NOAA August Update=7-11 storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-2 majors

[cycloneye]

NOAA lowers their August outlook from the May one.Read the update at link below.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

[lurkey]

NOAA now expects quieter hurricane season


Photos BY CURTIS MORGAN
cmorgan@MiamiHerald.com


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reduced its prediction for named storms by nearly a quarter but cautioned that the so-far snoozing tropics would still likely waken and churn up a near-normal number of storms.

``By no means, do we expect the season to be dead,'' said Gerry Bell, who is the lead seasonal forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The new ``likely'' range -- calculated at a 70 percent chance -- is seven to 11 named storms, with three to six becoming hurricanes. Of those, one to two are expected to turn into major storms with Category 3 winds of 111 miles per hour or higher.

NOAA's initial annual forecast, issued in May, called for nine to 14 named storms, four to seven hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. An average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, produces 11 storms.

Forecasters don't consider this year's sedate start, with only a single depression since June, a reliable indicator of how the next few peak months will shape up. But they do put stock in the emergence of El Niño, which formed rapidly in June and seems likely to strengthen through fall.

That weather pattern, marked by warming Pacific Ocean temperatures, typically tends to quiet the tropics in both storm numbers and intensity. Bell said upper level winds have already strengthened, meaning emerging storms will face wind shear that can weaken them or sometimes rip them apart.

Another prominent forecaster, William Gray of Colorado State, has already reduced his annual projection by one named storm to 10, also citing El Niño.

If 2009 does prove slower than the past busy seasons, it may just be a blip. El Niños come and go, but a wider array of conditions favoring hurricane formation remains in place.

Those patterns -- winds off Africa, tropical rainfall, warmer temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean, among other measures -- tend to last 25 to 40 years, Bell said.

`At present, we are 14 years into the current activity area and there's no indication it's coming to a close,'' he said.

NOAA does not issue predictions of where or how many hurricanes will make landfall, as the storms are steered by regional weather patterns that can quickly change.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

I guess having such a large range of possibilities makes the forecast easier to verify.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess having such a large range of possibilities makes the forecast easier to verify.

You'd never guess what other private sector met makes that same point frequently about NOAA's hurricane forecasts and seasonal climate outlooks.

[Stormcenter]

Talk about covering all of your bases......7-11 is a pretty significant range.
Anyway we all know by now that it only takes one so they could have 20 named storms and as long they stay away from populated land it's a quiet season. IMO

[jinftl]

This is the 3rd season forecast update this week...from 3 separate agencies....that have far from sounded the 'season cancel' whistle. A "50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a below-normal season, and a 10 percent probability of an above-normal season" along with a "70 percent chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5)" hardly is an update that says there will be no storms for the rest of the season.