18z update of tropical models tracks shows a west shift
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- cycloneye
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18z update of tropical models tracks shows a west shift
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html
Only GFDL has a north bias but that run is old so that will change with the next run tonight.What a day makes from a fish system to a threatening one to be for the islands but hopefully if it develops it is not a strong system meaning a hurricane.
Only GFDL has a north bias but that run is old so that will change with the next run tonight.What a day makes from a fish system to a threatening one to be for the islands but hopefully if it develops it is not a strong system meaning a hurricane.
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- mf_dolphin
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- Stormsfury
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IMO, this is getting complicated ...
The GFDL may be initializing the wrong area, period ... and focusing on what looks like the MLC, or what's left of it. In fact, the LLC is nowhere near that area (so this may be quite an old run of the GFDL).
The LLC, though, not as pronounced as yesterday, is more embedded in the around 9ºN around the convective ring, and more in line where the clustering of the other models are now ... Invest 90L still suffers from easterly shear and I believe the LLC is around 9.3ºN, and 37ºW ... or just NE of the deeper convection ...
Whatever the case, looks like we're witnessing a separation of the MLC and LLC ...
SF
The GFDL may be initializing the wrong area, period ... and focusing on what looks like the MLC, or what's left of it. In fact, the LLC is nowhere near that area (so this may be quite an old run of the GFDL).
The LLC, though, not as pronounced as yesterday, is more embedded in the around 9ºN around the convective ring, and more in line where the clustering of the other models are now ... Invest 90L still suffers from easterly shear and I believe the LLC is around 9.3ºN, and 37ºW ... or just NE of the deeper convection ...
Whatever the case, looks like we're witnessing a separation of the MLC and LLC ...
SF
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- Stormsfury
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ColdFront77 wrote:A tropical cyclone has a surface low with low pressure circulations aloft northwest of each other, the higher up into the atmosphere. So the MLC and LLC separating in the "right locations" would be prime for development.
In this case, the decaying area northeast of the LLC is somewhat robbing the LLC's moisture on the northern end ... however, as that area pulls away and weakens, I'm expecting a better inflow and an increase of convection around the northern end of the LLC and IMO, Invest 90L will be a depression very soon ... if not, by tonight.
SF
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