CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[Ed Mahmoud]

If Felicia stays near the Southern edge of the error envelope, it might avoid the forecast weakening to a tropical storm in 5 days...

[MGC]

Felicia has continued to slowly intensify as I expected. The hurricane is showing little if any effect from Enrique. Felicia's eye is quite pronounced in IR satellite image, which is to be expected for a major hurricane. I think Felicia is near its peak in intensity but could intensify a bit more before cooler waters cause a slow decrease in intensity. Looking more and more that Hawaii might be impacted by Felicia......MGC

[RL3AO]

I'm thinking pojo and some of her colleagues might be getting a long (and probably uncomfortable) flight out to Hawaii here in a few days.

[Derek Ortt]

what were the SSTs that Flossie traveled over? I know it was constantly predicted to weaken, but instead it reached cat 4 status before encountering shear near Hawaii

I think they were below 26C but I am not entirely sure

[Derek Ortt]

also, what were Fernanda 1993 SST? This is likely to take a similar path to that storm and Fernanda intensified significantly once it cleared 145W

[Cookie]

according to weather underground its a cat 3

[brunota2003]

according to weather underground its a cat 3

According to the NHC, it is a cat 3 as well...115 mph

[HURAKAN]

It appears Felicia continues to intensify

[I-wall]

what the heck at the latest NHC intensity estimate. I know satellite estimates say whatever knots, but microwave data simply cannot be ignored.

The entire northern eyewall has been eroded based upon the latest TMI imagery. If anything, Felicia has weakened.

65KT at the most right now

No fair. You have special tools at your dispense. Kidding.....thanks for the info Derek. That's interesting to know. I thought for certain she was still picking up steam.

I-wall, TMI, SSMI, and other microwave data can be found on NRL. Available to the entire public.

Good to know. Thanks!

[CrazyC83]

Sights set on Category 5???

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2009 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 14:00:00 N Lon : 128:49:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 971.1mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.1 6.8 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +1.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Forget about the raw.

[HURAKAN]

Very well organized tropical cyclone

[CrazyC83]

Forget about the raw.

For now at least, although I do find that it sets general trends on where it is headed.

[I-wall]

what were the SSTs that Flossie traveled over? I know it was constantly predicted to weaken, but instead it reached cat 4 status before encountering shear near Hawaii

I think they were below 26C but I am not entirely sure

Derek, are you thinking we might have the same scenario with Felicia? It looks like SST are warmer as you get closer to Hawaii....any chance it would re-strenthen on its final approach to the islands?

[HURAKAN]

Forget about the raw.

For now at least, although I do find that it sets general trends on where it is headed.

To me the raw just tells how organized a system is. Meaning, the higher the raw the better it looks but not how intense it is.

[brunota2003]

The POD for "tomorrow" has not been released yet (is usually released around 9 am...the last one out was yesterday, today's hasnt been issued yet...........and it is 1 pm). Someone keep an eye on that!

[Night Tide]

This isn't looking good, as I have a sister who lives in Hawaii.

I thought I heard the news this morning say Hawaii will probably avoid a direct hit, but I don't know. It's worrying me.

[I-wall]

The POD for "tomorrow" has not been released yet (is usually released around 9 am...the last one out was yesterday, today's hasnt been issued yet...........and it is 1 pm). Someone keep an eye on that!

What is a POD?

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[Ed Mahmoud]

The POD for "tomorrow" has not been released yet (is usually released around 9 am...the last one out was yesterday, today's hasnt been issued yet...........and it is 1 pm). Someone keep an eye on that!

NOUS42 KNHC 051615
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT WED 05 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
MISSION FOR 07/1200Z FROM KLGB TO PHNL ON HURRICANE
FELICIA.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE
FELICIA AT 08/1800Z NEAR 20N 141W.
JWP