ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Weatherfreak14]

come on guys...Nothing really happening until mid to late september if anything at all...

Thats really something to say when you have the tropics heating up as we speak at this moment...

[Tommedic]

Correct me, but aren't the models basing on TD or weak TS? So if this becomes a hurricane at near Islands, might we see a turn poleward? Just wondering....

[KWT]

Deeper convection does seem to be trying to form near the center, wil lbe interesting to see how long it can hold on to this latest burst for.

[Blown Away]

Correct me, but aren't the models basing on TD or weak TS? So if this becomes a hurricane at near Islands, might we see a turn poleward? Just wondering....

I believe there is a weakness in the ridge near 45-50W, a deeper system will likely respond to that weakness and move more poleward and a shallower system may continue farther W and beyond 50W there may be a building ridge that could send this system much farther W, maybe even the EC. Even if it makes it to the EC most of the models have the system as a TS.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

models are going westward ho.

With that Kind of setup, I remember looking at similiar at this date in 2004. When Bonnie had just formed, not believing all those models either. I really really hope they are wrong.


But history does prove these late start seasons take there anger out on florida

[cycloneye]

00 UTC best track still at TD status.

AL, 02, 2009081200, , BEST, 0, 148N, 311W, 25, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

725
WHXX01 KWBC 120034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 0000 090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 31.1W 15.1N 33.3W 15.3N 35.8W 15.5N 38.5W
BAMD 14.8N 31.1W 15.3N 33.3W 15.8N 35.9W 16.3N 39.0W
BAMM 14.8N 31.1W 15.4N 33.3W 15.8N 35.7W 16.3N 38.6W
LBAR 14.8N 31.1W 15.4N 33.4W 16.2N 36.0W 16.9N 39.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 0000 090815 0000 090816 0000 090817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 41.2W 17.0N 47.8W 19.1N 55.0W 21.8N 63.1W
BAMD 17.4N 41.8W 20.0N 46.6W 23.8N 49.8W 26.2N 49.8W
BAMM 17.0N 41.3W 18.8N 47.4W 21.3N 54.0W 24.4N 60.4W
LBAR 17.9N 42.1W 20.6N 47.4W 25.0N 50.6W 29.4N 47.2W
SHIP 41KTS 49KTS 49KTS 43KTS
DSHP 41KTS 49KTS 49KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 31.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 29.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 26.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[David in FL]

come on guys...Nothing really happening until mid to late september if anything at all...

We have two tropical waves in carrib, TD2, and the storm everyones worried about on coast of africa. I am no expert, and do pay attention, but seems like its heating up tp me. We finally have a storm that is showing some strength, and maybe coming behind it. Also arnt the westerlies calming down?

[clfenwi]

SAB's classification remains unchanged, however, it does place the center further south than they've ever fixed it:

11/2345 UTC 14.0N 30.8W T1.5/2.0 02L -- Atlantic

[caribepr]

Boy, I forgot what watching was like...I think I am getting a bookmarks headache and it's only been 2 days...

[gatorcane]

models are shifting westward. What I am hoping now is that this TD just opens back up into a wave and does nothing more OR deepens over the next few days and takes a track like the HWRF --- out to sea.

[David in FL]

SAB's classification remains unchanged, however, it does place the center further south than they've ever fixed it:

11/2345 UTC 14.0N 30.8W T1.5/2.0 02L -- Atlantic

If it goes further south does it have a better chance of reaching land?

[Gustywind]

SAB's classification remains unchanged, however, it does place the center further south than they've ever fixed it:

11/2345 UTC 14.0N 30.8W T1.5/2.0 02L -- Atlantic

it's a joke

[Derek Ortt]

I have no idea what SSD is seeing to be honest. I put the center very close to the ATCF position

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like it is jogging a bit more WSW over the past couple of hours but that was mentioned by the latest NHC discussion.

Is SSD factoring that into their position estimate?

[tgenius]

I'm sure if it keeps going more west that the news outlets are going to have a field day; It's been so quiet that they've actually been starting the wave train and with the new TD out there the scare factor is going up a bit.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather. Ok,

[David in FL]

I'm sure if it keeps going more west that the news outlets are going to have a field day; It's been so quiet that they've actually been starting the wave train and with the new TD out there the scare factor is going up a bit.

Yes it is. Starting to see more and more coverage about it.

[HURAKAN]

Just like last night, it's looking good

[Dr. Strangelove]

Accuweather. Ok,

That's pretty irresponsible. Someone who didn't know better would assume that's a forecast cone and that a US landfall is anticipated which is certainly not the case for TD2, nevermind the other system which isn't even over water yet. I really dislike Accuweather's sensationalism.