2009 season in Atlantic Basin will be like which past year?

[cycloneye]

This is an unscientific poll about which of the past seasons will be like the North Atlantic 2009 season.The poll will be open until August 2nd at 8:53 AM EDT.The poll options are not in order of years.

I will go with 2006.

If any member wants to make comments about this interesting theme,stop by and go ahead.And if members vote for the option other,replie about why the vote for another year not listed in the poll.

[wxman57]

2006. Not much activity in the Caribbean. Storms concentrated to the north of the Caribbean, many "fish" storms. 10/5/2 (or less)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I almost went 1983, but that had a Texas impact. I think we get more than 1 storm, ( I am sort of leaning to the lower end of the UKMO's 3 to 9) as 1914 may have had an undetected fish or two, but somewhere between 1983 and 1914.


Dust, fast Easterlies, and shear. And subsidence. And more dust and shear.

[srainhoutx]

1967 (Other). Watch and see.

[cycloneye]

1967 (Other). Watch and see.

We dodged a big bullet as Beulah passed just south of PR as a cat 3.

[Ed Mahmoud]

1967 (Other). Watch and see.

I was 3. Now I'll have to search the interwebs, I don't recall that season at all.


Another Beulah- developing East of the Lesser Antilles and crossing the entire Caribbean and Gulf, sure seems unlikely.

In Texas upon landfall, an 18 feet (5.5 m) to 20 feet (6.1 m) storm surge inundated lower Padre Island. The force of the storm tide made 31 cuts completely through the barrier island.[1] Padre Island suffered significant devastation, and the island's sensitive ecosystem was altered by the storm. The highest sustained wind was reported as 136 miles per hour (219 km/h), recorded in the town of South Padre Island, across the Laguna Madre from Port Isabel. Winds as high as 109 miles per hour (175 km/h) were measured at the Brownsville National Weather Service office at landfall. Since the hurricane bent the anemometer 30 degrees from the vertical, it is possible the winds at Brownsville were underestimated.

(From Wiki)

[srainhoutx]

1967 (Other). Watch and see.

I was 3.

You young whipper snapper. J/K Ed

[hcane27]

1991

[TYNI]

2004

[wzrgirl1]

2004

[boca]

I went with 2006 with 10 named storms.I was also thinking 1983 with only 4 storms said nah we'll probably closer to 10.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see I'm the only one going 1914, except we'll catch a storm or two extra on satellite. Or, sort of a 1983/1914 hybrid, except Florida (and Hawai'i) are the two states most at risk from the 3 to 6 storms.



Double Post Alert


Well, since insolation sort of resembles a sine wave, and the instantaneous rate of change of the sine function is the cosine function (while the instantaneous change in rate of the natural logarithm, e^x, happens to be e^x, one of the few things not destroyed by beer drinking from college), and we're a month past solar peak, we're finally really dropping in insolation. The atmosphere lags about a month, the sea surface temps lag more than that.

Anyway, the Colombian heat low is soon to start fading somewhat as the Caribbean starts warming relative to South America, and the super-Easterlies should weaken some. Based on GFS initialization of 250 mb winds, shear should be lessening over much of the basin.




But we still have plenty of SAL


And GFS ensemble upward motion products look pretty darned unfavorable the next two weeks, at least.

[KWT]

Its certainly possible Ed we could have that sort of season, wouldn't surprise me to now to see this season be the slowest since the 80s, that means possibly slower then 1997 but we shall have to wait and see. Right now its still rather dead out there and nothing really showing any signs.

[StormClouds63]

Just a guess:
1987: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[StormClouds63]

In addition to 1987, forgot to include 1993 as another possibility:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[cycloneye]

Good poll so far in terms of the voting for the distint options.Those who haved not voted yet have plenty of time until next sunday morning at 8:53 AM EDT to vote for your year of preference that may match 2009.Or if you have a year that is not listed in the poll,you have the option (Other).

[Ed Mahmoud]

1987 would have been a good choice for the poll.


I'll claim moral victory anywhere between 3 and 6 storms, with 1 Florida or East Coast threat.

[Category 5]

It will be like 2009. Just a hunch.

[brunota2003]

I'm guessing 2009 will be like no other year...a year destined to baffle scientists and amateurs alike.

[boca]

I know this is highly unlikely but what if 2009 season ends up a goose egg.It could happen.