EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian appears to initialize Carlos a touch weak, but seems to like a storm behind it even more.


There is disturbed weather East of Carlos...


Canadian moves an anticyclone with Carlos, and, of course, the FSU plots end before Carlos gets particularly close, but seems to show a protective wall of 60 knot shear protecting Hawai'i.

[Cyclenall]

this looks like a lead pipe cinch to become a cat 4

Who are you and what have you done to the real Derek!

This current lopsided look is something I have seen in previous cyclones but I can't remember which ones. It's almost the exact same look too. When viewing a loop, the piece of convection that is east and detached from the main part appears to be drawing itself toward the center. I didn't even think that was part of the system, just a outlier blob.

[cycloneye]

Belated 9z advisory.



WTPZ34 KNHC 110845
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...CARLOS STILL STRENGTHENING...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST OR ABOUT 955
MILES...1535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT THIS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.5N 116.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG





WTPZ44 KNHC 110846
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF CARLOS IS EMBEDDED BENEATH A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND A NEW CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER IS TAKING SHAPE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS 3.9. GIVEN THE RANGE OF
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO A CONSENSUS OF 55
KT.

CARLOS IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND IS MOVING AT 275/11. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS
THE RIDGE IMPEDES A NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE FORWARD MOTION A BIT...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SPECIFICALLY THE
GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.

THE KEY PROBLEM FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SHORT-TERM RATE OF
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX NOW INDICATES A 63%
CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES CARLOS A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. WITH THE RI
INDEX SO HIGH...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOS COULD
INTENSIFY QUICKER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN IS SHOWN IN THE
FORECAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...AND OCEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM THROUGH 96 HOURS TO
ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEYOND 24 HOURS. BY DAY 5...THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT CARLOS COULD COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN IT AND HAWAII...SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND MOST
ACTUALLY SHOW MORE WEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 10.5N 116.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 10.6N 118.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 10.9N 120.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 11.1N 122.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 11.4N 125.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 12.0N 130.4W 85 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 12.5N 135.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 140.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS shear during the next 120 hours peaks at a whole 7KT. Not seeing why there is weakening

[HURAKAN]

Carlos is probably one of the ugliest "near-hurricane intensity" storms I have seen. I has a good circulation but convection-wise still doesn't look good.

[cyclonic chronic]

estimated pressure drop in last 6 hrs is a mb. an hr.

[cycloneye]

When the people in Hawaii wake up and see this 06z GFDL run,they will make the expresion.Imagine a cat 3 crossing the 140W line.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cyclonic chronic]

wouldnt it be something if the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 09 occurs in the central pac.

[cycloneye]

A tad slower.

WHXX01 KMIA 111232
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS (EP042009) 20090711 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090711 1200 090712 0000 090712 1200 090713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 116.3W 10.2N 118.5W 10.3N 120.8W 10.5N 123.1W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS 78KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS 78KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090713 1200 090714 1200 090715 1200 090716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 125.5W 11.7N 129.8W 12.6N 133.3W 13.2N 137.0W
SHIP 79KTS 77KTS 66KTS 55KTS
DSHP 79KTS 77KTS 66KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 116.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 114.6W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 112.2W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Shear forecast from SHIPS.It increases the shear to 15 kts in 120 hours.

Code: Select all

               *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      CARLOS  EP042009  07/11/09  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    55    60    65    69    73    78    79    80    77    73    66    61    55
V (KT) LAND       55    60    65    69    73    78    79    80    77    73    66    61    55
V (KT) LGE mod    55    60    64    67    70    74    77    80    81    79    74    68    61

SHEAR (KT)         0     2     1     4     4     2     3     1     3     4    11    12    15
SHEAR DIR         11   286   299   307   354    31   304   179   274   297   276   284   294
SST (C)         29.1  29.1  29.0  28.7  28.5  28.3  28.4  28.0  27.9  28.1  27.6  27.2  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   156   156   155   152   150   148   149   145   144   146   141   137   134
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       9     9     9     9     8     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     59    54    57    57    59    59    61    56    55    54    54    52    51
GFS VTEX (KT)      8     8     9     9     9     8     8     8     8     7     6     6     4
850 MB ENV VOR   -25   -28   -29   -24   -25   -17    -8    -3    -2    -1    -2     0    -1
200 MB DIV        12    16    30    37    18    12     6    10    -1   -22     1    -5   -28
LAND (KM)       1552  1594  1644  1713  1789  1944  2076  2245  2439  2411  2133  1863  1599
LAT (DEG N)     10.3  10.5  10.6  10.7  10.8  11.0  11.4  11.7  11.9  12.1  12.5  13.0  13.6
LONG(DEG W)    116.3 117.5 118.6 119.9 121.1 123.6 126.0 128.5 131.1 133.6 136.2 138.7 141.1
STM SPEED (KT)    10    11    12    12    12    12    12    12    13    12    13    12    12
HEAT CONTENT      62    56    48    46    40    33    31    27    23    32    25    16     6

