When was the latest "start" to the Hurricane Season?

[Frank2]

Yes, 1977 was a quiet year - with the exception of Anita (that made landfall in rural Mexico) and a very short-lived Hurricane Babe (it rapidly weakened after making landfall in rural LA), that was about it...

We didn't mind, since Florida had a pretty rainy (and hot) summer, so it worked out well...

P.S. This interesting side note from Wikipedia:

The 1977 season was very inactive, with only 6 named storms. The Atlantic basin was not alone in this inactivity, though; the 1977 Pacific hurricane season was also inactive, as was the 1977 Pacific typhoon season. The cause is unknown.

Of course that was also the year that it snowed in Miami (January, 1977)....

P.P.S. It was also the happiest year of my lifetime (so far)...

[RL3AO]

UPDATED

Out of the 158 years of records available, 45 seasons (28.5%) began on of after August 2.

Code: Select all

1980   02-Aug
1963   02-Aug
1898   02-Aug
1928   03-Aug
2000   04-Aug
1853   05-Aug
1855   06-Aug
1988   07-Aug
1885   07-Aug
1938   08-Aug
1863   08-Aug
1860   08-Aug
1987   09-Aug
1911   09-Aug
1879   09-Aug
1856   09-Aug
1950   12-Aug
1869   12-Aug
1895   14-Aug
1983   15-Aug
1875   16-Aug
1942   17-Aug
1935   18-Aug
1883   18-Aug
1984   19-Aug
1927   19-Aug
1852   19-Aug
1949   21-Aug
1930   21-Aug
1910   23-Aug
1882   24-Aug
1962   27-Aug
1900   27-Aug
1977   30-Aug
1967   30-Aug
1923   30-Aug
1897   31-Aug
1884   01-Sep
1868   03-Sep
1925   06-Sep
1905   06-Sep
1920   07-Sep
1876   09-Sep
1941   11-Sep
1914   14-Sep


Yes, I know its August 1, but nothing is forming today so I just went to August 2 to knock a few more years off the list (including 2004). Latest start since 2000 (August 4).

[RL3AO]

Since 1950, 11 seasons (18.6%) began on of after August 2.

Code: Select all

1980   02-Aug
1963   02-Aug
2000   04-Aug
1988   07-Aug
1987   09-Aug
1950   12-Aug
1983   15-Aug
1984   19-Aug
1962   27-Aug
1977   30-Aug
1967   30-Aug


[brunota2003]

Well, the EPAC did set it's record for the latest start since sat images became available...and then got off to a "bang"...perhaps the Atlantic isn't wanting to be out done and is attempting the same feat?

Of course, that would mean the possibility of more activity post season than during the actual season itself. Wouldn't that be something?!

[jinftl]

Remember we have already has a tropical depression...not a named storm....but a system that did in fact have advisories initiated on it by the nhc...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

NNNN

[Stormsfury]

I have to make this brief as having to go to the library to use a PC sucks. (Still waiting on either getting old PC fixed or a new one), but it's really nothing out of the ordinary if a TC doesn't develop in June or July. Sure, we are in an ENSO phase not as conducive to Atlantic TC development and part of that comes to patterns.

Many years like the aforementioned 2006 season (which actually ended up having 10 TC's, as opposed to the operational 9) - which in thus kept the 10 or more TC's in the ATL streak running since 1998. It all comes to overall synoptics. It hasn't been conducive for development practically anywhere in the ATL. In seasons like 2004 for example, once ingredients were in place for development, things happened in a big way. I'm not saying that will exactly happen this year, in which I really don't think so (in fact, I think there's a good chance that this season will end up with only 8 storms.) We will have opportunities this season as we hit the heart of the season, but again, if the parameters do not come together, this will not be an active season.

(To quantify: 1 bad storm can make it a bad season - see 1992)

[RL3AO]

Out of the 158 years of records available, 38 seasons (24.1%) began on or after August 7. Latest start without a named storm since 1988.

Code: Select all

1988   07-Aug
1885   07-Aug
1938   08-Aug
1863   08-Aug
1860   08-Aug
1987   09-Aug
1911   09-Aug
1879   09-Aug
1856   09-Aug
1950   12-Aug
1869   12-Aug
1895   14-Aug
1983   15-Aug
1875   16-Aug
1942   17-Aug
1935   18-Aug
1883   18-Aug
1984   19-Aug
1927   19-Aug
1852   19-Aug
1949   21-Aug
1930   21-Aug
1910   23-Aug
1882   24-Aug
1962   27-Aug
1900   27-Aug
1977   30-Aug
1967   30-Aug
1923   30-Aug
1897   31-Aug
1884   01-Sep
1868   03-Sep
1925   06-Sep
1905   06-Sep
1920   07-Sep
1876   09-Sep
1941   11-Sep
1914   14-Sep


We continue to shave the list down.

