Wave has the runs, models have the slows

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Scott_inVA
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Wave has the runs, models have the slows

#1 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Jul 31, 2003 5:49 pm

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

The GFS is coming around re: clueless mega-trof in the Atlantic and tropicals are responding.

However, get ready for an August Surprise!

The wave remains too fast for development...models are behind the curve on this b/c there is very little data out there, despite "reasonable" initializations. Hence, the models are no where near fast enough...yet.
They will catch on as system gets near 50-55. RECCO is extremely valuable and my hope is the POD holds for Friday.

The models will get the idea as the system moves west and one can expect a rapid change in their output. Where? When? I really do not know...but I'm a good learner and we've seen this many times before with CVs.

Scott
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#2 Postby ameriwx2003 » Thu Jul 31, 2003 9:29 pm

Scott.. hmmmmmmmmm yes this is starting to get interesting. Whew, I have a feeling your dead on about an August surprise:):)
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#3 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jul 31, 2003 10:02 pm

looks like all the models expect TD#8 to ignore the weakness in the ridge, which would indicate it will stay weak till at least 50W
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#4 Postby OtherHD » Thu Jul 31, 2003 10:07 pm

August surprise? Explain please!! :D
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