.png

[knotimpaired]

12z GFS once again wallops the NE Caribbean, landfall according to the GFS now about 5 days time, so things are going to start getting interesting soon it seems...

I know this is a 90L thread but TD2 keeps being brought up. Is it TD2 or 90L that you quote as arriving in 5 days? I thought 90L was at leats 10 days away from the islands.