ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track.

AL, 99, 2009081012, , BEST, 0, 145N, 249W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 101232
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC MON AUG 10 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992009) 20090810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090810 1200 090811 0000 090811 1200 090812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 24.9W 15.8N 27.7W 16.7N 30.3W 17.0N 32.8W
BAMD 14.5N 24.9W 15.5N 26.6W 16.5N 28.2W 17.4N 29.9W
BAMM 14.5N 24.9W 15.9N 26.9W 17.0N 28.9W 17.8N 30.8W
LBAR 14.5N 24.9W 15.5N 26.5W 16.6N 28.3W 18.1N 30.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090812 1200 090813 1200 090814 1200 090815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 35.6W 18.0N 41.2W 19.6N 47.4W 21.9N 54.1W
BAMD 18.3N 32.0W 20.0N 36.1W 22.4N 39.3W 24.2N 40.3W
BAMM 18.8N 33.2W 20.8N 37.8W 23.3N 41.7W 25.3N 43.6W
LBAR 19.6N 31.7W 23.3N 34.7W 26.9N 36.7W 28.0N 36.6W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 30KTS 17KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 30KTS 17KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 24.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 23.0W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 21.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[KWT]

Exactly wcman57, thats the thing thats has annoyed me most, it clearly would have been upgraded, heck it would be at least a red alert if nothing more!

[Derek Ortt]

not looking good this morning at all

If it was in the Gulf vs. the Cape Verde Islands, would it be TD 2 now? I think it would. That's a problem I've had with the classification system - it's location dependent (or appears to be).

But I agree the convection is still a bit weak, as well as the circulation. Interesting that the QS had some unflagged 40-45kt westerly winds south of the low center. There has been a band of westerly winds in that region lately. And the trade winds have dropped off significantly now.

I was having trouble finding the SE winds yesterday. Looked more like a monsoonal circulation than it did a true TC

[cycloneye]

10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L
10/0545 UTC 14.2N 23.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/2345 UTC 14.2N 22.9W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1745 UTC 14.2N 22.4W T1.5/1.5 99L
09/1330 UTC 14.2N 21.8W T1.5/1.5 99L

[wxman57]

NOGAPS is the only model that has a westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.The question is if this model may turn to be the right one trackwise,or the other fish bunch prevails.

NOGAPS is almost always opposite of the other models. It was the model that took Gustav NE across the DR then out to sea last year. It's always the outlier. I trust the LBAR over NOGAPS (or even XTRAP).

That said, if this system does develop, then we can't rule out any NE Caribbean threat yet.

[Tropics Guy]

The low must have gulped some dry air from the north, seems to be weakening some, maybe better development conditions as it tracks west.

TG

[cycloneye]

Good closeup loop of 99L.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 091545.GIF

[Emmett_Brown]

I don't think we will see development of 99L today (and maybe never). 99L is moving slowly, and there is a strong wave about to emerge from Africa that seems to be moving faster. Just the opinion of a mad scientist, but I think there is a chance that the second wave will catch 99L, and disrupt it or merge with it. So, I say development will eventually happen, but may be delayed, and the entity that eventually develops might not be purely 99L.

[ronjon]

NOGAPS is the only model that has a westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.The question is if this model may turn to be the right one trackwise,or the other fish bunch prevails.

NOGAPS is almost always opposite of the other models. It was the model that took Gustav NE across the DR then out to sea last year. It's always the outlier. I trust the LBAR over NOGAPS (or even XTRAP).

That said, if this system does develop, then we can't rule out any NE Caribbean threat yet.

Actually latest Euro (00Z) brings 99L into the Bahamas in 10 days. Plus the CMC and UKMET keeps the system more south and west.

[ronjon]

TAFB Forecast - 99L weak and westward.

[Stormcenter]

In 10 days....talk about highly uncertain.
The models have a hard enough time
looking past 72 hours.

NOGAPS is the only model that has a westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.The question is if this model may turn to be the right one trackwise,or the other fish bunch prevails.

NOGAPS is almost always opposite of the other models. It was the model that took Gustav NE across the DR then out to sea last year. It's always the outlier. I trust the LBAR over NOGAPS (or even XTRAP).

That said, if this system does develop, then we can't rule out any NE Caribbean threat yet.

Actually latest Euro (00Z) brings 99L into the Bahamas in 10 days. Plus the CMC and UKMET keeps the system more south and west.

[Sanibel]

I had a feeling the same airmass that dried up the previous wave was still in place. 2009 is drying out everything that looks like it has a chance of forming. Maybe these waves will moderate the negativity.

[wxman57]

Convection is going the wrong way for development to occur - it's decreasing. Could be 99L will be the sacrificial wave, making the way for the next one to move offshore and develop.

[wxman57]

But NOGAPS always seems to be the farthest left or farthest right. It's not to be trusted. Of course, if 99L fails to develop, a more westerly track is likely, but just as a tropical wave like the one currently impacting the east Caribbean.

NOGAPS is the only model that has a westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.The question is if this model may turn to be the right one trackwise,or the other fish bunch prevails.

NOGAPS is almost always opposite of the other models. It was the model that took Gustav NE across the DR then out to sea last year. It's always the outlier. I trust the LBAR over NOGAPS (or even XTRAP).

That said, if this system does develop, then we can't rule out any NE Caribbean threat yet.

Actually latest Euro (00Z) brings 99L into the Bahamas in 10 days. Plus the CMC and UKMET keeps the system more south and west.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe later on.

[Gustywind]

Invest 99L... taking a breath? Does not seems to exhibit a strong sat pic appearence as yesterday...but great effort to stay alive and racing straight west.

[Evil Jeremy]

99L is weaker this morning, but I don't think it is done yet. If 99L can hang on and wait out the dry air, it still has a good chance of becoming Ana. I would say it has a 40% of becoming our first named storm of the year at this point, it just needs to hang on until it clears the air. If 99L falls apart though, the wave behind it will have good conditions to form into something.

[Sanibel]

Emmett might be on to something there. The next waxe is perched lower meaning 99L is screening the negative airmass for it. It is close enough and has better structure enough to pull the weak and vertically elongated 99L into it possibly. Who knows. The lower wave would have the advantage in marginal conditions.

Though if I were to eye the two disturbances I would say they are separate.

[littlevince]

Visible loop (0830-1500z)