New disturbance emerging from Africa

[cycloneye]

Updated images.





A reminder to the Caribbean members to visit our tent thread at Weather Attic forum.Also we would like to see members from outside the Caribbean to chim in That thread has observations,daily weather,forecasts,sat pics,radars,web cams. and much more.By the way,the web cams are posted at the first post of thread.

Link to Eastern Caribbean thread.

viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
08/1200 UTC OVER THE FAR E ATLC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
15W/16W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NEAR 11N16W.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSES FROM BAMAKO IN MALI INDICATE THAT THE
DIRECTION OF THE FLOW BELOW 550 MB SHIFTED FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 07/1200 UTC AND 07/1800 UTC...SUGGESTING
WAVE PASSAGE AT BAMAKO DURING THIS TIME. SUNY ALBANY GFS
ANALYSES DEPICT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AFRICA DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 5-DAY HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM FOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AFRICA
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N15W TO 10N17W TO 10N21W.

$$
COHEN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Ivanhater]

Euro developing this wave..

[cycloneye]

Euro developing this wave..

I have it at the models thread with the other models,but thats ok.When you see the ECMWF joining the other models,then we have to pay close attention.

[Blown Away]

If it develops early will it be more likely to turn N before the islands?

Luis, very funny, shows how desperate we are!!
Breaking news=New wave added to 12 utc surface analysis

[cycloneye]

Good 850mb vorticity.

[Blown Away]

Same goes for our Winward wave.

[gatorcane]

I'm liking that wave east of the windwards now. This wave off Africa has a chance but we do have plenty of time to watch it. The wave east of the windwards has entered an area that is climatologically favored for development this time of year and continues to march westward towards the Caribbean or NE Caribbean.

[KWT]

I think the ECM isn't developing that area per say, its clearly seeing an area of higher development but it would have to pretty much slow to a near stall for it to be in that position in 3 days time. Still I think what we are seeing from the models is a wave being in favorable conditions.

You can't deny it this wave is certainly the best looking system of the season, very powerful spin on it and we are now reaching classic Cape Verde season as well. Convection is fairly shallow but that is reflective of marginal conditions, for now...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

New 1010mb low added to the 18Z Surface Analysis

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased this evening as the wave has emerged West Africa.See image at this page above.

[KWT]

I'll be surprised if this isn't an invest in 24hrs, probably the best looking system all year bar maybe 90L and Td1.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

fish

[CourierPR]

fish

What leads you to make that bold prediction?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

present latitude. likely area in front where there will be cyclogenesis

[Tropics Guy]

This disturbance could be the real deal, convection building & nice spin, could be a code yellow tomorrow, way too early to say it will be a fish.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

TG

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GOOD

[Cyclone1]

Whoa... hello.

Activity? In my Atlantic? It's more likely than you think.

[Ivanhater]

[RattleMan]

Whoa... hello.

Activity? In my Atlantic? It's more likely than you think.

<_< >_>