ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Where about it settles its center within that mass of convection is going to be soooo important to your area of the world Cycloneye, the further north the better but I think its still between 11.5-12N?
Though it could move towards the deeper convection as well possibly.

Also I agree this likely wil lbe a tropical depression later today. History shows once they make it to about 30W before being upgraded the odds of a NE Caribbean start to sharply rise.

[cycloneye]

Another PR hit by GFS in its 06z run.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Meso]

Not a fun run for the N.O folks

[KWT]

The only good news cycloneye is it would only require a slightly further north track on this run and you'll be ok so we have plenty of time.

As you say though Meso this is not a nice run at all, like Geroges but is anything slightly worse as the center stays offshore. I'm still doubtful of the longer range GFS but thats now 3 runs in a row its suggested the possiblity of a gulf landfall so its something to keep an eye on if nothing else!

[ronjon]

Yet again the big difference comes from the forward speed. The ECM is *still* only reaching about 43W by 96hrs which is even slower then the 12z run yesterday. This means its getting scooped up by the weakness. You can see it does drag the storm a little more to the WNW on the other models BUT the other models are far enough west to avoid getting scooped up totally but the ECM is soooo slow it arrives to late and is scooped up totally.

KWT, I presume its being pulled up by the first mid-atlantic trough but when I look at the 500 mb charts from the ECM it turns it due north into a rather strong mid-level ridge. Something doesn't look right. What I did notice from yesterdays runs, however, it that it is trending more toward the GFS upper air pattern over the eastern Conus with a much weaker trough over the Great Lakes and stronger western Atlantic ridging in the 7-10 daytime frame.

[Thunder44]

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

[StJoe]

wow...really starting to amp up this morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

looks pretty impressice on the water wapor loop!

[KWT]

Yeah actually that is true it does seem to be a little bit lopsided at the moment Thunder, the convection is indeed nearly all on the western side. Still it is expected to move into more favorable waters to the west and it'd be worrying if all the models missed any shear in the Atlantic, the fact all of them power up 90L is suggesting favorable conditions.

Still I suspect we will have TD3 today.

[cycloneye]

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

Do you have the QS?

[gatorcane]

its south of you, Sandy

I wish one of these would just have Miami in the crosshairs. Then we'd probably be safe

Exactly my thought. If South Florida is a target about this far out it usually doesn't happen. Since its near South Florida run after run (to the south of south florida or east through the Bahamas)......who knows. Plenty of time to watch still but the timeframe is closing in now under 220 hours.

ECMWF continues to be way right and recurves this thing safely NE of the Leewards. What the heck is the ECMWF seeing? I'm guessing its because it moves it at a snail's pace through the MDR and thinks ridging builds in over the Rockies and a big trough sets up along the Eastern CONUS --- latest next week into the weekend.

[alan1961]

Got a reasonable moisture envelope around 90L but the dry air to the north and ahead is forever lurking as usual which as really destroyed TD2, but 90L its making an attempt at developing so we'll see.

[cyclonic chronic]

those poor people on Hispaniola, especially Haiti, if this run pans out. they were hammered last year. if this doesnt find a weakness, i fear we'll be retiring another A storm.

[Fego]

Yesterday,TV Met Ada Monzon of Univision in Puerto Rico told the audience that this weekend is a good time to start preparing for a close call or maybe a direct hit as the models haved been very consistant in bringing Ana close or over Puerto Rico.

She said, they say. Here what the National Weather Service in San Juan say about 90L, in their Area Forecast Discussion

MEANWHILE...IN THE LONG TERM...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZE. THE NHC GIVES A HIGH
CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...AND THIS IS THE PERFECT
TIME TO GO OVER YOUR SEASONAL PLANS AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE READY

[Thunder44]

The things I see that might prevent this system from being upgraded today is if the easterly shear over it now increases. Most of the convection this morning appears to be west of the center. Also the center still looks broad and not entirely closed on the QS.

Do you have the QS?

Another image was posted already. But I was really looking at this one:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas124.png

[Fego]

A friend in our weather forum in PR posted this graphic and I will like to share it here, if is possible. That's one of the reasons why tv met Monzon said about to be aware, imo.

[bob rulz]

I think the media will be having a field day with this one. I can already imagine it being compared to Andrew with it being the first storm in an El Nino year in the middle of August. If (and likely when) this becomes a hurricane, we might not hear the end of it from the media.

Yea and the media is going to do more damage than the storm itself.

Better the media do damage than the storm.

A friend in our weather forum in PR posted this graphic and I will like to share it here, if is possible. That's one of the reasons why tv met Monzon said about to be aware, imo.

Obviously the models will still wobble a lot, but am I correct in assuming that that's a remarkably tight model cluster for that far out? Or is it about normal?

[Gustywind]

A friend in our weather forum in PR posted this graphic and I will like to share it here, if is possible. That's one of the reasons why tv met Monzon said about to be aware, imo.

Tkanks Fego

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Got to admit that the GFS ensembles are impressive, theres very good agreement there for a generally WNW track.

It shows two things. Firstly not one shows anything like what the ECM shows and secondly the 06z operational run is also something of an outlier with only one run heading into the gulf.

Most of them look a lot like Floyd/Hugo to me...

[KWT]

Still not too strong worded, the idea is that it may become a TD in the next day or two is suggesting they don't think it'll be upgraded just yet.

Center is about 12.3, which is a little lower then GFDL's 12.6 it was expecting at this time but its not really much different.