New disturbance emerging from Africa

[Emmett_Brown]

There is a new disturbance emerging from Africa this morning. Since we are getting into the heart of the season, time to start watching more closely:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

Also, note that this wave has lost some latitude in the last 24 hours. Note that shear will be light during the next 48 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

[cycloneye]

Is one of the best,if not the best wave in 2009.It has a MLC embbeded,but the real test comes after it hits the water.This image updates every half an hour.Click the symbol to see a real closeup.

[Gustywind]

Looking good and muscled

[Gustywind]

SAL has really diminished allowing for maybe more conducive for this impressive disturbance emerging...should this verifies first with the "poof test"

[cyclonic chronic]

that monster wave earlier in the week really soaked up the sal in the path of this wave and in the central atl. maybe, just maybe we'll have something other than invests to track and discuss. its gettin to be now or never with the very small windows for development so far this year.

[cycloneye]

The only word to describe it is,Wow!

[Blown Away]

Got to agree, I think this is the best we have seen so far! Wonder how far west this wave will go? IMO, there is a very small window for these long trackers, the timing might be just right for this one. Hopefully we can get invest status at some point so can get some models.

[gatorcane]

SAL will not be an issue for this wave:

Got to agree, I think this is the best we have seen so far! Wonder how far west this wave will go? IMO, there is a very small window for these long trackers, the timing might be just right for this one. Hopefully we can get invest status at some point so can get some models.

Its important to note that the long-wave pattern across the Atlantic has changed from troughiness in the Western Atlantic to large-scale ridging across the the Western Atlantic. This ridging exists across much of the Central Atlantic as well.

The long-range ECMWF shows this long-wave pattern is well established and would allow Cape Verde systems to track west across the Atlantic. For example, here is the 00Z ECMWF at 144 hours still showing no troughiness in the Western Atlantic anymore. The troughiness has existed for nearly the entire summer but has finally moved out:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9080800!!/

You can also look at Geopotential using the ECMWF Europe link --- zonal flow across Central and Eastern Atlantic for the next 7 days

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9080800!!/

[HURAKAN]

Finally something with potential in the Atlantic! Maybe the switch is now on.

[HURAKAN]

Lets hope this is Ana b/c it's quite boring in the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters take on this wave.

African tropical wave may develop
A strong tropical wave with a moderate amount of spin is moving off the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is under about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear and has sea surface temperatures beneath it of 27°C. These conditions are probably too marginal to allow development over the next two days. As the wave moves westward away from Africa over the next few days, wind shear should slowly decrease and the SSTs will warm, potentially allowing for some slow development. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all indicate the possibility that this will become a tropical depression 3 - 5 days from now. The ECMWF model forecasts that strong easterly winds over the wave will create too much shear to allow development. The wave is well south of the Saharan Air Layer, so dry air and African dust should not interfere over the next 3 - 5 days. I give the wave a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next seven days.

[Sanibel]

In a normal year an Africa wave with that much spin in advance would almost certainly develop.

This year we'll have to see if it is a match for the negative conditions.

The top part of the wave is already dry even before exiting.

Favorability really goes up now with each day.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news=New wave added to 12 utc surface analysis

The wave has been introduced at the 12 UTC chart without emerging completly from West Africa.

[OpieStorm]

Definitely the best feature to come off the coast so far this season, I'd be surprised if this doesn't develop. It's about time.

[cycloneye]

This is a still visible image and you can see how good it looks.

[hurricanetrack]

Now don't get too upset if this does not pop right away. You you all know what I mean. We all like to track storms, well most of us, and yes I realize what damage they do. That being said, don't be shocked if this takes time to develop. But- if it takes longer, it will be farther west, obviously. It seems to be at a fairly low latitude and has a decent chance over the long haul. We may finally have something to track in a few days. I am most interested in the fact that IF this develops, it would be right smack in the middle of the MDR (assuming that's where it pops) in the face of "the MDR is not favorable this year" talk. Hmm....

[hawkeh]

Very nice wave, looks like this may have a good shot at development.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Finally, something worth looking at. Between the overall lack of severe weather and the quiet Atlantic season this summer has been terminally boring. Maybe this little guy can change that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6 days earlier than Andrew to be left Africa, but that was a cold Atlantic multi-decadal cycle, and IIRC, the El Nino was stronger, so maybe, just maybe.
2 week GFS- sure, not guaranteed accurate, but it is close to my gut that this is Florida's year (again).

[Brent]

Really hope this develops. Looks like the best shot.