ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W FROM 10N TO 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N DRIFTING WESTWARD. LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING UP NEAR AND TO THE SW OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM 11N TO OVER THE THE SOUTHERN MOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 22W-27W. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

[HURAKAN]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.2 23.2 295./13.0
6 14.9 23.2 359./ 7.1
12 15.6 25.5 288./23.2
18 16.1 26.8 291./13.6
24 16.3 28.8 273./19.2
30 16.4 30.0 275./11.4
36 16.4 31.3 269./12.4
42 16.4 32.7 273./13.7
48 16.5 34.1 275./13.2
54 16.6 35.6 274./14.2
60 16.5 36.9 264./12.9
66 16.5 38.3 271./13.3
72 16.5 39.9 270./15.3
78 16.7 41.4 276./14.3
84 16.6 42.9 268./14.4
90 16.5 44.4 267./14.3
96 16.6 45.4 274./ 9.6
102 17.0 46.8 285./14.2
108 17.4 48.1 287./12.7
114 18.0 49.0 302./10.6
120 18.4 50.3 289./12.9
126 19.1 51.4 303./12.7




Weaker and more to the west

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ronjon]

Latest 00Z Euro brings 99L into the bahamas in 10 days with the trailing disturbance nearing the Lesser Antilles.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2009081000!!/

[cycloneye]

A snippet from the AFD in San Juan.

FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A NOTED SHIFT
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS APPARENT AS NORTHERN MODULATION OF ITCZ
CONTINUED...WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WAVE BASED ON LATED GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE
CENTER HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SO LOOK LIKES THE ATLANTIC...IS SLOWLY COMING
ALIVE. AS THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH FALLS
IN PLACE WITH THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHEN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC STARTS
TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE. WILL HOWEVER HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

672
ABNT20 KNHC 101140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, about 90% sure Ana to be sleeps with Lucca Brazzi, the real question, does Bill to be find the weakness left behind and by Ana, and also sleep with the fishes, or does the ridge rebuild and make Bill a threat to the Islands.





But Ana, its an old Sicilian message...

[HURRICANELONNY]

It's been so dead for so long. I think the NHC just woke up. The Home Page finally has something of a sat pic on this invest. But they call it a test.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[Blown Away]

The TAFB keeps 99L moving due west near 15N at 40W, while many models have already turned 99l WNW or NW at that point.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[gatorcane]

Yeah well thunderstorms are weakening with 99L so looks like we are going to need to wait some before getting code red or even a depression (if we ever even see a depression). It looked very good yesterday but with these systems you got to wait until they head west a bit more especially this time of year (Cape Verde season really don't get going until Aug. 15 so we are still just a bit early).

Since its weak and shallow westbound it will go, however, in the long-run its looking increasingly likely the real system to watch has yet to roll off Africa....(will so in the next couple of days). If the GFS is correct it will be a very interesting 10-14 days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's been so dead for so long. I think the NHC just woke up. The Home Page finally has something of a sat pic on this invest. But they call it a test.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

That'll be the satellite picture of 99L when it gets in range of the GOES...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

[OURAGAN]

99L is not at 14N anymore, i think it is at about 13,2 N/ 25W now, may be reformation center.
What do you think about that ?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W FROM 9N TO 18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE SW OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 23W-28W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[wxman57]

99L is not at 14N anymore, i think it is at about 13,2 N/ 25W now, may be reformation center.
What do you think about that ?

I think it's north of 14N. I have Meteosat visible imagery coming in every 15 minutes. Makes it easier to see the low-level rotation.

[HURAKAN]

WTNT 21 KNGU 100600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100600Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 24.2W TO 15.6N 28.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 24.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR CANCELLED BY 110600Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

Broad LLC over the southern part of the Cape Verde Islands

[Derek Ortt]

not looking good this morning at all

[cycloneye]

It means more westward track in the short term.

[wxman57]

not looking good this morning at all

If it was in the Gulf vs. the Cape Verde Islands, would it be TD 2 now? I think it would. That's a problem I've had with the classification system - it's location dependent (or appears to be).

But I agree the convection is still a bit weak, as well as the circulation. Interesting that the QS had some unflagged 40-45kt westerly winds south of the low center. There has been a band of westerly winds in that region lately. And the trade winds have dropped off significantly now.