#126 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:29 pm
WTPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MORAKOT) WARNING NR 017
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.5N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.7N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 121.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR
INDICATE THAT TS 09W MADE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AT APPROXIMATELY
071500Z AND HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON LAND INTERACTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON FIXES CONTINUING TO
SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 09W
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE REMAINDER OF TAIWAN,
AND WILL BRIEFLY INTENSIFY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24 AS IT REORGANIZES
IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 09W
WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL MAINTAIN GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
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