ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Brent]

Keys and then Panhandle

[Sanibel]

It's really foolish to micro-predict far out landfalls, BUT that last run looks like a near miss south of a category 2-3 of Puerto Rico and a bad hit on - edit: Next run recurves a hit on Dominican.

[PTrackerLA]

Geez, goes through the keys and hits near Panama City.

[Ivanhater]

Geez, goes through the keys and hits near Panama City.

Yep. Faster on this run and the trough lifts out and does not break the ridge down. Ridge stays over the Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula..This will change over the next few days.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not convinced Florida Ivan? Come on now....LOL

[KWT]

Yeah but to be honest I think 90L's circulation is probably too dominant for that to happen, still who knows.

18z GFS still suggesting a massive hit for the NE Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

According to the GFS, a hurricane going over Hispaniola would have no impact on the system.

[Ivanhater]

Not convinced Florida Ivan? Come on now....LOL

I'm not convinced of anything this far out lol. Everyday has shown a gulf or east coast threat. Both have an equal chance this early in the game. As always the timing of the trough( and how amplified it is) as well as the speed is key. The euro is oddly slow with this system.

[KWT]

It would cause a lot of issues for the system though its moving at a decent clip.It seems like the 18z runs are the most keen on the Gulf, though I'd be very surprised if it gets there...still stranger things have happened.

Anyway still have a long way to go yet, we can't be sure its even going to impact the NE Caribbean, thats our main concern.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed. latest EURO turns way too early.

FYI....the last few GFS 18z has been NOLA, Bermuda, and now Fla panhandle....

[brunota2003]

We have to have a system first, before even worrying about any of that verifying.

[Hurricaneman]

Agreed. latest EURO turns way too early.

FYI....the last few GFS 18z has been NOLA, Bermuda, and now Fla panhandle....

I have a bad feeling the final solution will lie in the middle

[Wx_Warrior]

One would think so....NOLA-Bermuda.....yep, middle is the only choice.

[brunota2003]

Heh...Isabel at first was Gulf coast to Bermuda...she chose the middle...NC on up through the NE

[KWT]

Yeah quite a large middle ground really!

Support is stronger for the GFS but the ECM is a very stubborn model and will not back down, in fact I think its the Joe B of the modelling world lol!

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps..

[Hurricaneman]

I think in reality, the gfs is too fast and the euro is too slow thats where I came to my conclusion even though its so far out in time no forecast at this time for 10 days out would make sense

[ronjon]

I looked at the 500 mb pattern for the 12Z Euro and frankly could not see anything trough-wise to support that early recurve. Now around day 8, both the GFS and Euro have a trough carving out over the Great Lakes but the trough is deeper and further east for the Euro than GFS - about 300-400 miles further east. That's the difference I see so far. Of course, these upper air patterns are hard to predict more than a week out. I also think that these really strong hurricanes sometimes tend to "pump up" the ridging. The only good thing about really large strong storms - the models tend to do a really good job on tracks from 3 days out.

[lonelymike]

GFS long range is junk. Not very accurate at that range. Then again what is? But the 18z should be enough to keep the boys at the NWS office in Tally jumping for a while

[srainhoutx]

With slow development, the general western motion will continue for the foreseeable future. The cyclone that guidance has been advertising will not happen quickly IMHO.