ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[shah8]

You know what?

Let's just say that if a TUTT doesn't show up to save the day, it's increasingly likely that we are going to be feeling sorry for someone.

[Evil Jeremy]

Agh, Fail. My bad lol. I got confused. I need some sleep lol.

[lonelymike]

HRWF Cat 3 East of the NE Leewards in about 5 days

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 140553
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Meso]

00z CMC for 240 hours... Slam bang into Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

00z CMC for 240 hours... Slam bang into Florida.

hehe.. now were stretching it .. lol

the 240 hr cmc .. lol i can barely look at the 5day ...

well it is also holding the ridge in place like the gfs.. lol

[floridasun78]

this look like could be close call what model show high building west no weakness in high that mean PR will need watch it very carefully and VI i hope people their watch it ready take action next few days

[floridasun78]

it look like model not making high have any weakness that look like not good news for VI and or PR maybe us if high stay put

[Thunder44]

The 0z/14 Euro shows a recurve again. This time further east around 60W:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[blp]

00Z EURO showing major weakness in the ridge. Fish storm. Euro is to be respected but something doesn't seem right. We will see....


120hr has this already at 18N 45W.


216hr gone fishing.

[paintplaye]

00Z EURO showing major weakness in the ridge. Fish storm. Euro is to be respected but something doesn't seem right. We will see....


120hr has this already at 18N 45W.


216hr gone fishing.

Yea for this to happen, you will need to have a NW track from here on out. I don't see that happening yet.

[Thunder44]

This the 0z/14 Ukmet. Looks like it agrees with the other with at least a hit for the Northern Leeward Islands:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHE ... kloop.html

[littlevince]

eIR loop from 0100z to 0730z

Big File (3 Mb)





First visible:

[knotimpaired]

Well all I can say is that I pray that whoever said it was going to be a Cat 3 in 5 days west of PR is wrong.

Our island has 1 "official" hurricane shelter that holds about 250 people and we have a population of 9,000. I am sure some of the churches will independently open but they are all very small. I guess it is time to call the mayor's office to ask them what they plan to do about this.

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[littlevince]

Last quikscat (0717z) overlay with Vis (0800z)

[KWT]

Looks like its getting there, the center seems to be consolidating further north then yesterday but the center is probably wobbling around depandant on the deep convection.

However I'm sure we will have a tropical depression today now we finally have convection over the center.

[KWT]

Yet again the big difference comes from the forward speed. The ECM is *still* only reaching about 43W by 96hrs which is even slower then the 12z run yesterday. This means its getting scooped up by the weakness. You can see it does drag the storm a little more to the WNW on the other models BUT the other models are far enough west to avoid getting scooped up totally but the ECM is soooo slow it arrives to late and is scooped up totally.

[cycloneye]

TD 3 later today IMO.

[wx247]

Quite a bit more convection around 90L than when I went to bed last night. I do agree that we are getting closer to TD status.