ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[cycloneye]

West track continues.

[hurricanefloyd5]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 14:41:24 N Lon : 30:27:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.8 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -3.7C Cloud Region Temp : -29.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... t/adt.html

[jlauderdal]

[quote="cycloneye"]West track continues.

as expected, should continue next 48 hours then we will see what happens

[David in FL]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 111445
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 29.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 29.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 29.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.7N 31.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 33.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.9N 35.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.1N 38.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 29.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

5 PM EDT Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION SHOWING NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING YET...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 30.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


WTNT22 KNHC 112037
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 30.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 29.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.7N 32.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.7N 34.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.8N 36.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.0N 39.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 30.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


WTNT42 KNHC 112040
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

THE DEPRESSION IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPROVEMENT
TO THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS ARE T1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 25 KT.

THIS FORECAST PACKAGE MAKES NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND BE
UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...ALTHOUGH
THE AMBIENT MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND
STABLE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS STILL INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...PEAKING NEAR 50 KT IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REACH LATITUDES WHERE IT WILL BECOME
IMPACTED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...AND SOME
WEAKENING IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT
IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 275/10 AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL
MOVE DUE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ALL
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE
RIDGE...BUT THE BULK OF THEM LIE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST ON
DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.6N 30.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.7N 32.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 14.7N 34.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 14.8N 36.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 39.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 49.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 21.0N 54.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[gatorcane]

I haven't seen much talk about fish. Are we thinking fish on this at this point or too early to call? The 12Z GFS brings this system way west with no recurve (albeit as a weak system).

[cycloneye]

The 5 PM track is more south than the 11 AM one.

[Brent]

I haven't seen much talk about fish. Are we thinking fish on this at this point or too early to call? The 12Z GFS brings this system way west with no recurve (albeit as a weak system).

Strength determines track IMO. If it remains rather weak(like the NHC forecast), west it should go(beyond 5 days who knows), if it strengthens more, fish.

[gatorcane]

Thanks Brent

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

With dry air in TD2's future for a couple days, it should only intensify very very slowly. If the dry air diminishes, it will become a tropical storm. I think it will remain weak for a day or two and then become a moderate tropical storm. With intensity comes track for this system. I think that TD2 will remain south and west of the NHC track for the next 24-48 hours, and then move generally WNW only offering a graze to the islands.

[cpdaman]

i say weak for next 5 days then strong fish when it reaches the longitude of 60-65 west

does it have to fight off a bunch of SAL now

[Cookie]

what dose the term fish stand for?

seen it used many times recently in this thread and others

[RL3AO]

what dose the term fish stand for?

seen it used many times recently in this thread and others

A storm that curves out to sea without impacting land.

[Gustywind]

what dose the term fish stand for?

seen it used many times recently in this thread and others

LOL it's when a cane does not hit any land

[brunota2003]

what dose the term fish stand for?

seen it used many times recently in this thread and others

A storm that curves out to sea without impacting land.

Go Fish!

[Gustywind]

what dose the term fish stand for?

seen it used many times recently in this thread and others

A storm that curves out to sea without impacting land.

Go Fish!

It's a fish!

[Gustywind]

TD 2 in the Atlantic
Tom Moore, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 11, 2009 5:07 pm ET

In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure located west of the Cape Verde Islands has become Tropical Depression Two. It is located about 350 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and has maximum sustained winds near 30 miles per hour.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm early Wednesday, in which case it would be named Ana. It will head through the open Atlantic the next 5 days with no threat to land.

Southeast of T.D. 2, an area of low pressure will emerge off the Africa coast in the next 24 hours. This system will also be monitored for possible development.

[gatorcane]

I believe TD 2 is into Florida on the 12Z. If you follow it frame by frame you'll see what I mean.

18Z GFS just out, more left with TD #2 now getting very close to the Leewards (maybe a brush?)

[gatorcane]

I'm not so sure TD #2 is going to be a fish. 18Z rolling in and GFS shifts more left in this run yet again with this system hitting the Northernmost Leewards. We'll just need to see some more runs but the trend today is LEFT.

Looks like this may end up as a case where models want to curve it NW into a weakness that just doesn't happen.

I know it should change but look at the Bermuda ridge and where TD #2 is in 6 days. That setup suggests this thing could get under that Bermuda ridge and ride west......

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: I believe TD 2 is into Florida on the 12Z. If you follow it frame by frame you'll see what I mean.

18Z GFS just out, more left with TD #2 now getting very close to the Leewards (maybe a brush?)

Hope a "just" a brush Gatorcane , but runs after runs seems that the brush could be more than that, should this trend westward westward westward will end quickly . I don't like these adjustements westward each weather forecast...looking suspicious but wait and see as usual