Florida Keys may ease hurricane-evacuation policy

[Ixolib]

Solution: Close the Keys from June 1 to November 30 - and maybe an additional week or two on both ends. End of problem...

[srainhoutx]

My concern is the thinking of "we can survive a Category 1 or 2 easily". Texas recently had a Category 2 Hurricane that destroyed entire communities due to surge normally associated with a Category 4 storm. I understand the need for a balance,and the fact that the offshore topography is different in the keys(in some places), but imo they are toying with disaster.

a cat 1 coming from the east is survivable. A cat 1 from the west is suicide. Florida Bay is about 2 feet deep in most places

Wilma changed some the thinking of many old "conchs" concerning evacuations. EVAC Fatigue is real and costly on many levels. Some pray for the best and prepare for the worse. It is an Island Chain of Beauty.

[Category 5]

This whole thing sounds like a GREAT idea.

[JTE50]

I drove down to Key West for Hurricane Ike last year. I got there two days before it hit. Even the residents were really scared because they knew if Ike had stayed north of Cuba it would of come through the Keys as a Cat 4 or 5. I believe at some point the tourist would have left anyway because - at the very least - when Ike came off Cuba and was at it's closest approach to Key West - it was not a very pretty day. Palm trees were bent over - the wind was howling. Nobody was going out on the water - it was just a miserable weather day. The tourist would rather miss that anyway.

The Keys have a good evacuation plan and I hope they don't tinker with it. If you live there like I did for 15 years it's called the drill. You need one day to secure your business. One day to secure your home and the next day to drive out. Count em - 3 days! That's a good evacuation for a predictable long track hurricane. If everybody leaves at once, you have traffic jams like at the only red light in Big Pine Key. But say a big fuel truck flips over on the 7-mile bridge and ignites (yes, it's happened before - just look for the big black burned spot on the bridge). Say, the fire is so intense the bridge collapses (luckily that didn't happen). Then you have to call the Navy 50 miles away to put the fire out because the local Fire Dept. was not equiped to (yes, that happened). The Navy flight line Fire Dept. has the special gear to do the job. There are 112 miles of road - most of it single lane - and wrecks constantly tie up traffic especially on bridges. Get a storm that bottoms out quickly heading toward the Keys and you have big trouble no matter how good your evacuation plan. It doesn't take much storm surge to cross the road near Mile Marker 73. A 40 mph wind out of the right direction is going to put that road underwater. As it stands now, sending the tourist out first is a good idea. The locals can then decide for themselves if they want to evacuate based on the last minute information from the NHC. Those that stayed for Wilma in Key West likely lost their cars - 65% of Key West was underwater. Tow trucks towed 400 a day out for a very long time. So, sometimes it's not a good idea to stay even if you live there - even for a hurricane like Wilma that maybe had sustained Cat 1 winds in Key West. As far as the bridges washing out during a bad hurricane - probably the approaches to the bridges will wash out - still though same result - nobody goes anywhere. A comment about the building codes and structures down there - some are built better than others. The County Building in Marathon could probably take a CAT 5 wind but the storm surge would pound it pretty good and it might come down. There were state DEP vehicles lost to Wilma's storm surge. In fact, some people I know motored their boats down US1 in Marathon. My house on Big Pine Key would have been blown away in Hurricane Charley where the winds were near 150 mph at landfall. Yes, bad things can happen to you if you stay and a big one hits. You'd never see them tinkering with the evacuation plan during Billy Wagner's watch.

So I'd say: dont mess with the current plan. It works but may not work for a 1935 type storm (or weaker) because we still cannot predict which canes will undergo rapid intensification. Now maybe studying the 37GHz microwave imagery will shed some light on that topic but we are still a ways off.

Anyone want to read up on the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane here's is Jerry Wilkinson's excellent pictorial journey: http://www.keyshistory.org/shelf1935hurr.html

[artist]

wow JTE, thanks for the link. Seeing the destruction is so unnerving. I wish all Keys residence would take the time to look at it before deciding to stay for a hurricane.

