Disturbance East of Bahamas

[tailgater]

Snippet from N.O. AFD this morning, they seem to watching this area very closely.

LONG TERM THE EXTENDED IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET TRICKY. THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 61W AND 51W LOOK LIKE THEY EVENTUALLY PHASE OVER THE CARRIBEAN. WE SHOULD SEE THESE FLARE UP WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP DEFINE THEM A LITTLE BETTER. BUT IT IS THESE OR THE UNIFIED FEATURE OF THESE THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENING SHEAR ALOFT BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS IS WHERE WE FIND WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS INITIALIZING BETTER IF AT ALL. ALL DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB YESTERDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DOING A BETTER JOB THIS MORNING. WITH REGARDS TO THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT...THE GFS CREATES TWO CENTERS AND ELONGATES THE THE UPPER HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS UPPER WINDS OF 10KT WHILE ACTUAL SPEEDS ARE 20KT. THE ECMWF DOES A VERY GOOD JOB AT REPRESENTING THIS UPPER HIGH. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD WESTWARD BLOCKING ANY DISTURBANCE FROM HEADING NORTH UNTIL IT FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE GULF. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...FORCING ANY FEATURE THAT WOULD DEVELOP INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THEN NW GULF BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. OBVIOUSLY WITH A WEAKER RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE GFS...THE FEATURE WOULD MOVE INTO FLA. SO ALL IN ALL...IT IS SIMPLY SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING. HAVE NOT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE ON THIS PACKAGE. TO BRING POP NUMBERS UP MORE...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE AGREEMENT WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at my PPV AccuWx coarse outer grid 850 mb winds for TD #2, outer grid likes two other systems as much or more than it likes TD #2.


In 126 hours this is a very sharp wave across Cuba and South Florida, close to forming a closed low. Per GFDL outer grid for TD #02L at 6Z.

[Sanibel]

We could use the rain. They have to be talking the central Atlantic wave as the source.


(I think they are seeing ghosts)

[Blown Away]

This area is looking more suspicious!!

[tolakram]

This wave looks like it has the most potential when viewed via TPW. Not a prediction.

[RL3AO]

This wave looks like it has the most potential when viewed via TPW. Not a prediction.

Thats really wrapped up in the past 12 hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As seen on GOMEX thread, noted tropical model the NAM hits Puerto Rico in 2 days with a depression, which then gets semi-torn apart crossing Hispaniola.

[HURAKAN]

A floater already for this system. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Gustywind]

This area is looking more suspicious!!

And racing near the islands...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Per GFS through 78 hours, this wave well East of the islands weakens further, until it is barely detectable in 850 mb wind/vorticity fields between Cuba and the Bahamas.


Meanwhile, TD #2 weakens slowly, while next African system starts looking large and in charge.

[Gustywind]

Another player

[Gustywind]

Looking better and better...

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 111734
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE vERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW AS IT MOVES WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Ivanhater]

GFDL really likes this system..keep in mind, it is in the outer grid, so it is more intense, more than likely..in the gulf

[Aric Dunn]

like i was saying early this morning.. carrib people please watch this closely as things are probably going to happen fast with it.. since this morning when the circulation first started to tighten up it has become more much more evident and although convection is still not concentrated, it probably about to change fast as low level convergence and upper divergence continue to increase ..

[Sanibel]

Unless the MJO fleshes these disturbances out with convection I see them as dry waves the models are over-reading.

[BensonTCwatcher]

like i was saying early this morning.. carrib people please watch this closely as things are probably going to happen fast with it.. since this morning when the circulation first started to tighten up it has become more much more evident and although convection is still not concentrated, it probably about to change fast as low level convergence and upper divergence continue to increase ..

Good catch Aric,

There appears to anti-cyclonic flow aloft, have to watch this one for signs of the circ. getting organized QS pass is missing it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[Ed Mahmoud]

Home made NASA fudge visible loop

Note the little apparent surface circulation with the wave we watched cross the islands.


Super hi-res so close you can see the pores and little hairs visible satellite loop.

[drezee]

I wasn't impressed looking at it...until I looked at the 4 day visible loop. This has absolutely improved each day and if it continues on the current trend.....IMO, this will be a real player.

[Ivanhater]

Even the Euro is seeing this move into the Gulf in about 5 days..