ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Hurricaneman]

I think this is finally starting to get going, but still has to sustain the convection before it can be upgraded

[RL3AO]

does anyone one know about when will we know weather it will make it in the gom or not?

Should have a good idea in 10 days or so.

[HouTXmetro]

yes i do, i was just asking cause i hear about a high pressure ridge building in possibly pushing it west

Who knows? Every storm is different but who would have thought Ike would defy climatology, start at a relatively high latitude and way west, southwest and then into the Texas Coast. Just going to have to wait and see.

[rrm]

thank you for the replies just trying to learn

[meteorologyman]

Question Meteorologist: During the birth of a tropical cyclone do convection typically start in the NW quaderant of circulation or does it variy for every storm? In this case it looks like it's cinvection is on the NW as others had mention. Reason why I ask is because NE quaderant is the strongest part of the cyclone so I thought that is where it starts it spin or convection

[artist]

thank you for the replies just trying to learn

welcome rrm! ask all you would like to as those with more knowledge are usually great in helping us amateurs with any questions we may have.

[Aric Dunn]

Question Meteorologist: During the birth of a tropical cyclone do convection typically start in the NW quaderant of circulation or does it variy for every storm? In this case it looks like it's cinvection is on the NW as others had mention. Reason why I ask is because NE quaderant is the strongest part of the cyclone so I thought that is where it starts it spin or convection

its all dependent on the storm and the environment it is in. for instance if there is dry air to the north or shear or cooler sst's then that can affect convective burst. Also is a circulaiton is not well developed there may be areas with greater convergence than others which would give rise to burst of convection on one side or the other.

As for the case with 90L, we have some easterly shear a little dry air and a broad surface circulation which is possibly causing most of the convective bursts on the western portion of the circulation, that area is at the moment the area with most low level convergence but as the circulation tightens then we should see a more symmetric appearance.. hope that helps a little.

[Blown Away]

That's right over me but it's quite far into the future

IMO it's all about forward speed. When the GFS has a slower forward speed it's a recurve from SFL, when it speeds her up it's a SFL area landfall. Yesterday when the GFS was showing SFL landfalls it was on 8/24, now it's showing landfall early am on 8/23. I'm getting a feeling I will be spending many hours over the next 10 days in front of this computer. The "A" storm potentially near SFL on 8/24 is a scary thought.
It's been 4 years since I had to get the shutters out, myself and the critters that live under them are hoping we can go another year w/o having to put them up!

[Blown Away]

any chance this thing makes it to texas?

After Ike's track, there is always a chance!

[cycloneye]

Starting to appear at the SSD floater pic.

[Nederlander]

any chance this thing makes it to texas?

I am actually looking more at the wave over the eastern caribbean right now than 90L. Could be a player in the GOM next week. Not entirely convinced itll develop into much of anything, but its looking more impressive the longer it sticks around, even having to deal with the 2 ULL's..

[Derek Ortt]

no need to worry about the eastern Caribbean wave. Convection is not everything

90L is the one that needs to be monitored

[Brent]

[Aric Dunn]

wow GFS is way farther south .. this run..

[PTrackerLA]

I noticed that too, this could run the Caribbean in this run.

[Wx_Warrior]

FYI...going back to 18z, it's nearly the exact position.

[cycloneye]

And a tad slower too.

[Brent]

WOW!

[Scorpion]

GFS loves destroying Puerto Rico

[Nederlander]

Just goes to show how far models can shift in one day. Thats why the ProMets consistently say that models can be really shady past four or five days out, much less 10 or 12 days out. This system first looked like a east coast skirter, now looking more and more like a Caribbean threat. But as I said, models could shift back north tomorrow, or further south... It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks though..