[jasons2k]

This is a disaster waiting to happen...Lets see, Joe Conch, keys resident goes to sleep expecting ONLY a Cat-1 hurricane to pass nearby. Joe Conch thinks he can weather the storm...he has rode out many hurricanes in the past....Georges in 1998, Wilma in 2005. Overnight the unthinkable happens, yep our Cat-1 hurricane has bombed and is now a Cat-4...Old Joe is stuck down in Big Pine Key only slightly above sea level. Joe gets lucky or so he thinks.....the hurricane passes to his east over Bahia Honda Key. Sure the wind and tides were high, but Joe survives. Later that day he hears a rumour that the seven mile bridge is gone. Seems the bridge has met a fate similar to many of the bridges on the Gulf Coast that were destroyed by Ivan and Katrina. Along with the bridge went the water pipes that carry the only supply of water to the lower Keys. Trucks can't reach the lower Keys to bring food. Having had to drink bottled water till Janurary after Katrina I can attest to the hassle this imposes. Poor Joe Conch must rely on MRE's and bottled water till temporary decking is in place on the bridge. Joe was lucky, at least he survived the hurricane, many of his fellow Conchs didn't.

You just described my Dad to a tee. He moved to Big Pine Key in 1995 and has never evacuated. Supposedly his work has a large concrete bunker well above sea level...but I would leave if I were him for sure.

[Aquawind]

I can understand the pressure from the local people but, intensity is a big time wild card. Let's hope the locals and others respect the new policy and pay attention when asked. It's a team effort that requires everyone to cooperate.

[SETXWXLADY]

I hope the powers that be don't regret that decision. I know a thing or 2 about evacuating and the storm missing you. We're getting pretty good at it on the TX/LA border. Andrew missed. Lili missed. RITA DIDN'T! And speaking of storms coming out of nowhere. That Cat 1 Humberto was no walk in the park. If I had known he was coming I would at least have gotten into a stronger shelter. That was one bumpy ride. And Humberto caused one death of a man in BridgeCity. I think that would probably happen to someone who thinks a cat 1 is no big deal. Moving along. We evaced Gustav missed. 10 days later we were on the road again for Ike. You know why you almost never hear of Hurricane Rita in the media? Because there were no horror stories. The death toll was extremely low for a storm of that magnitude. And yes, I've heard the horror stories about the evacuation. And that was tragic. Absolutely. But no matter what everyone says that evacuation worked! I almost get too mad to type thinking about Galveston's mayor/county officials. They waited too late on Ike. When we were on the road for Ike evac the roads were empty. And we got a sad feeling because we knew what those empty roads meant. The best way I know how to describe the decision to stay or go is this..Go on Youtube and type in Ike Rescues. Then look at the date. Tons of em from before the storm. I haven't found one yet that showed a rescue after the storm.

[jinftl]

Photos out of the Keys from Wilma....keep in mind the keys missed the eye wall of wilma....personally, i wouldn't want to be in the keys in a large Cat 1....and certainly not anything stronger. This is a location with 90 deg water....and high TCHP....a storm can go from a nuisance to a monster...like the labor day Cat 5...in no time. There is no real elevated areas....there is no surge protection on islands that are maybe a mile or two wide by a mile or two long....and up to 100+ miles from the mainland. I can't think of a scarier place to be if anything more than a ts is coming through. If anyone thinks a Cat 3 is the threshold for a 'bad experience' for the keys...keep in mind, the photos below are what happened when the core of wilma missed the keys. The peak sustained wind in Key West (airport) during Wilma remained below hurricane force (71 mph)....

Marathon in the middle Keys during Wilma:


N. Roosevelt Blvd. in Key West during Wilma...


Wilma flooding on Key West...


Again, the above effects were clearly with the core of the worst winds missing the keys...

[olddude]

I was listening to the Monroe Co. administrator in an interview on the radio the other day. This is not yet a policy change and is only in the talking stages. They are very much aware of public safety down here. If there is a change it will be on a case by case basis not a carte-blanc change.
Yes this is certainly a backlash from the Fay evac. of last year. There is a possiblility of a voluntary evac for visitors in addition to a mandatory evac. Personally I don't see this policy change happening at all. Not when push comes to shove that is.

scott

[Frank2]

I think they are a little too eager to post mandatory evacuations when it's pretty obvious that something signficant will not happen, as you said in the case of Fay...

Granted, volunatary evacuation orders are sometimes not heeded, but to stress everyone with a mandatory evacuation when the area is not being threatened by a major hurricane is something that they need to review...

What is needed is growth control - Monrore County, like it or not, needs to establish a moratorium against any further development - of course they won't do that (since it involves money), but that would be the right thing - and to limit the number of visitors to the Keys...

