Evening Discussion of CV wave

[Derek Ortt]

Finally wrote one of these myself tonight, lol

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

Still not impressed as the atmosphere is not favorable at the present time

[Air Force Met]

I disagree. The atmosphere is by no means ideal, but it isn't unfavorable either. Shear is very low...the easterlies have relaxed and the system has slowed down some. The SAL is weakening in that area and it is embedded in a moist environment. It is still bringing in some drier air but this is lessening as it moves west. So...it's not ideal but also no unfavorable. It's sorta neutral with the excellent outflow being offset by the SAL. As the SAL continues to weaken and the HHP's increase along with the ssts...I imagine the see-saw will lean more in favor of the good ventilation.

Does that mean it is going to develop? Who knows. We've all seen well organized systems with a perfect environment not go...and then seen some really crappy systems with a not so great environment go off. With the NAO going south...I think it has a good chance.

[*StOrmsPr*]

looking at the IR image there is new convection developing near were the center appears to be around 12n . and Dvorak classification of TO WEAK.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

"The atmosphere is by no means ideal, but it isn't unfavorable either."

I agree with you conditions not perfect but not so bad eather.

[ameriwx2003]

Air force Met , I agree.I also agree about scratching my head about systems that seemingly should devlope and don't and systems that develope in rather hostile conditons. Also. I have been trying to do some studying on the NAO but alot of info I find ont he internet it seems deals with its effect during wintertime. Would you know of any info on the net that you could pass along to help me better understand the NAO:):0. thanks in advance:)

[Air Force Met]

The "X" factor. What makes some of them go...and some of them no. When the NAo goes negative...it's usually a good sign that something will try to develop. You ahev to also factor in the MJO...and of course CHAOS. LOL

[Air Force Met]

This site has some general info:
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO/

[ameriwx2003]

Airforce Met.. thanks for the info, yea I hear you about the factors and chaos lol. I have heard we are about to gon into a negative phaSE again for the NAO. I haven't heard much yet this year about the MJO though. Anyways, thanks again for the link:):)

[Anonymous]

The negative phase of the MJO enhances development will the positive phase inhibits development.

[ameriwx2003]

Jason, yes I am aware of the phases of the MJO and what they do.:) I was wondering when and if a negative phase might affect the Atlantic Basin. I haven't heard anything this year on that aspect:):)