2009 season in Atlantic Basin will be like which past year?

[Category 5]

I know this is highly unlikely but what if 2009 season ends up a goose egg.It could happen.

if that happens half this board will commit suicide.

[boca]

I know this is highly unlikely but what if 2009 season ends up a goose egg.It could happen.

if that happens half this board will commit suicide.

Very true category 5 but we know it won't happen although we probably haven't seen a year like this since the mid 80's.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I know this is highly unlikely but what if 2009 season ends up a goose egg.It could happen.

Perhaps we should dial up ED for a season cancel post

[Macrocane]

I know this is highly unlikely but what if 2009 season ends up a goose egg.It could happen.

if that happens half this board will commit suicide.

I will I think it's more probable an inactive season than an active one, to have a season similar to 2004 sounds to me more like a wishcast than a real possibility. By the way I voted 1997.

[boca]

I know this is highly unlikely but what if 2009 season ends up a goose egg.It could happen.

Perhaps we should dial up ED for a season cancel post

Hey Ed how bout it, start the season canel threat on July 28th, that would be classic.

[psyclone]

I voted for 2006. I'm feeling good about my pre season poll guess of 8-4-1 which, incidentally, I believe was the lowest guess of anyone. And while it may be boring for storm watchers, it sure is nice not to have anything to worry about thus far. Of course, I think of real hurricane season as August, September and October. In many years you can pretty much forget June, July and November so the next 100 days will tell the tale.

[Nimbus]

to have a season similar to 2004 sounds to me more like a wishcast than a real possibility

So far we have exactly duplicated 2004 with 0 storms. I love that part, no loss of life and nothing to worry about. The long range models have been hinting at a similar Atlantic ridge pattern to 2004 towards the beginning of August. The western extent of the ridge is near Florida so troughs would dig down through Texas and protect the western gulf. That is the only real similarity to 2004 at this point and it could change by next week. Lets hope the ridge returns further east and a TUTT reforms like our early season pattern so Florida gets a break. If the ridge were to build further west all the gulf states would be in danger.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No season cancel post. At least 3, and you have to admire the way Florida has East, West and South facing coasts, tripling their chances that something coming from some direction hits.


Re-ead part of the 1928 Lake Okechobee disaster book in the men's room last night (TMI- I was in their several times), and just got to thinking, busy season or slow as molasses, Florida is never exactly safe.

[Category 5]

Well before you all start hanging yourselves, remember theres always the pacific.

[Macrocane]

Well before you all start hanging yourselves, remember theres always the pacific.

Which has been inactive too , although more active than the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

I know this is highly unlikely but what if 2009 season ends up a goose egg.It could happen.

That would be a dream come true for emergency managers...

[OuterBanker]

Didn't see any years I would use. JB's latest rant states that of the 10 best comparable years that 1960 showed up twice and 54 shows up four times. Pattern years of 54 and 2006. Needless to say I'm hoping he is wrong. Although those years were all down in numbers they were particularly bad for the east coast (Donna, Carol, and Hazel come to mind).

Of course the point is that the comparable years can change. In a week it will be something different because the conditions will change and so will the comparables.

It really is anybody's guess.

Me, well I'm hoping he will drop 54 and 60 as comparables:)

[OuterBanker]

Didn't see any years I would use. JB's latest rant states that of the 10 best comparable years that 1960 showed up twice and 54 shows up four times. Pattern years of 54 and 2006. Needless to say I'm hoping he is wrong. Although those years were all down in numbers they were particularly bad for the east coast (Donna, Carol, and Hazel come to mind).

Of course the point is that the comparable years can change. In a week it will be something different because the conditions will change and so will the comparables.

It really is anybody's guess.

Me, well I'm hoping he will drop 54 and 60 as comparables:)

[KWT]

Well before you all start hanging yourselves, remember theres always the pacific.

The EPAC basin has hardly been that impressive this year either, two TS systems, a short lived hurricane and a midget that maybe stronger then some are saying.

Also the WPAC is hardly firing that impressivly though at least with that basin even in a slow season your going to get quite a lot of stuff to follow over a year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there a correlation between very cold winters and inactivity over Florida?
While 2005 was a cold winter over most of the Gulf in FL it wasn't that cold,
but January 2003 was frigid and 2003 was rather quiet for most of Florida.
Also January-February 2009 was frigid so that should keep hurricane threat down?

The cold winter-and it was a frigid winter- we had maybe is keeping Sea temperatures low enough
to stop hurricanes from forming?
Well No, ssts are warm

but I guess the troughs are creating more shear

[Jinkers]

I picked other, 2009 will be it's own season, whatever that may be.