ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Thunder44]

If it did die, it'd be probably one of the biggest busts I've ever seen, only Chris 2006 would come close to comparing.

This is not my quote either.

[wxman57]

Thunder44.. unless you are audioslave on Jeff Marsters blog they copied you word for word.:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1278
post 3491

Whoever that audioslave is on Jeff Masters' blog is copying my posts here word-for-word. Anyone know who this is?

[KWT]

True it does havge a far bigger region of moisture to work with then TD2 and I don't think it will die but its not going to get going as rapidly as some of the models have been suggesting.

Then again most of this mornings models now do most of the deepening once its past abouit 45W which makes sense.

[Stormcenter]

Well it looked better yesterday then it does this morning.

By the way TD#2 is trying to make a comeback by it's having serious issues
with the dry sir.

[StormClouds63]

I don't want to go off-topic, but in addition to Earl (2004) and Danny (2006), how about Debbie (2000) as another all-time bust? The Keys were lucky with that one!

The overall structure of 90L not as impressive this morning. To echo what others have said, this may not be such a sure thing after all.

[AtlanticWind]

While there is some easterly shear, there is plenty of moisture in the envelope. In addition, the size and structure of the wave envelope is larger and much better defined than TD2 (which, by the way, doesn't look bad).

Unfortunately I don't see this one dissapating.

MW

Yes , I agree i thimk it is very likely to be a hurricane down the road , also I am getting more concerned about Td 12 . Do you think this could threaten the islands or the US?

[tgenius]

Thunder44.. unless you are audioslave on Jeff Marsters blog they copied you word for word.:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1278
post 3491

Whoever that audioslave is on Jeff Masters' blog is copying my posts here word-for-word. Anyone know who this is?

I'm sure you can report it to Wunderground and probably get him banned?

[Gustywind]

90L ...
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1145 UTC 12.1N 27.9W T1.5/1.5 90L

[KWT]

You can see the center quite easily on the vis imagery as well which is a bonus and the convection isn't that far removed yet...

Still this could be good or bad news...good if it fizzles but bad because given the globals are super keen on strengthening down the road its bound to get into better conditions and if its weaker and thus further south then progged....well that also means tracks like the ECM are going to be flat out wrong.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL

20090814.1230.90LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-121N-265W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

[srainhoutx]

Thunder44.. unless you are audioslave on Jeff Marsters blog they copied you word for word.:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1278
post 3491

Whoever that audioslave is on Jeff Masters' blog is copying my posts here word-for-word. Anyone know who this is?

Welcome to world of instant access wxman57. Nothing is sacred anymore. I see this all the time now.

[Gustywind]

While there is some easterly shear, there is plenty of moisture in the envelope. In addition, the size and structure of the wave envelope is larger and much better defined than TD2 (which, by the way, doesn't look bad).

Unfortunately I don't see this one dissapating.

MW

Yes , I agree i thimk it is very likely to be a hurricane down the road , also I am getting more concerned about Td 12 . Do you think this could threaten the islands or the US?

TD 12 ?lol TD 2 i tkink just a mistake...

[cycloneye]

This mornings analysis from Dr Jeff Masters of 90L.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2009

A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.

Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.

[AtlanticWind]

While there is some easterly shear, there is plenty of moisture in the envelope. In addition, the size and structure of the wave envelope is larger and much better defined than TD2 (which, by the way, doesn't look bad).

Unfortunately I don't see this one dissapating.

MW

Yes , I agree i thimk it is very likely to be a hurricane down the road , also I am getting more concerned about Td 12 . Do you think this could threaten the islands or the US?

TD 12 ?lol TD 2 i tkink just a mistake...

2 , 12 , whatever it takes

[Derek Ortt]

Ah yes Chris now that was a MAJOR bust.

Chris was NOT a major bust from the models. The human forecasts also only had that as a low end cat 1 hurricane. It was a relatively minor bust. Global models never did much with Chris

[KWT]

Derek, what do you think of the future of 90L?

The models are stil lbeing really really suggestive with this, with nearly all developing what seems to be fairly strong system down the road?

Do you think they are being too agressive for the first 72hrs or so?

[Stormcenter]

Chris IMO was a major bust based on the endless media coverage and
prediction by many on air Mets that it would be possibly strengthen
to a Cat.3 storm in the GOM.

Ah yes Chris now that was a MAJOR bust.

Chris was NOT a major bust from the models. The human forecasts also only had that as a low end cat 1 hurricane. It was a relatively minor bust. Global models never did much with Chris

[Gustywind]

Ah yes Chris now that was a MAJOR bust.

Chris was NOT a major bust from the models. The human forecasts also only had that as a low end cat 1 hurricane. It was a relatively minor bust. Global models never did much with Chris

Derek do you tkink that 90L could pose a threat for the Wind or Leewars island? What are your recents thoughts about this feature? Tkanks a lot my friend us in the Carib continue to monitor closely the evolution of this feature.

[wxman57]

\
That's not my quote. It's wxman57's.

Good observation. That's what I see. Shear is hitting it - the same shear that ripped TD 2 apart. The center is east of the convection. And that convection is still rather weak. I don't think it'll be classified as a TD today unless some major changes occur during the day. And I'm starting to wonder if it'll survive the shear.

wxman... they are then taking your words verbatim.[/quote]

I saw. And it is the same shear that hit TD 2. I didn't say it was 30 kts, just that it's easterly shear. Some wishcaster at his blog is disappointed that 90L isn't already a depression. So who's copying my posts here and posting them as his/her own at Jeff's site?

[KWT]

Looks to me like the shear will be this way now till about 40W and so looks like this won't be a cape verde storm afterall, which also raises the threat once again of a landfall further down the line sadly.

We shall have to wait and see...still if ex-TD2 is still going and still present in its small state then thats suggesive to me that this system probably won't die away, at least the broad circulation anyway.