ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Brent]

How can you put any weight on a model (GFS) that goes from the upper East Coast to Florida to Alabama in one day......LMAOF!!!!!!!!!

I look for trends in long-range and 2 runs in a row in the Gulf is a trend IMO. It might trend the other way tomorrow but for now that's about all we have to go on.

[RL3AO]

Why does anyone care what the GFS says past 180 hours?

As was mentioned above, the GFS is consistently hitting the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. The fact that you would throw out an entire model run because it keeps changing what it does in 14 days is ridiculous.

[Hurricaneman]

anything beyond 7 days is garbage because some uncertain things happen in a model, this may or may not be the final solution

[Stormcenter]

Have you been keeping up with the GFS lately....enough said.

Garbage run IMO.

Wow the GFS is starting to hate the Gulf Coast too.

Just wondering, what is your thinking behind this run? Why do you think this one is garbage?

[Gustywind]

Yesterday,TV Met Ada Monzon of Univision in Puerto Rico told the audience that this weekend is a good time to start preparing for a close call or maybe a direct hit as the models haved been very consistant in bringing Ana close or over Puerto Rico.

Pretty affirmative like that?, hummm not so good Luis! Nobody is talking about that in Guadeloupe, our Pro mets are speaking about ex TD2...

[Stormcenter]

It's a credible trend when it's another model maybe but the GFS 13 days out.....no way.

How can you put any weight on a model (GFS) that goes from the upper East Coast to Florida to Alabama in one day......LMAOF!!!!!!!!!

I look for trends in long-range and 2 runs in a row in the Gulf is a trend IMO. It might trend the other way tomorrow but for now that's about all we have to go on.

[Wx_Warrior]

better to see it coming at you now (200hrs+) than be in the 3 day cone!

[RL3AO]

Who cares what the GFS says 13 days out?

The fact that its constantly drilling Puerto Rico in 7 days is what people should be focusing on.

[Scorpion]

Who cares what the GFS says 13 days out?

The fact that its constantly drilling Puerto Rico in 7 days is what people should be focusing on.

Totally agreed. The truncation after hour 180 just makes the accuracy horrendous.

[Macrocane]

I think that people living in the gulf should care I mean, it has no consistency at this time but it is a possibility, panic is no good obviously, it's just that people on the GOM have to keep an eye on it and wait to see what happens on the next few days.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think the media will be having a field day with this one. I can already imagine it being compared to Andrew with it being the first storm in an El Nino year in the middle of August. If (and likely when) this becomes a hurricane, we might not hear the end of it from the media.

[Ptarmigan]

This one bears watching, especially next week.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC GFDL

WHXX04 KWBC 140518
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 23.8 270./ 7.0
6 12.2 25.7 280./18.4
12 12.4 27.4 275./16.8
18 12.2 29.5 264./20.9
24 11.8 30.7 253./11.8
30 11.7 31.4 263./ 7.3
36 11.8 32.5 272./10.5
42 12.0 33.6 281./11.0
48 12.1 35.2 276./16.2
54 12.0 36.8 264./14.7
60 12.6 38.1 294./14.8
66 13.1 39.9 286./18.3
72 13.9 41.7 295./18.5
78 14.5 43.8 285./21.0
84 15.1 45.8 286./20.8
90 15.5 47.8 281./19.9
96 15.9 49.6 282./17.3
102 16.2 51.2 282./15.6
108 16.7 52.8 286./16.5
114 17.1 54.5 285./16.3
120 17.4 55.9 280./13.8
126 17.8 57.4 287./15.3

[paintplaye]

I think the media will be having a field day with this one. I can already imagine it being compared to Andrew with it being the first storm in an El Nino year in the middle of August. If (and likely when) this becomes a hurricane, we might not hear the end of it from the media.

Yea and the media is going to do more damage than the storm itself.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC slams into the Lesser Antilles as run ends.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Evil Jeremy]

00 HWRF shows a huge recurve on this run. Completely misses the Islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

00 HWRF shows a huge recurve on this run. Completely misses the Islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

hwrf is out to lunch this year.. it had td2 re curving tomorrow.. lol

gfdl is much slower and more west..

[Aric Dunn]

wait hwrf.. does not recurve....

its actually more west and slower as well...

[cycloneye]

That is the run for ex TD2

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00 HWRF shows a huge recurve on this run. Completely misses the Islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Dont know what happened there..Go to this link, it shows a monster hurricane in a general direction to the northern islands...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation