When will the first named storm form in Atlantic Basin?

[hcane27]

and wow. hard to believe 88% of us were wrong

Just goes to show ya nobody can predict this stuff

so far it appears as though 12% can predict ...... so far .....

[cycloneye]

Only a few hours left before 4 more bite the dust including me .That would leave only 9 still alive.

[Category 5]

Time to add a "Never" option. Its done, no storms this year, tropics are flat lined, season cancel!

[ConvergenceZone]

Time to add a "Never" option. Its done, no storms this year, tropics are flat lined, season cancel!

HEHE. I wonder if there ever will be a year like that, where there are no named storms? I guess you can never say never in the world of weather.

[angelwing]

Oh well, add me to the bite the dust ,ist for tonight

[Ed Mahmoud]

My July 21st to 31st looks to bust.

Well into August, if I had to guess.

[srainhoutx]

My July 21st to 31st looks to bust.

Well into August, if I had to guess.

We've got another few days Ed. Watch the NHC classify the mess off the EC. I wonder who the other member is that guessed the last week of July?

[wxman57]

My July 21st to 31st looks to bust.

Well into August, if I had to guess.

We've got another few days Ed. Watch the NHC classify the mess off the EC. I wonder who the other member is that guessed the last week of July?

You two people I disagree with!

We all know now that August 8th will be the day Ana forms (unless NHC names the semi-tropical low that forms on the cold front off the east coast from soon-to-be Invest 98L)

[m_ru]

Precognition can be a powerful thing. I just wish your "abilities" could pinpoint where Ana will form and where she's going!!! I'll believe until proved otherwise. I just hope she forms way out there. I'll be in Germany from July 30th to August 10th. If I don't get to track her or she threatens my area while I'm out of town...I will be livid. Murderously livid.

[wxman57]

Precognition can be a powerful thing. I just wish your "abilities" could pinpoint where Ana will form and where she's going!!! I'll believe until proved otherwise. I just hope she forms way out there. I'll be in Germany from July 30th to August 10th. If I don't get to track her or she threatens my area while I'm out of town...I will be livid. Murderously livid.

Hi m_ru!,

Noticed your location - Gautier. My mother has lived there since 1976. She lives just across from Singing River Mall down Dolphin Rd. on Sea Bass. Say hi to her for me.

[m_ru]

Precognition can be a powerful thing. I just wish your "abilities" could pinpoint where Ana will form and where she's going!!! I'll believe until proved otherwise. I just hope she forms way out there. I'll be in Germany from July 30th to August 10th. If I don't get to track her or she threatens my area while I'm out of town...I will be livid. Murderously livid.

Hi m_ru!,

Noticed your location - Gautier. My mother has lived there since 1976. She lives just across from Singing River Mall down Dolphin Rd. on Sea Bass. Say hi to her for me.

What a small world! I'll tell her how handy her son's expertise has been for me!

[wxman57]

There aren't many days left in July...

Just 10 more days until Ana forms - August 8th.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There aren't many days left in July...

Just 10 more days until Ana forms - August 8th.

OK, you have an entire month to work with, and it'd be unusual for nothing to form in August, but August 8th is probably at least a week too early.

[Derek Ortt]

august 8 may be way too early, lol

[hial2]

Ok,here's the deal to make things interesting for the next 2 weeks or so..if a TC forms is the Atlantic on August 8th,I'll dance wearing a tu-tu on the street of your choice @ Charlotte NC and I'll post a picture here..be aware,I'm a 58 y/o male in not the best shape and with a wife who'll be very upset if i do it..I'm literally putting my neck on the line..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro on August 8th, the day WxMan57's first named storm of the season DOES NOT form, likes a weak inverted trough that pinched off from a polar trough to move into Mexico and put Texas on the happy side of it.


Link


I'll be plenty happy with an inverted 500 mb trough. And enhanced sea breeze activity.

Note also the cool EPac hurricane. The West Coast trough is actually building SW, so that storm doesn't look to threaten Hawai'i.

But remember when Iwa hit. Hawai'i's hurricane season is a long lasting one.

[wxman57]

august 8 may be way too early, lol

Yeah, I know. Seemed like a good date, though, and it is on a Saturday. They always form on weekends.

[wxman57]

Euro on August 8th, the day WxMan57's first named storm of the season DOES NOT form, likes a weak inverted trough that pinched off from a polar trough to move into Mexico and put Texas on the happy side of it.


Link


I'll be plenty happy with an inverted 500 mb trough. And enhanced sea breeze activity.

Note also the cool EPac hurricane. The West Coast trough is actually building SW, so that storm doesn't look to threaten Hawai'i.

But remember when Iwa hit. Hawai'i's hurricane season is a long lasting one.

The 00Z Euro doesn't go out to August 8th, just 7pm CDT August 7th. And Ana won't be big enough yet to show up on the 500mb chart until the 9th or 10th of August.

[Ed Mahmoud]

When it is midnight it England on August 8th, half the world is already August 8th.


BTW, Mimic animation shows cool wave about to emerge into the East Pac at low latitude, East of Panama and Colombia.


Is that the Euro mondo-storm?

I don't know...

[wxman57]

When it is midnight it England on August 8th, half the world is already August 8th.


BTW, Mimic animation shows cool wave about to emerge into the East Pac at low latitude, East of Panama and Colombia.


Is that the Euro mondo-storm?

I don't know...

My August 8th is CDT, not UTC. As for the MIMIC imagery, we actually went to their archives and saved all images from 2008. We created a loop of the entire season and also focused on the systems that formed from tropical waves from the time they moved off the coast of Africa through landfall. We found that many, if not most of the moderate waves moving off the coast of Africa exhibited significant low to mid-level rotation. But only a few developed. We're trying to see if we can identify a pattern that we may be able to use to identify likely formation 2-5 days in advance. Might even submit an abstract for next year's conference on tropical meteorology in Tucson, AZ if we discover something interesting.