Invest 90 L is dead. Thank God

rob8303 · #1 Postby **rob8303** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 3:54 pm

I’m just checking in after several hours away so if my post is outdated, please forgive me. But I’ve been thinking (it’s just a gut feeling) that the 90 IV tropical wave will never form into a tropical depression, let alone a hurricane. In fact, my gut tells me this storm is pretty much dead in the water and will probably travel the Atlantic as just a tropical wave. Why do I say this? Well I remember all the expectations that TD 6 would form into a t.s and maybe even a hurricane and it never did. I had the same feeling about T.D 6 that I have about this storm. I mean, why isn’t it developing in generally favourable conditions. If it hasn’t developed by now, I don’t think it ever will. And, this morning you guys were talking about part of the storm being elongated and the center forming farther north. This doesn’t sound like the type of storm to worry about and I’ll go out on a limb and declare the 9O IV dead. It will never harm anyone except perhaps a perturbed fish. I’d be willing to bet money if I actually knew you guys that nothing ever comes of this storm. I don’t know anything more than you guys do but I just have a feeling. What do you guys think the reasons are for why as the NHC advisory at 10:30 edt this morning puts it “the tropical wave has changed little over the past few hours”. If you still think it will be a named storm, why hasn’t it done anything yet and when do you think it will? I should also point out the fact that it’s travelling far to fast (25 mph) to ever develop into anything. I hope you guys don’t think of me as a troll. I’m just saying my gut feeling.
Look forward to your replies and I hope I’m right about this not developing. I don’t want to see anyone get hurt. Thank god for killing another wave that could have been very threatening.

OtherHD · #2 Postby **OtherHD** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 3:57 pm

If it doesn't refire convection overnight, you'll probably be right.

ColdFront77 · #3 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:00 pm

As I have mentioned a few times already and others may of as well. What became Tropical Storm and Hurricane Claudette was moving around 25 miles per hour.

Just because a system with an appearance we see on satellite imagery today isn't being declared a tropical depression, does not mean it won't be one in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Time after time, tropical disturbance lose convection, but a well defined low level circulation continues and convection may or may not take awhile to refire and we have a tropical cyclone developing. So, if and when we don't see convection refire after a period of time doesn't mean tropical development doesn't occur.

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:05 pm

Are we looking at the same system? It has never looked more impressive than it does right now at 4pm CDT. The center appears to be tightening up, and convection is firing over an apparent LLC near 10N/37W. I expect it to be upgraded to TD 8 tomorrow morning, if not at 10pm tonight. But I can't see the NHC upgrading it until some visible images are available tomorrow to confirm that the convection remains over/near the circulation center. I could certainly understand the NHC not upgrading it earlier today, as there was no convection near the center.

I would also point out that I'm measuring a forward speed closer to 12-15 mph now, quite good for development.

Finally, note that the Dvorak classification has risen from 1.0 this morning to 1.5 as of noon.

Lindaloo · #5 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:09 pm

Are we talking about the Bahama Mama or the new wave in the Atlantic? If you are talking about the wave then someone needs to look again. She is definitely getting her spin together!

wow · #6 Postby **wow** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:13 pm

Lindaloo wrote:Are we talking about the Bahama Mama or the new wave in the Atlantic? If you are talking about the wave then someone needs to look again. She is definitely getting her spin together!

aw, just let him be. He's from Canada.. :wink:

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:19 pm

I was responding to Rob's post.

I see the system getting its act together. This is destin to become a tropical depression pretty soon, indeed, if this convection at least holds.

Lindaloo · #8 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:19 pm

LOL wow... I was just giving my opinion and saying WHAT at the same time. :lol:

rob8303 · #9 Postby **rob8303** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:23 pm

Just for clarification, I'm talking about the Cape Verde Wave that has garnered so much attention. Thanks for the insight. I won't write it off, YET

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:37 pm

Way too early to write off....this happens on the boards with almost every storm before it gets its act together.

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 7:21 pm

Rob get a life - it ain't dead. TD8 is getting ready to be born. Go back to the basics and learn about the tropics from the real pros hear at STORM2k - quit listening to rainstorm. Enuff said.

Lindaloo · #12 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 8:06 pm

ticka1 wrote:Rob get a life - it ain't dead. TD8 is getting ready to be born. Go back to the basics and learn about the tropics from the real pros hear at STORM2k - quit listening to rainstorm. Enuff said.

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! Unbelievable. ticka? LOL!!!

#13 Postby **Stephanie** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 8:12 pm

ticka1 wrote:Rob get a life - it ain't dead. TD8 is getting ready to be born. Go back to the basics and learn about the tropics from the real pros hear at STORM2k - quit listening to rainstorm. Enuff said.

I agree Lindaloo! Geez Ticka - you're not mad at me are you?? :o

Guest · #14 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 8:37 pm

Mad at who? I'm not mad at anyone. Just wanted to state to ROB that 90L is not dead.

Sorry if I offended anyone.

Patricia

Lindaloo · #15 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 8:52 pm

Oh my goodness ticka, you did not offend anyone. lol. Actually you hit the nail on the head.

mf_dolphin · #16 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 9:24 pm

Far far from dead! LOL

#17 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Aug 01, 2003 8:48 am

ticka1 wrote:Mad at who? I'm not mad at anyone. Just wanted to state to ROB that 90L is not dead.

Sorry if I offended anyone.

Patricia

OH GOD NO TICKA! I was just pulling your leg! I've never seen you fire off a reply at someone like that before! No offense at all and I apologize for the mis-understanding I caused!

Colin · #18 Postby **Colin** » Fri Aug 01, 2003 8:55 am

Jeez! Don't you like Rob or something? :lol:

OtherHD · #19 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:14 am

OtherHD wrote:If it doesn't refire convection overnight, you'll probably be right.

Well guys, looks like Rob was right. 90L looks pathetic...it did not refire convection overnight, so I am writing it off for the next 2-3 days. After then, who knows. Models don't show anything developing, so the chances aren't that high.

Steve H. · #20 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:58 am

Don't be silly folks. 90L is in the developing stages. She has a good structure and should start firing convection tonight. Boy, Ticka had her Wheaties this morning :o LOL! I'm also quite interested in the circulation North of Purto Rico. Seems to me this is the more immediate threat. Patience all! Cheers!!

Invest 90 L is dead. Thank God

Invest 90 L is dead. Thank God

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