somethin around bahamas (just east) RECON SCHED

[HURAKAN]

There is nothing else to watch!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Anyone know how long that trough extending down through Florida is suppose to last? Is it expected to lessen or draw back more NW over the next few days? TIA.



Not a wishcast or forecast, just an amateur weather lover here.

[cpdaman]

i would think a possible low to form in this atmosphere...would have nearly all the precip on it's N and E sides

I am looking at the area just east of andros island....http://adds.aviationweather.g ... &itype=vis

[Sanibel]

Loose curvature south of Hatteras.

[wxman57]

Pressures remaining steady or even rising a tad in the region. No evidence of anything at the surface as of 1pm CDT. Pressures just south of Hatteras in the 1020mb range. There is evidence of mid-level turning associated with the vorticity center. I suspect a weak surface low will form on the cold front to the SE-S of Cape Hatteras tonight, moving off to the NNE-NE at 20 kts over the next 48 hours. GFS track looks good - passing Hatteras around 12-15Z tomorrow, east of Cape Cod Friday morning and into Nova Scotia Friday night. This won't be a fully warm-core tropical low, but there is a chance the NHC could classify it an STD.

[TropicalWXMA]

CMC:

[wxman57]

GFS is similar. Starts out asymmetric warm core briefly then goes cold core. UKMET is cold core all the way.

[KWT]

Mind you look where they are starting it, probably quite a bit too far north of where any developing system would be at the moment, which no doubt makes a difference in terms of what the models expect.

[TropicalWXMA]

Mind you look where they are starting it, probably quite a bit too far north of where any developing system would be at the moment, which no doubt makes a difference in terms of what the models expect.

Noted. Just making it available to those who don't have access to it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

big yellow area, Bahamas to Hatteras, basically, but the TWOAT doesn't think much of the chances.

ABNT20 KNHC 222327
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

This system doesn't look remotely tropical now, just a wave on the front. Tropics are now quiet again.

[HURAKAN]

Can we use HAARP to get Ana from this? Sorry, I couldn't help it after that HC show!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can we use HAARP to get Ana from this? Sorry, I couldn't help it after that HC show!!!

It would sort of be cheating, but probably the only chance of a July 21-July 31 first named system.

Unfair, I had ten days, August is an entire month...

[srainhoutx]

Can we use HAARP to get Ana from this? Sorry, I couldn't help it after that HC show!!!

It would sort of be cheating, but probably the only chance of a July 21-July 31 first named system.

Unfair, I had ten days, August is an entire month...

Me too. And wxman57 called us people I disagree with. The Horror...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just because it isn't exactly tropical, well, look, 30 knot winds!

Per GFS

[cycloneye]

892
ABNT20 KNHC 231148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
NON-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFER TO STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FROM
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

Is has the look of a gale center but NHC has decided to have a invest up for it.Thread is locked.Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions.

Link to thread at Active Storms Forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=105931&p=1895045#p1895045