#27 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:27 am
WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.5N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.6N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.5N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.7N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 122.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 07W CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS QUICKLY BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DEVELOPING TOWARD THE LLCC. AS
TS 07W TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF LUZON, THE INFLOW OF RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR (APPARENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS) HAS LED TO A
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER,
THIS HAS BEEN OFFSET BY INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS PRESENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) PRODUCTS INDICATE
THERE IS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP, WARM WATER BETWEEN LUZON AND TAIWAN
HELPING TO FUEL A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE
OHC WILL DECREASE AS TS 07W TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 36 AND QUICKLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, WITH FULL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
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