[wxman57]

Can't really count the years prior to modern satellite, as many of them would have had missed storms prior to the first listed in the database.

[RL3AO]

Since 1950, seasons (13.6%) began on of after August 6.

Code: Select all

1988   07-Aug
1987   09-Aug
1950   12-Aug
1983   15-Aug
1984   19-Aug
1962   27-Aug
1977   30-Aug
1967   30-Aug


[weatherwindow]

Out of the 158 years of records available, 38 seasons (24.1%) began on or after August 7. Latest start without a named storm since 1988.

Code: Select all

1988   07-Aug
1885   07-Aug
1938   08-Aug
1863   08-Aug
1860   08-Aug
1987   09-Aug
1911   09-Aug
1879   09-Aug
1856   09-Aug
1950   12-Aug
1869   12-Aug
1895   14-Aug
1983   15-Aug
1875   16-Aug
1942   17-Aug
1935   18-Aug
1883   18-Aug
1984   19-Aug
1927   19-Aug
1852   19-Aug
1949   21-Aug
1930   21-Aug
1910   23-Aug
1882   24-Aug
1962   27-Aug
1900   27-Aug
1977   30-Aug
1967   30-Aug
1923   30-Aug
1897   31-Aug
1884   01-Sep
1868   03-Sep
1925   06-Sep
1905   06-Sep
1920   07-Sep
1876   09-Sep
1941   11-Sep
1914   14-Sep


We continue to shave the list down.

..good search rl...just an interesting note...of those 38 "late start" years...23(60.5%) included a florida landfall(ts or hurricane)...rich

[OpieStorm]

Just goes to show active seasons come in waves. I remember after 2005 a lot of people believed we were going to have super active seasons from now on due to global warming. Obviously not the case.

[wxman57]

Since 1950, seasons (13.6%) began on of after August 6.

Code: Select all

[b]1988 07-Aug[/b]
1987   09-Aug
[b]1950 12-Aug[/b]
1983   15-Aug
1984   19-Aug
[b]1962 27-Aug[/b]
1977   30-Aug
[b]1967 30-Aug[/b]


You'd have to remove 1950, 1962 and 1967 as well. We had no GOES satellite until 1975.

[Bocadude85]

Why is the 1992 season not on the list? I know there was a subtropical storm in April.. but it was not named.. so I would think that 1992 would be on that list.

[jinftl]

good catch

Why is the 1992 season not on the list? I know there was a subtropical storm in April.. but it was not named.. so I would think that 1992 would be on that list.

[RL3AO]

You'd have to remove 1950, 1962 and 1967 as well. We had no GOES satellite until 1975.

I was just using 1950 since thats what NOAA uses for seasonal averages.

[MGC]

I think anything before the first satellites were orbited should be considered with a grain of salt. I'm sure many a TC was missed before the 1960's and satellite data. I don't see any concern with the season starting late as it has happened before. Now if it is this way by Sept 1 then I'll blame it on global warming....seems every other weather event is blamed on GW these days......MGC

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not sure this counts. We have had a depression this year already. we keep forgetting that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlan ... ession_One

[Derek Ortt]

1992 had a storm in April. That counts as one of the storms in 1992

[Bocadude85]

Yes 1992 had a un named storm. That list above in my opinion is for the first named storm of the season. Andrew was the first named storm of the season. If we count the un named storm of 1992 as the first storm of the season then it was not hurricane Andrew that devestated South Miami it was Hurricane Bonnie. I am aware that sub tropical storms are now named, but in 1992 they were not. While it maybe a technicality, it does not change the fact that Andrew was the first named storm of the season.

[Stormcenter]

But what makes this so different so far this season is just the plain lack of any potential waves to begin with except a few here and there. I wouldn't call it a "concern" at all with the season starting late. Heck I hope it never starts. It's more like a "blessing" because the later the season starts the closer we are to Fall and those cool fronts along with the northerly flow that comes with them. Yes I know storms can form on the tail end of stalled fronts in GOM but they VERY RARELY turn into any like an Andrew or Katrina.

I think anything before the first satellites were orbited should be considered with a grain of salt. I'm sure many a TC was missed before the 1960's and satellite data. I don't see any concern with the season starting late as it has happened before. Now if it is this way by Sept 1 then I'll blame it on global warming....seems every other weather event is blamed on GW these days......MGC