TSR raises numbers at 8/4/09 forecast=13/7/3

[cycloneye]

This comes as a surprise for many,including me.

They had 11/6/2 in the July forecast.

The main reason of the raise according to the Tropical Storm Risk UK folks are the warmer ssts in the Atlantic.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[CrazyC83]

I don't know what they are thinking, maybe a quick spurt of activity? Sure the SST's are plenty warm enough, but there is still way too much shear and dry air out there.

[Stormcenter]

How many hurricanes hit the UK....I rest my case.

I just couldn't resist.

This comes as a surprise for many,including me.

They had 11/6/2 in the July forecast.

The main reason of the raise according to the Tropical Storm Risk UK folks are the warmer ssts in the Atlantic.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[jasons2k]

I certainly wouldn't discount it.

SST's are now above average in most of the basin: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2009.gif

That combined with a weaker-than-expected El Nino could make for a busy season once it gets started.

[HURAKAN]

If the forecast ends up being wrong, I won't feel bad that my numbers before the season began were 13/7/3!!!!

[Stormcenter]

It depends on what your definition of a "busy" season is.
Anything more then what we have now would
be considered busy for most of us. If you mean double digit
storms like last season....I don't think so.

I certainly wouldn't discount it.

SST's are now above average in most of the basin: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2009.gif

That combined with a weaker-than-expected El Nino could make for a busy season once it gets started.

[Ptarmigan]

I certainly wouldn't discount it.

SST's are now above average in most of the basin: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.2009.gif

That combined with a weaker-than-expected El Nino could make for a busy season once it gets started.

The Gulf of Mexico is quite warm due to that heat wave we have. In the 2004 season, CSU predicted 13/7/3 on August 6, 2004 and this was during a developing El Nino, albleit a Modiki El Nino. It turned out to be 15/9/6.

[Sanibel]

2004 was more obviously active by this time. I would moderate the comparison because of it.

13/7/3 or slightly less seems reasonable.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of TSR August forecast

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) also issued a new forecast today, and have increased their numbers by 20% from their June and July forecasts. TSR is also calling for a near-average season, predicting 12.6 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2.8 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 103% of average. Their June forecast called for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are slightly above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 40% chance of an above-average season, 44% chance of a near-average season, and a 19% chance of a below-average season, as defined by ACE index. TSR rates their skill level as 51% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 60% skill for hurricanes, and 44% skill for intense hurricanes. These are far higher skill numbers than the June ones: 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.8 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 25% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.1 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites one main factor for their increased forecast: higher sea surface temperatures than expected over the tropical Atlantic, due to the fact that the trade winds over the Atlantic should be slower than originally anticipated. Faster than average trade winds create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling.

[MGC]

How can you forecast 6.5 hurricanes? Where do you get a half a hurricane?....MGC

[jinftl]

You do realize that the first storm in 2004 formed on July 31st, right? And that on August 4, 2004, the NOAA 'remainder of season' forecast was lowered due to the developing el nino. By August 13, we had Charley making landfall and the parade of florida storms began. Not expecting a repeat of 2004, but using June and July as a basis for predicting Aug, Sept, and Oct conditions...even in an el nino....is not scientifically sound.

Granted, even the forecasts from the experts are predictions, but the fact that both of the agencies to release August forecasts kept the season at double digit numbers of named storms can not be dismissed. In fact, raising a forecast when there has been no activity and a developig el nino, like TSR did, is a bold move, and they must have confidence in their reasoning. Blown predictions lower credibility.

TSR doesn't cite analog years, but Dr. Gray did cite 2002 as a possible analog year to 2009.....that season has 12 named storms, 11 of which formed after August 4 (and it was an el nino year).

2004 was more obviously active by this time. I would moderate the comparison because of it.

13/7/3 or slightly less seems reasonable.

[KWT]

Yeah but I think its clear as day that condtions in the Atlantic are STILL not that great, sure SST's have increased but there is still too much stability. Seems like the ECM long range model was keying into the higher then normal pressure in the Atlantic and that is at least this far quite obivous. I seem to recall wxman57 saying it was forecasting the highest pressure overall since 1983.

Also people talking about 2004...we had Alex by now, meanwhile the Atlantic doesn't look like producing anything at all for a little while yet.

I'll be quite honestly shocked if we get more then 10 storms, and that taking into consideration the SST's rising, they may help the hurricane count though.

[Scorpion]

10 storms would be a miracle, much less 13. The season will probably wind down in late September, so it better get going quick.

[KWT]

What I will say is shear isn't really that bad overall, and so if we do get rid of this stability even for a few weeks then we could see a fairly activbe burst, thats what I suspect could happen late August time.

10 storms may well be too high scorpion, I was just using it to make a point.

[OpieStorm]

10 storms would be a miracle, much less 13. The season will probably wind down in late September, so it better get going quick.

Why do you say that? Late September is just past the peak of the season, October is usually pretty active.

[KWT]

Because El Ninos tend to shut down seasons early as the STJ comes back further south into the development zones as we head slowly towards winter.

[cpdaman]

Yeah but I think its clear as day that condtions in the Atlantic are STILL not that great, sure SST's have increased but there is still too much stability. Seems like the ECM long range model was keying into the higher then normal pressure in the Atlantic and that is at least this far quite obivous. I seem to recall wxman57 saying it was forecasting the highest pressure overall since 1983.

what larger factors would cause the highest overall pressure's......is it the strength size or position of a high pressure ridge being in a certain region.....is it some "teleconnection" from who know's where or just some "hullabloo"

[tolakram]

TSR increased their forecast numbers in 2004 and were the only ones close (1 storm off) the seasonal numbers.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weathe ... trynum=261

Tropical Storm Risk Inc. (TSR) on the other hand raised their numbers to 13 named storms due to warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) than previously thought. This seems like a milder version of 2004. On 4 August 2004, TSR issued their mid-season prediction stating, “This season has more to offer with a 150% chance of a US landfalling hurricane”, while all others lowered their numbers and landfall probabilities. They predicted 14 named storms, with the season actually giving 15. They also did well in 2007 and 2008.

[jinftl]

A strong contender for an analogue season...2002...featured 1 storm in July, 2 in August, 8 in September, and 1 in October. Things did...and do...change very quickly.

I will buy the claim that 10 storms would be a miracle if the claim is made on September 15. Not one day before.

10 storms would be a miracle, much less 13. The season will probably wind down in late September, so it better get going quick.

[KWT]

True 2002 could be quite close, but the September that year was exceptional, thats a record there. I'd be quite amazed if anything close to that happens this season, thats not to say we can't have any bursts however, I think its highly likely we get a good 4-5 storms in a 3 week period starting close to the end of August, classic timing.

It just seems like nothing is having even a decent stab at developing, by this point if we going to have an above normal season like is being claimed this should be at least showing big signs of changing.