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  45            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  582  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  87.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   9.  11.  12.  12.  12.  11.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   9.  12.  13.  14.  14.  13.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -3.  -2.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -11.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  14.  18.  23.  24.  26.  22.  18.  11.   6.   0.

   ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042009     CARLOS 07/11/09  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   2.2 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  22.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  99.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.6 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  10.1 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.2
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  50.4 Range:  4.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    57% is   5.0 times the sample mean(11.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    47% is   6.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    35% is   6.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042009     CARLOS 07/11/09  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY     

[cycloneye]

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
712 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009

VALID 00Z SUN JUL 12 2009 - 00Z SUN JUL 19 2009

MODELS DISPLAY RELATIVELY SMALL SPREAD IN THE LARGER-SCALE
SCENARIO OVER HAWAII FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH THE REGION
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH BUT WITH A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
HIGH REMAINING NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY BRISK TRADES MOST DAYS WITH WINDWARD
AREAS RECEIVING PERIODIC RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM
CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAY 7...WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING ANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 5 DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR NEAR THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH.

JAMES

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxpa.html

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/forecast.php

[Macrocane]

When the people in Hawaii wake up and see this 06z GFDL run,they will make the expresion.Imagine a cat 3 crossing the 140W line.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

It has happened before, 2007 Hurricane Flossie crossed into the CPAC as a cat 4 hurricane, though it weakend rapidly as it passed just south of Hawaii.

[KWT]

Shear does seem to ramp up by the time the system reaches 140-150W according to the models, if thats the case then it should weaken as it gets close to Hawaii. Still think cat-3/4 is quite possible.

[cycloneye]

It continues to get more stronger.Later today,if this trend continues,an eye feature will emerge.

[HURAKAN]

A long way out.

[cycloneye]

922
WTPZ24 KNHC 111434
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 116.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 116.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTPZ34 KNHC 111435
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...CARLOS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST OR ABOUT 970
MILES...1560 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.4N 116.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
668
WTPZ44 KNHC 111437
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THE BANDING FEATURES PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED ARE CURRENTLY LESS DISTINCT
BUT THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. DURING THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1200
UTC...THE PATTERN WAS A LITTLE RAGGED AND THE T-NUMBER CAME DOWN TO
3.0. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SYMMETRIC SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF A 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. IN
FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE DAY...JUST RECEIVED...SHOWS
THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING.

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT ALONG THE
FORECAST PATH OF CARLOS UNTIL IT INCREASES AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. BY THEN...THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER.
THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND CARLOS SHOULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN TWO OR THREE
DAYS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH GFDL
AND HWRF KEEP CARLOS AS A 80 TO 90 KT HURRICANE.

CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CARLOS SHOULD
CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 10 TO 12
KNOTS THROUGH FIVE DAYS. BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
GLOBAL MODELS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TRACK
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BEYOND 3 DAYS. AN
OVERALL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS STILL THE MOST FAVORITE MODEL SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 10.4N 116.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Ed Mahmoud]

A long way out.

semi-OT, but it is kind of cool the way it looks like the weather map symbol for a tropical storm, with the curved bands.

[HURAKAN]

For Ed!

[KWT]

Looks like Carlos has the big burst of convection it needs to strengthen again, I suspect this will be a hurricane by the end of today given current trends.

[cycloneye]

For the first time,the NWS in Hawaii mentions,although briefly Carlos.

Carlos, currently rated a tropical storm, is forecast to cross 140°W into the central Pacific basin on Wednesday as a hurricane. It is too early to say much about the behavior of the storm after that, but Carlos is not expected to reach any part of the state within the forecast period.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1