Since Sunpass (the electronic tracking device that Florida residents have on their windshield to pay highway tolls) is one way to monitor traffic into the Keys, perhaps they need to do this at all times in order to establish a limit of visitors to the Keys at any one time - when that number is reached, then no others are allowed (similar to a "beach full" sign)...

Again, since it's a monetary issue I doubt they would do this, but this would control the number of people on the Keys at any one time, since it's been said many times that the growth of the Keys population (both permanent and visitor) is the problem during hurricane evacuations...

Frank

[Lurker]

Interesting theory......The problem with growth control is it never works.

I think they are a little too eager to post mandatory evacuations when it's pretty obvious that something signficant will not happen, as you said in the case of Fay...

Granted, volunatary evacuation orders are sometimes not heeded, but to stress everyone with a mandatory evacuation when the area is not being threatened by a major hurricane is something that they need to review...

What is needed is growth control - Monrore County, like it or not, needs to establish a moratorium against any further development - of course they won't do that (since it involves money), but that would be the right thing - and to limit the number of visitors to the Keys...

Since Sunpass (the electronic tracking device that Florida residents have on their windshield to pay highway tolls) is one way to monitor traffic into the Keys, perhaps they need to do this at all times in order to establish a limit of visitors to the Keys at any one time - when that number is reached, then no others are allowed (similar to a "beach full" sign)...

Again, since it's a monetary issue I doubt they would do this, but this would control the number of people on the Keys at any one time, since it's been said many times that the growth of the Keys population (both permanent and visitor) is the problem during hurricane evacuations...

Frank

[MGC]

The business that rely on tourism would pitch a fit if the number of tourist were to be limited. We go to Key West every year for Fantasy Fest (I'll be a vampire...look for me!) and sure the traffic can be a bit difficult on Sunday going back north. Hurricane season is the off season in the keys.....MGC

[olddude]

What is needed is growth control - Monrore County, like it or not, needs to establish a moratorium against any further development - of course they won't do that (since it involves money), but that would be the right thing - and to limit the number of visitors to the Keys...

Since Sunpass (the electronic tracking device that Florida residents have on their windshield to pay highway tolls) is one way to monitor traffic into the Keys, perhaps they need to do this at all times in order to establish a limit of visitors to the Keys at any one time - when that number is reached, then no others are allowed (similar to a "beach full" sign)...

Again, since it's a monetary issue I doubt they would do this, but this would control the number of people on the Keys at any one time, since it's been said many times that the growth of the Keys population (both permanent and visitor) is the problem during hurricane evacuations...

Well, Frank I don't think that is an answer. Look at a few quick census facts.
Population - 2008 72,243
2000 79,589

% decrease - 9.2

Growth for the most part HAS stopped in the Keys. Look at the empty buildings on any of the islands. Look at the empty homes. Our schools are in a severe decline in students. Our tax base has dramaticaly shrunk due to the decline in property values. Do you really think limiting the numbers of visitors (given that tourism is a fairly clean industry and about the only one we have left) is a viable concept?

It's not just the tourist oriented businesses that suffer but ALL workers are hurt by the trickle down economics of a wounded economy.

Scott

[jinftl]

Unless the threat of a direct landfall is low, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where the keys being in the path of a forecast hurricane is not a threat serious enough to merit evacuating. The waters around the Keys...in all directions....are the breeding ground for some of the strongest episodes of rapid intensification the entire atlantic basin has seen. The Labor Day hurricane went from a Cat 1 on September 1, 1935 to making landfall as a Cat 5 with winds upward of 200 mph on September 2, 1935.

The geography and topography....clusters of flat islands that extend out from the mainland up to 125 miles from the mainland (Key West is at MM 125)...and are linked by one roadway...require extra caution. The risk of being wrong and underestimating the risk of a storm is not going to be only a few days of inconvenience and lost snorkeling time. The risk of sticking around is likely to be drowning in the worst case....potenially drowning in the best case.

As far as growth being the root cause of the evacuation headache, the year-round population of the Keys has decreased in the last 20 years. Monroe County (the Keys) had a population of 78,000 in 1990. The 2006 census estimate was 74,000 people living there permanently. There is only so much surface area of land on the Keys to develop....and the Keys are not Miami Beach...there are no highrises built on postage stamps. The tallest building in the Florida Keys is the famous Hotel La Cancha at 7 stories.

