ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[StJoe]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

OUCH!

[Sanibel]

06z GFDL runs north of the Antilles.

[KWT]

I wonder whether the redevelopment of TD2 will throw a curveball in the situation because obviously if it does form when it does lift out, its surely going to leave a nice big weakness that a strong 90L won't be able to resist...

[KWT]

Well the next round of models start coming out soon Sanibel, will be interesting to see what the 12z GFS does and also whether TD2 is stronger on this cycle?

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Current shear map via WISC shows its leaving a 20 knot area and entering a small pocket of very low shear, then onto crazy 40kt. Granted it may change by the time it gets there.

[Sanibel]

In my opinion TD2 is up in the air because other waves before TD2 have shown impressive displays of recovery only to dissipate the next morning. If this was another year I would say TD2 is on its way to development. If it does deepen it should affect 90L.

That GFS model run posted on the last page shows an intensifying cyclone smashing Puerto Rico before turning towards Florida as an intense cyclone.

[KWT]

Yep surely a stronger TD2 will recurve which is going to leave a weakness that 90L will at least jog towards if nothing else. Think thats going to ruin the GFS idea of a gulf hit!

[Gustywind]

[Emmett_Brown]

Probably a silly question, but does anyone know if the GIV mission being flown near ex TD2 will provide data for the models? I don't have any info about the purpose of the mission, so just curious.

[Sanibel]

Anyone have the latest track graphic for 90L?

[KWT]

Yeah shear is likely going to be an issue till about 40W IMO, still its got a good broad circulation which has a large area of moist air to work with TD2 is going to be helping out again it appears by mixing some of it out.

[Brent]

Anyone have the latest track graphic for 90L?

Pretty amazing consensus.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS - out to 60 hours so far -

Building a nice strong mid-level ridge on top of what's either a TD or a TS at about 42W ...

[artist]

it really is. What are each of the models predicting its strength at the end of their runs? Anyone have a link to easily find this in one place?

[KWT]

Just south of 15N at 50W at the moment on the 12z GFS...

Still heading towards the NE Caribbean it seems.

[lester]

Yeah shear is likely going to be an issue till about 40W IMO, still its got a good broad circulation which has a large area of moist air to work with TD2 is going to be helping out again it appears by mixing some of it out.

that poor brave little low

[Sambucol]

Yep surely a stronger TD2 will recurve which is going to leave a weakness that 90L will at least jog towards if nothing else. Think thats going to ruin the GFS idea of a gulf hit!

I thought that TD2 has died. Are you talking about a re-emergence of what was once TD2? Thanks.

[Scorpion]

12Z GFS is pretty much unchanged through 5 days

[Gustywind]

12Z GFS - out to 60 hours so far -

Building a nice strong mid-level ridge on top of what's either a TD or a TS at about 42W ...

So given that you tkink that a recurve is quite difficult for the islands?

[Brent]

Antilles hit again(this has been EXTREMELY consistent):