Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[cycloneye]

Well EPAC upto 2 NS now, though Blanca was of very porr quality and yet again got into very poor conditions, if this season was going to be very active like some have suspecte din the EPAC, I'd have thought systems like Blanca will hold a lot better by this time.

The problem that Blanca had was that it formed around 16N.If it formed around 10-11N,then it would haved lasted much longer.

[KWT]

Yes indeed that is a good point, the models did show that this wasn't going to be a long lasting system it has to be said.

[Sanibel]

Not worth a separate thread, but, if a front hangs over the GOM that long in July it usually forms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not worth a separate thread, but, if a front hangs over the GOM that long in July it usually forms.

It appears (I need a pro-met who can see better resolution Euro for certain) that something pinches off from the trough, retrogrades South and Southwest into the GOMEX, starts to develop, and then comes back Northeast into Florida.


Business looks like it is picking up soon in the East Pac, and some of the modelling keeps it far enough South to maybe threaten the United States.

[Macrocane]

Not worth a separate thread, but, if a front hangs over the GOM that long in July it usually forms.

It appears (I need a pro-met who can see better resolution Euro for certain) that something pinches off from the trough, retrogrades South and Southwest into the GOMEX, starts to develop, and then comes back Northeast into Florida.


Business looks like it is picking up soon in the East Pac, and some of the modelling keeps it far enough South to maybe threaten the United States.

Euro has worked better than GFS this season even in the long range, so if the model is persistent and other models are in agreement I think there's something to keep an eye on.

[MGC]

That front has wandered pretty far down into the GOM....need to keep an eye on it until it washes out. Considering how unfavorable the rest of the Atlantic basin is, I would suggest that our first TC might form along a front or perhaps some kind of MCC or MCS drifts into the GOM or off the Atlantic coast......MGC

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not worth a separate thread, but, if a front hangs over the GOM that long in July it usually forms.

It appears (I need a pro-met who can see better resolution Euro for certain) that something pinches off from the trough, retrogrades South and Southwest into the GOMEX, starts to develop, and then comes back Northeast into Florida.


Business looks like it is picking up soon in the East Pac, and some of the modelling keeps it far enough South to maybe threaten the United States.

Ok, I admit it. I was waiting for someone to question this, but you guys/gals all know your 50 states.

[gatorcane]

Off the record, I have this feeling that we are in a "calm before the storm" mode. I have this feeling the "on" switch is indeed coming in the Atlantic even if it is a few weeks away -- despite all of this "el nino" talk.

It's way too quiet out there, it really is almost spooky. It's so quiet, there is hardly a thundershower anywhere across the entire Atlantic basin. Something just isn't adding up....Just enjoy it while it lasts (it won't, I don't think we are getting of this easy I'm afraid).

[jinftl]

The map below showing the tracks of the 2004 season storms was blank on this date in 2004...Alex formed on 7/31/04.  Just saying...



Looking back at the posts from this time around July 10, 2004....here are some post titles:

"Shear, shear, and more shear still dominates in atlantic basin"

"Patience as time will come"

"Folks...it's early in the season"
viewforum.php?f=31&st=0&sk=t&sd=d&start=27550

[cycloneye]

Is very spooky (Strange and eerie) right now as no invests are up around the world on July 29.

[HURAKAN]

It's more spooky in the EPAC. According to the NHC's Climatology, they should have 6 named storms (so far 4), 3 hurricanes (2), and 1 major hurricane (0*). Remember that it's an El Niño year. The Atlantic should have 1 named storm.

* = You can make the case Carlos was a major hurricane but the NHC is the rule of the land (or sea)!!!

[HURAKAN]

Look at the WPAC: Jan-July

2009:

Code: Select all

#   Name   Date   Wind   Pres   Cat   
1   Typhoon-4 KUJIRA    02-07 MAY    115       4   
2   Typhoon-2 CHAN_HOM    03-11 MAY    85       2   
3   Typhoon-1 LINFA    17-22 JUN    75       1   
4   Tropical Storm NANGKA    22-26 JUN    45       -   
5   Tropical Storm SOUDELOR    09-12 JUL    35       -   
6   Tropical Depression SIX    13-14 JUL    30       -   
7   Typhoon-1 MOLAVE    15-19 JUL    65       1   

2002:

