ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Models=Moving at 265 degrees

911
WHXX01 KWBC 121238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200 090814 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 33.3W 14.7N 35.2W 15.1N 37.8W 15.9N 40.6W
BAMD 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.7W 15.3N 38.4W 16.2N 41.2W
BAMM 14.4N 33.3W 14.9N 35.3W 15.4N 37.7W 16.2N 40.3W
LBAR 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.6W 15.2N 38.4W 16.1N 41.4W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 1200 090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 43.7W 18.6N 50.6W 21.8N 57.8W 25.5N 63.3W
BAMD 17.1N 43.9W 19.3N 48.9W 22.0N 53.9W 25.3N 57.1W
BAMM 16.9N 43.0W 18.8N 49.1W 21.5N 55.7W 25.1N 60.8W
LBAR 17.0N 44.3W 19.5N 49.9W 23.0N 54.9W 27.2N 59.3W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cyclonic chronic]

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/7400/63294402.png

[Derek Ortt]

BT has this as a TD

it is possible that the rain flag missed those high vectors. They are not matched by anything else (a 6Z microwave pass actually showed a weaker system than the sat estimates)

[cyclonic chronic]

[gtalum]

Why does HWRF have it hitting venezuala? fat fingers data typo?

That's the extrapolation of the current movement. HWRF is the other purple line way over the right of all the other models, showing the sharpest recurve.

[wxman57]

The QuikScat and the NRL WindSat pass (from 0801Z or 4 am this morning) both show 55 knot wind barbs, with several 50 knot and 45 knot barbs as well.

I think this thing is stronger than the Sat's think it is...anyone remember a few years ago we had a TD that the Sat's said was a TD, but Recon flew in it only to find out it was a 60 mph TS? I think this is something similar...

I don't see any unflagged QS barbs over 30 kts. Have to be careful with QS. The black barbs indicate rain contamination. This can cause a significant high bias in the wind estimates.

[cyclonic chronic]

convection on the west side getting that feathery look to it. what causes that? what does it mean? i remember this happening to felix b4 he intensified among other storms.

[wxman57]

For all of you using QuikSCAT wind graphics, I would HIGHLY recommend that you read the following paper by Michael Brennan, Christopher Hennon and Richard Knabb on "The Operational Use of QuikSCAT Ocean Surface Vector Winds at the National Hurricane Center".

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/brennan-et-al-wf09.pdf

[brunota2003]

The QuikScat and the NRL WindSat pass (from 0801Z or 4 am this morning) both show 55 knot wind barbs, with several 50 knot and 45 knot barbs as well.

I think this thing is stronger than the Sat's think it is...anyone remember a few years ago we had a TD that the Sat's said was a TD, but Recon flew in it only to find out it was a 60 mph TS? I think this is something similar...

I don't see any unflagged QS barbs over 30 kts. Have to be careful with QS. The black barbs indicate rain contamination. This can cause a significant high bias in the wind estimates.

Look at the QS on the previous page, there were plenty of unflagged vectors (I know the thing about the black BTW). My question is, what is the difference between the descending pass and the ascending pass? Is one surface and the other the upper levels, or?



Is image I was referring to.

[Blown Away]

Sure does look like TD2 is moving WSW and is S of the first NHC forecast point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[tolakram]

The convection is blowing off to the SW away from the LLC and appears to be diminishing. In my opinion this gives the impression that it's moving to the SW but the LLC looks to be heading west.

VIS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
AVN
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html


It appears to be moving through an area of increased shear.



Honestly, in the last few visible frames, the LLC looks pretty bad. Might be an illusion.

[x-y-no]

The satellite is in a polar orbit. Descending/ascending pass just refers to moving from north to south or from south to north.

[KWT]

Yep the shear does seem to be a bit of a problem, certainly enough to cause Td2 some issues and I also agree the LLC doesn't look as good as it has done before as well.

Will be interesting to see what happens.

[Lifesgud2]

Does this mean it could go poof? I think so..

[Evil Jeremy]

Shear has been getting to the storm, but I don't think it will poof. I don't think it will become Ana anytime today. Maybe tonight, but I think tomorrow it will become Ana. It needs to recover as the shear is really getting to it.

[KWT]

All depends on whether it manages to get into a lower area of shear. Still as long as it keeps developing convection near the center then it still should have a chance down the line. So far though good call from the GFDL with regards to little strengthening.

[CrazyC83]

12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L -- Atlantic

Supports 35 kt, but do the other data?

[Gustywind]

[David in FL]

Ok again guys I am new to weather. I am in school, but havent really started my classes yet..blah blah blah, but on the west side of the storm is that divergence? Just wondering, and if it is is it good as far as development goes? Also hasnt this storm dropped south a bit from 14.8 to 14.6? Is this good for the storm?

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site:
13 UTC:
14,4 N 33,3 W
1006 hpa 30 KTS

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi