ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[george_r_1961]

Ouch, shear moved convection to the SW and rapidly dissipated it.

I dont think you will be flying into this one.

[HURAKAN]

Convection should develop with D-max.

[capepoint]

I'll give this one a PO on the POOF scale.......

[tgenius]

WOW, hit hard.

This almost looks like a naked swirl!

[cycloneye]

The big wave to its east sucked the heart from the TD.

[Tropics Guy]

It almost Poofed out once before and then made a comeback, maybe it can do it again later tonight or tomorrow, otherwise TD#2 may be toast.

[wxman57]

The big wave to its east sucked the heart from the TD.

More like blew than sucked. You can loop a WV image and see the burst of air aloft moving away from the disturbance near the coast of Africa just sweep across the depression, tearing it apart. With such a big system to the east, and with continued outflow across TD 2, this may be the end.

[capepoint]

kinda wishin the big one behind it POOFs too.......

[george_r_1961]

The big wave to its east sucked the heart from the TD.

More like blew than sucked. You can loop a WV image and see the burst of air aloft moving away from the disturbance near the coast of Africa just sweep across the depression, tearing it apart. With such a big system to the east, and with continued outflow across TD 2, this may be the end.

I think dissipation has occured. I do not see anything there resembling a tropical cyclone.

[TexasF6]

Greetings and salutations from drought striken Austin, Texas! Don't count TD2 out just yet. If it does not re-fire tonight...well......and whats with the "Mother of Katrina" talk for this probable invest? Which is looking ragged now....i'll try to be good and stick to topic next post.

[pojo]

Ouch, shear moved convection to the SW and rapidly dissipated it.

I dont think you will be flying into this one.

not for a while.... unless it poses a threat to Bermuda... and has developed. But with the high shear in the CARIB and SATL has been keeping all development to a minimum.

[gatorcane]

The big wave to its east sucked the heart from the TD.

More like blew than sucked. You can loop a WV image and see the burst of air aloft moving away from the disturbance near the coast of Africa just sweep across the depression, tearing it apart. With such a big system to the east, and with continued outflow across TD 2, this may be the end.

Yeah the system off Africa and this small entity will likely not coexist. The 12Z CMC run even has the big disturbance off Africa suck TD#2 into it.

What it tells me is that the system off Africa is already giving hints it has the potential to be a formidable system down the road, when it starts to really organize.

[Gustywind]

The big wave to its east sucked the heart from the TD.

More like blew than sucked. You can loop a WV image and see the burst of air aloft moving away from the disturbance near the coast of Africa just sweep across the depression, tearing it apart. With such a big system to the east, and with continued outflow across TD 2, this may be the end.

I think dissipation has occured. I do not see anything there resembling a tropical cyclone.

Let's wait a bit...or looks like already unhopefully, oh noo:darrow:

[clfenwi]

So... anyone care to predict/write their own the tag line for the 11 PM advisory? (5 PM tag line was ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... )

[HURAKAN]

Give the depression some time. Remember how it looked before it developed into a tropical depression. A lot of people were already throwing the towel. Something that you learn when you track for a few years is to be patient.

[brunota2003]

So... anyone care to predict/write their own the tag line for the 11 PM advisory? (5 PM tag line was ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... )

Depression has weakened...perhaps.

[gatorcane]

It appears as though the UKM ---- which has consistently been sending a weakened TD #2 as a wave into the Caribbean may just be verifying the best at this point.

[HURAKAN]

942
WTNT22 KNHC 130244
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 36.3W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 36.3W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.0N 37.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.1N 40.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.3N 42.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 44.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 23.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 36.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



743
WTNT32 KNHC 130245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

...DEPRESSION STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST OR ABOUT
800 MILES...1285 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS
TIME...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.0N 36.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[HURAKAN]

122
WTNT42 KNHC 130245
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009

AFTER BEING ON THE VERGE OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE A COMPLETE TURNAROUND AND IS
NOW VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF WHAT CONVECTION IS LEFT...AND A 2042 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS BARELY SHOWED 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
DIAGNOSING 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION AND KEEPS
IT FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR AND MARGINALLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW ONLY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM REACHING 45 KT...AND THIS IS STILL HIGHER THAN ICON...THE
CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY MODELS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY DAY 5...THIS TIME STRONGER AND FROM THE WEST...
AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AT THAT POINT. ALL OF
THIS IS MOOT IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP SOON...IN WHICH
CASE WE WOULD LIKELY TERMINATE ADVISORIES.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 260/12.
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...BUT THIS TURN COULD BE DELAYED IF THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE HWRF WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS CONSENSUS SINCE IT
HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT NORTHERN OUTLIER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.0N 36.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.0N 37.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.1N 40.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.3N 42.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 14.7N 44.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 16.5N 51.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 57.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 23.0N 64.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[clfenwi]

So... anyone care to predict/write their own the tag line for the 11 PM advisory? (5 PM tag line was ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... )

Depression has weakened...perhaps.

I like ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... myself. Has a "Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead" thing to it.