Code: Select all

#   Name   Date   Wind   Pres   Cat   
1   Super Typhoon MITAG    26 FEB-08 MAR    140       5   
2   Tropical Depression 03W    19-25 MAR    30       -   
3   Tropical Depression 04W    05-07 APR    30       -   
4   Super Typhoon HAGIBIS    15-21 MAY    140       5   
5   Tropical Depression 06W    28-29 MAY    25       -   
6   Typhoon NOGURI    06-11 JUN    85       2   
7   Tropical Storm 08W    28-28 JUN    35       -   
8   Super Typhoon CHATAAN    29 JUN-11 JUL    130       4   
9   Typhoon RAMMASUN    28 JUN-06 JUL    110       3   
10   Super Typhoon HALONG    07-15 JUL    135       4   
11   Tropical Storm NAKRI    08-13 JUL    40       -   
12   Super Typhoon FENGSHEN    14-27 JUL    145       5   
13   Tropical Depression 13W    18-21 JUL    30       -   
14   Tropical Depression KALMAE   20-21 JUL    30       -   
15   Typhoon FUNG_WONG    20-27 JUL    65       1   

1997:

Code: Select all

#   Name   Date   Wind   Pres   Cat   
1   Tropical Storm HANNAH    19-24 JAN    50       -   
2   Super Typhoon ISA    11-23 APR    145       5   
3   Tropical Storm JIMMY    22-25 APR    50       -   
4   Tropical Storm KELLY    07-10 MAY    45       -   
5   Tropical Storm LEVI    25-30 MAY    45       -   
6   Typhoon MARIE    26 MAY-02 JUN    90       2   
7   Super Typhoon NESTOR    07-14 JUN    140       5   
8   Typhoon OPAL    16-21 JUN    90       2   
9   Typhoon PETER    23-29 JUN    65       1   
10   Super Typhoon ROSIE    19 SEP-27 JUL    140       5   
11   Tropical Storm SCOTT    27 JUL-02 AUG    55       -   
12   Typhoon TINA    30 JUL-09 AUG    95       2   
13   Tropical Storm VICTOR    31 JUL-03 AUG    55       -   

1994:

Code: Select all

1   Subtropical Storm #1     1- 6 JAN     25     -     -   
2   Typhoon #2    28 MAR- 9 APR    75    -    1   
3   Typhoon #3    8-18 MAY    90    -    2   
4   Subtropical Storm #4    14-27 MAY    30    -    -   
5   Tropical Storm #5    2- 9 JUN    55    -    -   
6   Tropical Storm #6    18-25 JUN    45    -    -   
7   Subtropical Storm #7    29 JUN- 5 JUL    30    -    -   
8   Typhoon #8    5-12 JUL    125    -    4   
9   Tropical Storm #9    8-11 JUL    45    -    -   
10   Super Typhoon #10    11-28 JUL    130    -    4   
11   Tropical Storm #11    16-21 JUL    45    -    -   
12   Typhoon #12    10-25 JUL    65    -    1   
13   Subtropical Storm #13    23-26 JUL    25    -    -   
14   Tropical Storm #14    25 JUL- 3 AUG    50    -    -   
15   Tropical Storm #15    27-31 JUL    40    -    -   
16   Tropical Storm #16    29 JUL- 5 AUG    60    -    -   
17   Super Typhoon #17    30 JUL-13 AUG    140    -    5   

1993:

Code: Select all

#   Name   Date   Wind   Pres   Cat   
1   Subtropical Storm #1    27 FEB- 2 MAR    25    -    -   
2   Tropical Storm #2    5-18 MAR    55    -    -   
3   Subtropical Storm #3    6-14 APR    25    -    -   
4   Subtropical Storm #4    15-28 APR    30    -    -   
5   Tropical Storm #5    14-23 MAY    35    -    -   
6   Super Typhoon #6    13-28 JUN    130    -    4   
7   Subtropical Storm #7    15-20 JUN    30    -    -   
8   Typhoon #8    4-13 JUL    85    -    2   
9   Tropical Storm #9    11-17 JUL    45    -    -   
10   Typhoon #10    17-26 JUL    70    -    1   
11   Tropical Storm #11    24-28 JUL    45    -    -   
12   Typhoon #12    25 JUL- 1 AUG    65    -    1   
13   Typhoon #13    30 JUL-11 AUG    120    -    4   

