ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Cookie]

what dose the term fish stand for?

seen it used many times recently in this thread and others

A storm that curves out to sea without impacting land.

so would bertha 08 be a fish?

thanks for getting back to me guys

[Blown Away]

I'm not so sure TD #2 is going to be a fish. 18Z rolling in and GFS shifts more left in this run yet again with this system brushing the Leewards. We'll just need to see some more runs but the trend today is LEFT.

Looks like this may end up as a case where models want to curve it NW into a weakness that just doesn't happen.

IMO, maybe just S of due W over the past few hours. The GFS has been slowly shifting left on each run.

[KWT]

Yeah if it doesn't strengthen much past a minimal TS then it could well end up not that far north of the Caribbean afterall and with high pressure aloft it could yet be an issue perhaps to Florida, need to wait and see!

[gatorcane]

132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box but still a weak system

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

At 144 hours its passing just north of Hispaniola on a WNW to W course with a Bermuda ridge building in (if you look at the H5 charts you'll see it)

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: 132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

hummm with maybe Guadeloupe on the path first...experiencing this little boy

[gatorcane]

Well if the NHC puts any weight on the 18Z GFS, expect a shift left in the track again for the next advisory.

[wxman57]

I'm not so sure TD #2 is going to be a fish. 18Z rolling in and GFS shifts more left in this run yet again with this system hitting the Northernmost Leewards. We'll just need to see some more runs but the trend today is LEFT.

Looks like this may end up as a case where models want to curve it NW into a weakness that just doesn't happen.

I know it should change but look at the Bermuda ridge and where TD #2 is in 6 days. That setup suggests this thing could get under that Bermuda ridge and ride west......

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

gatorcane,

I agree with you on the good chance it'll clip the NE Caribbean. Models typically will try to recurve systems too quickly, particularly weak systems or systems that never really develop. But I think that the NHC may be too generous with its intensity forecast (up to 60 mph). I'm not sure this depression will survive. Probably has as good (if not better) a chance of weakening to a wave as reaching 60 mph. Just marginal conditions for development in its path.

I think this is the decoy storm for the system moving off Africa now. That's where my attention is. But I'll keep watching it as long as it has an LLC and some convection. If it actually gets going, then I'll get more concerned about the NE Caribbean (we have a number of clients there).

[gatorcane]

Wxman I always appreciate your feedback. I do agree with you that its the wave behind TD #2 that concerns me more as I have stated previously.

But with trends for TD #2 today, looks like I cannot just ignore this one anymore either. To me it seems possible both systems MAY be a threat to land at this point. The latest 18Z run puts TD #2 approaching the Bahamas with a Bermuda High present -- which can be problematic for those in Florida. I expect things to change though as far as runs are concerned. It's still pretty far out so just monitoring trends at this point.

My hope is that TD#2 just traverses west as an open wave instead which is basically a possiblity at this point.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: 132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box but still a weak system

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

At 144 hours its passing just north of Hispaniola on a WNW to W course with a Bermuda ridge building in (if you look at the H5 charts you'll see it)

The Hebert Box has always been my rule, until Ike, he destroyed my confidence in that theory.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: 132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box but still a weak system

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

At 144 hours its passing just north of Hispaniola on a WNW to W course with a Bermuda ridge building in (if you look at the H5 charts you'll see it)

The Hebert Box has always been my rule, until Ike, he destroyed my confidence in that theory.

You misunderstand what the box means. It is simply an observation that most hurricanes that have struck Florida have passed through the box. The box, itself, is not a predictor, only an indicator of a potential Florida threat. Ike passed through neither Hebert box, and it did not hit Florida.

Oh, and it's HEBERT not HERBERT. Paul Hebert is from New Iberia, LA, a few miles from where I grew up. His name is Cajun not British.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: 132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box but still a weak system

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

At 144 hours its passing just north of Hispaniola on a WNW to W course with a Bermuda ridge building in (if you look at the H5 charts you'll see it)

The Hebert Box has always been my rule, until Ike, he destroyed my confidence in that theory.

Thats because you have it backwards. The Hebert rule says major hurricanes that hit Florida usually passed through one of those two boxes, not that storms that pass though one of the two boxes usually hit Florida.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: 132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box but still a weak system

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

At 144 hours its passing just north of Hispaniola on a WNW to W course with a Bermuda ridge building in (if you look at the H5 charts you'll see it)

The Hebert Box has always been my rule, until Ike, he destroyed my confidence in that theory.

You misunderstand what the box means. It is simply an observation that most hurricanes that have struck Florida have passed through the box. The box, itself, is not a predictor, only an indicator of a potential Florida threat. Ike passed through neither Hebert box, and it did not hit Florida.

Oh, and it's HEBERT not HERBERT. Paul Hebert is from New Iberia, LA, a few miles from where I grew up. His name is Cajun not British.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

I should have been more clear. I could not believe that Ike went above the box than below Florida, didn't think it would happen. Andrew was the exception, he just missed the 20/60 to the N.

[David in FL]

LIke I said I am a tornado person, but if this storm reaches the carrib isnt it a bad sign for florida. Dont alot of these verda storms hit florida. Wasnt that was Andrew was? I am just trying to learn.

[Brent]

:uarrow: 132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box but still a weak system

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

At 144 hours its passing just north of Hispaniola on a WNW to W course with a Bermuda ridge building in (if you look at the H5 charts you'll see it)

Very interesting.

But my eye is on the TWO systems behind it which I think will be bigger stories(especially the lead one).

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: 132 hours very close to Puerto Rico passing through Herbert box but still a weak system

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

At 144 hours its passing just north of Hispaniola on a WNW to W course with a Bermuda ridge building in (if you look at the H5 charts you'll see it)

The Hebert Box has always been my rule, until Ike, he destroyed my confidence in that theory.

You misunderstand what the box means. It is simply an observation that most hurricanes that have struck Florida have passed through the box. The box, itself, is not a predictor, only an indicator of a potential Florida threat. Ike passed through neither Hebert box, and it did not hit Florida.

Oh, and it's HEBERT not HERBERT. Paul Hebert is from New Iberia, LA, a few miles from where I grew up. His name is Cajun not British.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

our friends in New Orleans prefer Bobby Hebert over Paul Hebert

[expat2carib]

He probably had some moving boxes in his time -that Herbert guy-.

One of the main respected names in hurricane research. But not the Hebert box guy.

Herbert Seymour Saffir (29 March 1917 – 21 November 2007) was the developer of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Saffir

[Blown Away]

You misunderstand what the box means. It is simply an observation that most hurricanes that have struck Florida have passed through the box. The box, itself, is not a predictor, only an indicator of a potential Florida threat. Ike passed through neither Hebert box, and it did not hit Florida.

Oh, and it's HEBERT not HERBERT. Paul Hebert is from New Iberia, LA, a few miles from where I grew up. His name is Cajun not British.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

our friends in New Orleans prefer Bobby Hebert over Paul Hebert

[/quote]

I think most Saints opponents preferred Bobby Hebert!!

[HURAKAN]

Back to TD 2. Convection appears to be increasing again

[Gustywind]

[Lifesgud2]

come on guys...Nothing really happening until mid to late september if anything at all...