ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Just out of interest I've put 27W as a starting point for this reaching TD status (may be wrong of course haha!) and put it within a hundred miles of 12/27 in August/September.

Whilst a lot do recurve there are quite a few that slam the NE Caribbean and about 5 that reach the USA's east coast however most do recurve. So in this case it does seem like the NE Caribbean is the highest risk zone, along with Bermuda usually but we shall see.

[Sanibel]

GFDL looks like a big roller headed for Florida. (Unless it recurves like Floyd).

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

A slam to NE Caribbean.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.4N 24.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2009 11.4N 24.3W WEAK
12UTC 14.08.2009 11.3N 26.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2009 12.3N 29.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.08.2009 12.1N 32.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.08.2009 12.5N 35.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 12.6N 38.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2009 13.3N 42.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 14.2N 45.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 14.8N 49.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2009 15.3N 52.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2009 16.4N 56.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2009 16.7N 59.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Gustywind]

Hey that's "funny" or my eyes are deceiving me about 90L:
the TWO is mentionning code red meaning: A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, while the TWD is mentionning THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
Just a remark...
Any thoughts about "details" far away from the island
Anyone noticied that?

[JPmia]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


GFDL run doesn't show much to recurve it north...looks like it would continue WNW just north of PR

[KWT]

Yep thats pretty worrying as well, the UKMO tends to handle upper highs quite well I tend to find in the past, esp when they are in the decaying process.

Also yet another model jumping on the strong bandwagon.

[KWT]

The code red is the right one there Gustywind, I'm guessing they didn't have that information when they published that outlook!

UKMO also going for a powerful hurricane striking NE Caribbean, models are clustering on either a close shave or a direct hit it seems tonight.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS is the only model that does not have a strong hurricane.Tracks as a weak system towards Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS is the only model that does not have a strong hurricane.Tracks as a weak system towards Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

also shows TD 2 intensifying....isnt the NOGAPS run on a lower resolution than other models? even at that I never rely on the NOGAPS for guidance.....EURO for track then the GFS then the CMC...thats how I look for trends....right now the trend is NE islands it would seem...

[wxman57]

I thought that the climo map posted earlier looked a little strange, so I made my own starting where the center would be tomorrow morning (12N/27W - ish). I plotted all named storms that passed within 65nm of that point in August and September from 1851-2008. See below. Quite a different picture!! Most do turn out to sea, as the ECMWF has been forecasting. Only one (Frederic '79) entered the Gulf. Hugo is included, as well as Dora in '64.

[ROCK]

I thought that the climo map posted earlier looked a little strange, so I made my own starting where the center would be tomorrow morning (12N/27W - ish). I plotted all named storms that passed within 65nm of that point in August and September from 1851-2008. See below. Quite a different picture!! Most do turn out to sea, as the ECMWF has been forecasting. Only one (Frederic '79) entered the Gulf. Hugo is included, as well as Dora in '64.

given that historical data I would say the odds are Tx to FL Panhandle is not an issue.....now the islands, SFL and EC, that is a different story....

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF

Strong cane that is away from NE Caribbean but tracks close to Bermuda and then goes to Newfoundland.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Derek Ortt]

All good points but I still like those past historical tracks.

Hmm I think its a real option though stormcenter, look how many systems are in this position and go on to develop and end up being quite powerful hurricane down the line, quite a few given we are now in August.

I think odds on a major is quite high, though I'll hold back going any more extreme then that as I suspect there will be at least one shear pocket about that'll bring this down a peg or two at some point.

Stormcenter, yep agree with that point...but then again Ike was also not meant to hit Texas was it...
Also remember...its not a TD yet so that map doesn't really count for anything, yet!

that's the way to forecast... 40 years ago.
You cannot make a forecast off of historical tracks. You can only use the CURRENT synoptics/models as those affect the CURRENT storm

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro shows a strong recurve with a Bermuda and Nova Scotia threat:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[KWT]

ECM takes this well away from the caribbean islands, and well away from any land bar Bermuda...

What do the mets think of that run, I really think its way overdoing the weakness, esp given what all of the other models are suggesting!

Haha, good to see I've got wxman57 agreeing with that position of 27/12 haha!

[Frank2]

That's an interesting graphic - by the way, 90L really doesn't look very impressive to me at this point, when you consider how impressive TD 2 looked in the same area:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Yep but its by far and away the earliest to kick this system to the NW in the Atlantic, we shall see what the 0z models do and whether the GFS agrees...

Till then however I think the ECM is likely overdoing the weakness, can't deny its quite intent on shunting it out of the way though, the ECM is like Joe B, once it has em it will latch onto it and stick for dear life, right or wrong!

[Derek Ortt]

the EC also has this moving at a snail's pace and only has this to 42W in 96 hours

that seems suspicious to me

[KWT]

Derek, yep that seems to be a little slow though not much slower then the 12z GFS to be honest, which is around 45-46W.

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track.

AL, 90, 2009081318, , BEST, 0, 117N, 233W, 25, 1009, DB