1992:

Code: Select all

1   Typhoon #1     3-15 JAN     70     -     1   
2   Typhoon #2    20 JUN- 1 JUL    120    -    4   
3   Typhoon #3    21 JUN- 1 JUL    80    -    1   
4   Tropical Storm #4    24 JUN- 4 JUL    40    -    -   
5   Typhoon #5    5-14 JUL    75    -    1   
6   Tropical Storm #6    11-18 JUL    55    -    -   
7   Typhoon #7    16-24 JUL    65    -    1   
8   Tropical Storm #8    24-30 JUL    45    -    -   
9   Typhoon #9    30 JUL- 5 AUG    80    -    1   
10   Typhoon #10    30 JUL-10 AUG    115    -    4   

Link: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... index.html

Just a couple of El Niño years. You can see that 2009 is behind all the other years.

[Sanibel]

When the positive MJO phase swings in it should touch it off.

[Ed Mahmoud]

When the positive MJO phase swings in it should touch it off.

Prepare to wait.

[cycloneye]

Or the waiting will not be too long.It will start to kick in by the second week of August.

[cycloneye]

Here is what Dr Jeff Masters has to say about the inactivity in the Atlantic.

Posted by: JeffMasters,10:01 AM EDT on July 29, 2009

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worthy of mention today, but the GFS model is pointing to the possibility that a tropical wave off the coast of Africa could develop this weekend. However, none of the other models are predicting this, and the previous run of the GFS model did not develop anything. So, any development in the tropics this week looks unlikely. The hurricane season of 2009 is off to a slow start, and it will be August before our first named storm appears. How does this late-starting hurricane season compare to other years?

Well, the first named storm of the year didn't occur until August in ten of the past fifty years (20%). Only two of these ten seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).



The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season. We have two experimental seasonal forecast models that agree with this idea--the UKMET Glosea models, which is forecasting only six named storms this year, and the newly-released Florida State University Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) model, which is forecasting eight named storms and four hurricanes. The Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray Colorado State University seasonal forecast updates on Tuesday August 4, and it will be interesting to see what forecast numbers they come up with.

[KWT]

Out of all the most recent years that had El Nino here is what we had, starting from 1982 for the end of July with years that were El Nino:

1982: 8/4/2
1986: 6/3/1
1987: 7/2/0
1991: 6/3/1
1994: 7/3/2
1997: 7/3/2
2002: 5/3/2
2004: 5/2/1
2006: 5/3/2
2009: ?????

As can be seen unless a system forms in the next few days it'll be the slowest of the El Nino years since the 80s.

However its not that far behind both 2002 and 2004 at the moment, and both of those years had very long gaps, indeed both seasons didn't increase thier totals till mid August!

Still looks like this season will be slower then normal in regards to normal El nino seasons on both sides of the Pacific, rather unusual it has to be said, bit like 1977 though I doubt it'll be that slow globally.

[cycloneye]

As we can see,there are two distint graphics of the MJO forecasts for the next few weeks posted above by Ed and me that are very distint one to another in terms of the data.Maybe 57 can come and give us his view about which forecast of a wet MJO in the Atlantic is right.

[Macrocane]

Out of all the most recent years that had El Nino here is what we had, starting from 1982 for the end of July with years that were El Nino:

1982: 8/4/2
1986: 6/3/1
1987: 7/2/0
1991: 6/3/1
1994: 7/3/2
1997: 7/3/2
2002: 5/3/2
2004: 5/2/1
2006: 5/3/2
2009: ?????

As can be seen unless a system forms in the next few days it'll be the slowest of the El Nino years since the 80s.

However its not that far behind both 2002 and 2004 at the moment, and both of those years had very long gaps, indeed both seasons didn't increase thier totals till mid August!

Still looks like this season will be slower then normal in regards to normal El nino seasons on both sides of the Pacific, rather unusual it has to be said, bit like 1977 though I doubt it'll be that slow globally.

Please, Could you explain what do that numbers mean?

[KWT]

They are the numbers each season had by 31st July during El Nino seasons.

The first number is the amount of tropical storms, the second is the number of hurricanes by the 31sy July and and the third is the amount of majors.

So IF we have no more systems then July 2009 will look like this:

4/2/0