ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[gatorcane]

Luis, 18Z HWRF also shows a west bend towards the end. You can see the surface High building in across the Western Atlantic also. That is a very close call there.

At this point both GFDL and HWRF -- two very reliable models -- are building in ridging around 50-60W that keep this from recurving. Leewards will be a close call indeed should this run verify.

It's going to be an interesting next 7-14 days to say the least

[AtlanticWind]

Of course almost anything can happen in the tropics, but does anyone see a chance that this one could fizzle like td2, or do you feel it is a pretty sure bet to make a (major) hurricane?

I would bet this should be at the very least a named storm and chances are a hurricane.

[KWT]

Yp no model other then the HWRF comes even close to the ECM outcome. The CMC briefly tries then decides to bend back west.

So the ECM is the outlier here...however the ECM is a very good model when it comes to the mid ranges and so its not to be ruled out.

[cycloneye]

The only thing I saw in the 12z run of ECMWF was that it was slower than the others.

[CrazyC83]

Yp no model other then the HWRF comes even close to the ECM outcome. The CMC briefly tries then decides to bend back west.

So the ECM is the outlier here...however the ECM is a very good model when it comes to the mid ranges and so its not to be ruled out.

I agree - definitely don't count it out. When two ridges are involved, there is always a chance there could be a gap between them, or a trough could form, or one could break down enough to allow a hole for the system to go through.

[ronjon]

18Z GFS holds the trough back with a SW tilt from the Great Lakes into TX while maintianing ridging over the western Atlantic - biggest difference from 12Z run. It'll change numerous times but we'll have to look for the trend over the next few days on that ridge/trough situation.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye thats something Derek mentioned earlier as well, the ECM is too slow with this system and thats making a difference as 90L gets caught in the weakness, whilst on the GFS its already mainly past the weakness so it only slightly lifts out. The rest are all somewhere in the middle.

[sunnyday]

Thank you both for your opinions on a possible hurricane. I'm going to held out for non -development, but you will probably be right.

[ronjon]

Pretty zonal 500 mb flow with solid ridging in latest GFS when the storm nears the islands.

[Brent]

I'll be completely shocked to see anything less than a hurricane out of this, regardless of track. There is way too much model consensus and the storm has amazing structure, is much larger than TD 2, and is further south in more favorable conditions.

Deep convection has blown up close to the center.

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

Broad circulation around 11.2N 24.4W.

[Lurker]

SHHHH.....Don't wake it up.

I'll be completely shocked to see anything less than a hurricane out of this, regardless of track. There is way too much model consensus and the storm has amazing structure, is much larger than TD 2, and is further south in more favorable conditions.

Deep convection has blown up close to the center.

[cycloneye]

If this trend of organization continues,I wont be surprised to see TD 3 by tommorow morning.

[KWT]

Still needs a lot more convection though over the center IMO Brent, though I agree its structure is pretty impressive.

As I said before if this can reach about 32-33W then the risk for the NE Caribbean pretty much becomes 50-50, the east coast also becomes at greater risk as well. We shall see...

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 90, 2009081400, , BEST, 0, 115N, 240W, 25, 1009

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[wxman57]

New Qscat out by the way people...Very interesting as it seems like the center has relocated or possibly even a new one is forming a little to the south closer to the deep convection, can see a clear wind shift at 12N with a circulation further south.

Very interesting!

The QS images really aren't that precise for locating a center, particularly when it was covered by rain (rain flagged areas all across center). Could be off a degree or two, easily.

[CrazyC83]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 90, 2009081400, , BEST, 0, 115N, 240W, 25, 1009

Status is still a disturbance? Since it doesn't look like a depression yet.

[Brent]

Still needs a lot more convection though over the center IMO Brent, though I agree its structure is pretty impressive.

As I said before if this can reach about 32-33W then the risk for the NE Caribbean pretty much becomes 50-50, the east coast also becomes at greater risk as well. We shall see...

Yeah I agree, it needs more convection, but if trends continue I could easily see a TD tomorrow sometime.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC BAMS

Moving at 270 degrees.

549
WHXX01 KWBC 140032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC FRI AUG 14 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090814 0000 090814 1200 090815 0000 090815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 24.0W 12.3N 26.8W 13.1N 30.4W 13.4N 34.8W
BAMD 11.5N 24.0W 11.6N 26.8W 11.4N 29.5W 11.3N 32.3W
BAMM 11.5N 24.0W 11.9N 26.8W 12.3N 29.7W 12.7N 33.2W
LBAR 11.5N 24.0W 11.6N 26.4W 12.0N 29.4W 12.2N 32.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090816 0000 090817 0000 090818 0000 090819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 39.6W 12.8N 49.3W 12.0N 57.3W 10.5N 63.6W
BAMD 11.3N 35.2W 12.3N 41.2W 14.4N 47.3W 16.6N 53.4W
BAMM 12.9N 37.2W 12.7N 45.2W 12.3N 51.0W 13.7N 55.0W
LBAR 12.6N 36.9W 13.1N 45.5W 13.5N 50.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 77KTS 86KTS 93KTS
DSHP 60KTS 77KTS 86KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 24.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 22.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 21.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

New Qscat out by the way people...Very interesting as it seems like the center has relocated or possibly even a new one is forming a little to the south closer to the deep convection, can see a clear wind shift at 12N with a circulation further south.

Very interesting!

The QS images really aren't that precise for locating a center, particularly when it was covered by rain (rain flagged areas all across center). Could be off a degree or two, easily.

Yeah thats fair enough, I suppose its even worse with a borad circulation like we have anyway.

I think its still not quite there yet Crazy, getting closer and its structure cannot be ignored but I think tomorrow is most likely when we are going to see TD3.