Perfect Season

[Frank2]

With a few days left in July, it's pretty certain that this month will also be at zero for any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, and with El Nino increasing (and SAL, and below-normal SST's), it's very possible that any activity that could form (before the El Nino/Fall shear becomes even stronger than it is now) would be in the short 6 week period of early August though late September, so...

Considering the above, it's possible that 2009 might be the perfect season - with no named systems...

We'll see - sure, the chance is low at best, but it's something to consider (especially since the Miami Dolphins did accomplish that feat in 1972)...

Almost football (already),

LOL

[Macrocane]

Perfect? BORING!!!

[Gustywind]

With a few days left in July, it's pretty certain that this month will also be at zero for any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, and with El Nino increasing (and SAL, and below-normal SST's), it's very possible that any activity that could form (before the El Nino/Fall shear becomes even stronger than it is now) would be in the short 6 week period of early August though late September, so...

Considering the above, it's possible that 2009 might be the perfect season - with no named systems...

We'll see - sure, the chance is low at best, but it's something to consider (especially since the Miami Dolphins did accomplish that feat in 1972)...

Almost football (already),

LOL

What is your reasoning about a perfect season?

[Frank2]

Well, it's at least partially based on the 2006 El Nino event, that essentially ended the season after late September...

The shear so far this summer is as strong as during that period, so as the Fall season approaches it's likely to only become stronger (or the environment more hostile for tropical cyclone development), so it's at least a possibility that we might see a "nameless" season...

Again, the chance is low, but it's an interesting thought (but should not be compared to those "season cancel" comments)...

[somethingfunny]

The 1972 Dolphins played a 14-game season. (17 total wins) With today's standards, the Patriots nearly did it in 2007 but fell one short of the 19 wins needed; I don't believe anybody's had a perfect season under the new schedule....except the 2008 Detroit Lions anyway.

The 1914 season had a handicap in its favor also - no sattelite imagery and limited shipping reports - and it still managed to squeeze out a named storm. In today's era it would be an even more difficult feat to accomplish....although as the Lions proved, anything is (im)possible.

[Frank2]

True, it's very possible that the 1914 season did have more than one system, though as told to me by Gil Clark (a forecaster at the NHC in the 1980's), in those days ship reports were kept my most every ship and were very accurate (being in the post-Titanic period shipping companies were very aware of the need to be vigalent when it came to alerting others of shipping hazards), so it's possible that there were no other cyclones that season...

As for the Patriots - ahem - it was shown that they cheated, unlike the Dolphins, who were a "poor but honest" team, by today's standards (some of the players actually worked at regular jobs during the week!)...

So, the Dolphins are still No. 1...

LOL

[Sanibel]

No way.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We already did have one TD and another one curouis storm which may get some post season upgrade. But regardless, GREAT SEASON.

[Frank2]

You're right - I forgot about TD-1...

Well, it'll have to be a perfect season as far as no named storms (it this were football, TD-1 would be like losing an exhibition game in the pre-season)...

[KWT]

Shear actually isn't the problem, the air is just too stable overall, if you look at the shear maps they are actually rather close to where you'd expect for this time of year, whilst the surface divergence has been way higher then normal, thats whats stuffed it up so far.

However I think your right about the short season, but you can easily get 8-10 storms in 6 weeks, of course there is 2004 but also 2002 had that sort of development in terms of named storms.

[Ptarmigan]

Shear actually isn't the problem, the air is just too stable overall, if you look at the shear maps they are actually rather close to where you'd expect for this time of year, whilst the surface divergence has been way higher then normal, thats whats stuffed it up so far.

However I think your right about the short season, but you can easily get 8-10 storms in 6 weeks, of course there is 2004 but also 2002 had that sort of development in terms of named storms.

The open Atlantic is dominated by high pressure and there are no clouds. There is shear towards the Caribbean, which is typical in an El Nino year. I have read the dust from Sahara is actually less this year.

[wxman57]

With a few days left in July, it's pretty certain that this month will also be at zero for any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, and with El Nino increasing (and SAL, and below-normal SST's), it's very possible that any activity that could form (before the El Nino/Fall shear becomes even stronger than it is now) would be in the short 6 week period of early August though late September, so...

Considering the above, it's possible that 2009 might be the perfect season - with no named systems...

We'll see - sure, the chance is low at best, but it's something to consider (especially since the Miami Dolphins did accomplish that feat in 1972)...

Almost football (already),

LOL

I'm sure everyone on this board shares in your desire for that "perfect season" in 2009. No one here wants a storm to develop, right? After going through Ike last year, I could enjoy a zero-storm season.

[JonathanBelles]

From a person with your background, I am astonished to hear your words. Any meteorologist or meteorologist-to-be could not scientifically say that there will be a zero-storm season, especially when we haven't hit August yet. I also do not see any signs of El Nino becoming any stronger right now. This is all being said in a scientific view.

[BigA]

I'm not sure a so-called perfect season has to include no named storms, because in theory, no named storms could make people complacent for the next year. Perhaps a perfect season would be one in which there are a lot of storms which threaten the coast, but none which directly impact it or take any lives.

[wxman57]

From a person with your background, I am astonished to hear your words. Any meteorologist or meteorologist-to-be could not scientifically say that there will be a zero-storm season, especially when we haven't hit August yet. I also do not see any signs of El Nino becoming any stronger right now. This is all being said in a scientific view.

Sorry to astonish you. My forecast for the season is 10/5/2. The post above was in jest.

[Stormcenter]

No chance in my opinion.

When all is said and done I believe we'll
see 8-11 named systems.

[Frank2]

First, I can understand wxman's hope, since the Texas coast is still suffering from last season's landfall...

Some say that the chance is non-existent for a "non-storm" season to happen - but look at what happened during Vortex2 - who would have thought (or bet $1,000) that they'd only find one (1) viable tornado in five weeks of driving?

As the saying goes (or went, in Rocky), "Las Vegas odds-makers say no!"...

Here in South Florida, forecasters (OCM's and NWS) were confident that today would only feature "scattered morning showers", but we've been receiving train-echo thunderstorms since 12:30 p.m., so, as the saying goes, "If you want to make God smile, tell everyone what is going to happen tomorrow".

Frank

[hurricanetrack]

I wonder if there end up being no named storms at all in the Atlantic if the govt will take away any funding for hurricane research? No hurricanes= perception that the danger is gone. Spend the money on something else....until another Katrina or Andrew comes along and spoils the party. We'd better hope that A) hurricanes have become extinct and we just don't know it or B) several of them form and get close enough to land areas to warrant a need for continued research, recon and plans to deal with them when they do hit. Because if they have not gone extinct, one will hit land sooner or later and people will want to know as much as they can about the intensity, etc. Right? Perhaps Bill Gates has succeeded and we just have not heard it yet.

[Macrocane]

If Bill Gates has succeded than we will begin to notice even more weird patterns in the Atlantic weather and climate and there will be a great ecological impact, but I really doubt it

[BigA]

Personally, I think a perfect season might include a weak tropical storm making landfall on the central Texas coast and causing a nice amount of rain in south central Texas. They certainly need it.