Ex 97L

[Aric Dunn]

man check this thing out... it going ..
depression tomorrow evening if it keeps this up.. very evident low level circulation .. latest microwave even showing it..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[SETXWXLADY]

man check this thing out... it going ..
depression tomorrow evening if it keeps this up.. very evident low level circulation .. latest microwave even showing it..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

It definitely looks a lot healthier than earlier. The models are all over the place with this system. Track wise they have it going to near the BOC and into Mexico. Another crosses Fla. and into Carolinas. Yet another takes up east of Fla. in the Atlantic then into South Carolina. I'm not even sure if they are initializing 97L or the other wave or both. It keeps going like it is now they should have a better grip on things. Should be interesting to watch.

[Nimbus]

The SST's are getting a little warmer as ex97l moves further west. The retreating TUTT will define the northwestern extent of the high that is forecast to build over the islands. This wave is moving fast enough that it should be west of the ridge axis. If the convection stacks up much it should track more WNW and stay out of the gulf. Still a serious rain threat for the islands though.

[KWT]

Actually not looking all that bad right now, I'd expect this to be put back as an invest very soon if it keeps this convection going.

[HURAKAN]

Sorry for my lack of shear!

[cycloneye]

The thread at Active Storms forum about invest 97L is open for comments and in fact it has stayed open since it was deactivated.If is activated again,this thread will be locked.

[cycloneye]

958
ABNT20 KNHC 191141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
[/b]

[cycloneye]

97L has been activated once again,so this thread is locked.Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions about this system there.

Link to 97L thread at active storms forum.

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