Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[Macrocane]

They are the numbers each season had by 31st July during El Nino seasons.

The first number is the amount of tropical storms, the second is the number of hurricanes by the 31sy July and and the third is the amount of majors.

So IF we have no more systems then July 2009 will look like this:

4/2/0

That's what I thought but I have just realized that you're talking about Pacific systems, I didn't undesrtand them cause I thought they were from the Atlantic and they looked kind of weird

[Macrocane]

As you have noticed, this year tropical cyclone basins have been very inactive, maybe the most inactive year since 1977 and taking a look at the analogies I've realized that the first named storm of the 1977 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Anita (the Spanish for little Ana) and it was a very late start (august 29), don't you think it would be weird if Ana forms on the same place, in a similar date and with a similar intensity? I know there would be too many coincidences but couldn't help myself thinking about it.

[wxmann_91]

Info I got from a met - globally, the monsoon has been suppressed this season. This probably accounts for the decreased activity worldwide, as it is the monsoon that helps spawn the easterly waves in Africa and the WPAC disturbances, both seedlings of TC's.

[gatorcane]

Latest CIMSCC wind shear analysis shows a rather large anticyclone in the upper-levels over much of the MDR that has developed --- with light wind shear across this region. It certainly has not been this favorable all season.

So in my opinion, the signs are there the shear is dropping off. I think we are just a few weeks away from seeing a ramp up -- following climatology where the second half of August starts to really ramp up.

It may be quiet now but I just have feeling it will turn on with a bang in the next few weeks (I don't know why Aug. 20-someting keeps coming to mind....).

[srainhoutx]

We'll need to see the SAL cease for any CV systems IMHO. We may have to look a bit closer to home.

[HURRICANELONNY]

July usually is the month for Sal crossing the Atlantic. It looks to be decreasing in intensity as of now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html

[Sanibel]

The heat and humidity will eventually win the battle and push the jet north where it will force the issue tropically.

[tolakram]

The heat and humidity will eventually win the battle and push the jet north where it will force the issue tropically.

I'm glad you're sure of that, because up here we are finishing a record cold July and the monthly forecasts are all pointing to a very cool August.

Of course this could lead to a 'fall' summer, or an early winter.

[Gustywind]

We'll need to see the SAL cease for any CV systems IMHO. We may have to look a bit closer to home.

SAL is decreasing steadily:

[MGC]

1 August and conditions are still quite hostile for development in the Atlantic basin. 1977 and 1992 got off to a late start, perhaps what we will see this season.....in both seasons the A storm eventually became a major hurricane. Hope that don't happen this year.....MGC

[dixiebreeze]

The Labor Day weekend is almost always a tropical storm holiday. If it's different this year, then this is really an off season.

[Dean4Storms]

Let's hope it stays this quiet to end the year. I know that is not likely but we do need the break not only in the US but especially the Caribbean Islands. Hopefully the trough remains strong in the east and sends any storms out to sea!!

[Gustywind]

Lana to track south of Hawaii, Atlantic quiet
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 1, 2009 10:47 am ET

In the Atlantic Basin, there are three tropical waves from the western Caribbean to the far eastern Atlantic.

No development is expected with the Caribbean wave, however an interaction with strong westerly winds aloft is producing showers and thunderstorms near Central America

The two Atlantic waves are of no concern at this time and contain very little, if any, shower activity.

A low pressure area will move off western Africa by tomorrow and will be monitored as it moves into a dry, stable environment.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[Sanibel]

Back to deadsville. Dry, stable atmospheric dominating.


We really do have an Andrew-like favorability backdrop this year.

[jinftl]

Shear is now low south of 15N-20N across a vast stretch of the atlantic....this is not something we have seen alot of to date...quite possibly one less inhibiting factor at this moment across the areas we would look to for develop in august....let's see if it persists

[Ptarmigan]

Info I got from a met - globally, the monsoon has been suppressed this season. This probably accounts for the decreased activity worldwide, as it is the monsoon that helps spawn the easterly waves in Africa and the WPAC disturbances, both seedlings of TC's.

Many tropical cyclones do come from monsoon troughs and in many ways tropical waves for the Atlantic come from them. I know these tropical waves can be traced from eastern part of Africa. Hurricane Ike can be traced from a mesoscale convective system that formed in Sudan.

I also heard one reason why 1977 was inactive was likely due to monsoon as well. Philippines was in a drought that time. Also, the ambient pressure was higher than normal in the Atlantic.

Large File!
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... s/1977.pdf

[jinftl]

What is interesting is that as late-to-get-going and as light of a season 1977 was in terms of the number of storms (only 6), there were two bursts of activity when groups of storms were forming in the span of a week or less.

Anita - formed August 29
Babe - formed September 3
Clara - formed September 6

Evelyn - formed October 13
Frieda - formed October 16

Certainly a scenario we could see unfold this year....get a few days of very favorable conditions and systems being in an area to capitalize on those conditions, and it is not surprising that this can happen.

Info I got from a met - globally, the monsoon has been suppressed this season. This probably accounts for the decreased activity worldwide, as it is the monsoon that helps spawn the easterly waves in Africa and the WPAC disturbances, both seedlings of TC's.

Many tropical cyclones do come from monsoon troughs and in many ways tropical waves for the Atlantic come from them. I know these tropical waves can be traced from eastern part of Africa. Hurricane Ike can be traced from a mesoscale convective system that formed in Sudan.

I also heard one reason why 1977 was inactive was likely due to monsoon as well. Philippines was in a drought that time. Also, the ambient pressure was higher than normal in the Atlantic.

Large File!
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/li ... s/1977.pdf

[cycloneye]

I posted the HPC discussion at the wave thread,but I forgot this one.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND THE
EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION (EWP) MODELS SHOW MJO OVER THE DOMAIN
GRADUALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE...WITH BOTH SHOWING CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC/EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE SECOND WEEK IN AUGUST.
THEY...HOWEVER...DIFFER ON HOW LONG CONDITIONS ARE TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE...WITH THE EWP SHOWING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UP TO
THREE WEEKS...WHILE THE CFS TAPERS OFF AFTER TWO. WE ARE DUE FOR A
LONG STRETCH...SO WE ARE LEANING IN FAVOR OF WHAT THE EWP
SUGGESTS.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[Bluefrog]

Amen to it being SPOOKY ..... come out come out wherever you are little storms .....

[Category 5]

Not quiet anymore, the Pacific is active now.



Not that anybody cares.