As far as the tourism factor, the peak season for visitors is from late fall into spring each year....which means the area is most clogged with tourists during the time when storms don't threaten. Of course business owners and local officials don't want needless evacuation. I ask this....how would those same business owners and local officials feel if there region is dead to tourists for (especially during) hurricane seasons to come because of the 800 or 1000 or 2000 tourists who drowned on Key West because they didn't evacuate. Good luck marketing that destination.

The Keys are one of the most beautiful locations in the u.s....truly a unique destination...the lower 48's tropical paradise....where else in the u.s. can a claim be made that a destination is so tropical that it is frost-free? Key West can...lowest temp ever recorded was 41 deg. Year-round, it is an amazing destination for water sports, fishing, snorkeling, etc. The Keys are in many ways an unspoiled paradise since there is not the overdeveloped feel to it in any way....mainly mom and pop businesses along the island chain. Living and visiting such a paradise does not mean that mankind has 'conquered nature' in the region. Nature must be respected....if a storm threatens and the area is prone to flood, better to call your vacation short and leave. Officials would be negligent to not require it.

I think they are a little too eager to post mandatory evacuations when it's pretty obvious that something signficant will not happen, as you said in the case of Fay...

Granted, volunatary evacuation orders are sometimes not heeded, but to stress everyone with a mandatory evacuation when the area is not being threatened by a major hurricane is something that they need to review...

What is needed is growth control - Monrore County, like it or not, needs to establish a moratorium against any further development - of course they won't do that (since it involves money), but that would be the right thing - and to limit the number of visitors to the Keys...

Since Sunpass (the electronic tracking device that Florida residents have on their windshield to pay highway tolls) is one way to monitor traffic into the Keys, perhaps they need to do this at all times in order to establish a limit of visitors to the Keys at any one time - when that number is reached, then no others are allowed (similar to a "beach full" sign)...

Again, since it's a monetary issue I doubt they would do this, but this would control the number of people on the Keys at any one time, since it's been said many times that the growth of the Keys population (both permanent and visitor) is the problem during hurricane evacuations...

Frank

[weatherwindow]

just a note from the front lines...monroe county policy will remain unchanged as regards residents..general sheltering, in place or in local shelters, in the case of an impendiing cat 1/2 and general evacuation in the case of an impending major...the current policy, under consideration for change, requires an evacuation of all non residents in all hurricanes....in addition to the valid concerns expressed above, the key problem regards the continuing shortage of available public shelter space. the changes suggested in the article would require that the county provide sufficient viable shelter space(cat1/2) for both residents and the projected unevacuated tourist load. currently, it does not exist. visitors would be forced to remain, for the most part, in their lodgings which may play havoc with owners liability in addition to the implied safety issues of these unrated structures...hopefully they will rethink any changes unless these concerns are adequately addressed.....rich

[mitchell]

People do cost versus benefit analysis all the time.


The benefit is extra tourist dollars by relaxing the rules on sending the tourists away.

Precisely. If hurricane safety were the only factor in the mix, then that would be one thing. There are significant societal costs (both dollars, traffic safety, and desensitizing to future evac order) associated with sending tens of thousand of tourists on a 200 mile ride. Those costs have to be factored. Its not an easy job emergency managers have, and as possible to have a hurricane evacuation policy that errs on the side of caution, as it is to err on the side of too much risk

[Category 5]

If another 1935 storm hit with "eased" evacuation policies, they'd have to explain why thousands of people died on their watch.

[Recurve]

Not to downplay the danger, but I think there's enough difference between then and now that the deaths from a 1935 storm would be less today.
Mainly, we don't have 1,000 people living in tents in Islamorada. There were no concrete houses, or even a house on stilts then.

On the other hand, it was a Labor Day weekend. I'm not sure there's any evacuation policy that could cope with a storm essentially exploding from nothing to Cat. 5 between the Bahamas and here on a holiday weekend. The real disaster might be if Lower Keys residents try to head to the mainland, and get caught on Upper Matecumbe.

I really wonder what today's forecast models would do with the Labor Day storm when it was 12 hours out. Would there be enough confidence to have a targeted evacuation?

[mitchell]

Not to downplay the danger, but I think there's enough difference between then and now that the deaths from a 1935 storm would be less today.
Mainly, we don't have 1,000 people living in tents in Islamorada. There were no concrete houses, or even a house on stilts then.

On the other hand, it was a Labor Day weekend. I'm not sure there's any evacuation policy that could cope with a storm essentially exploding from nothing to Cat. 5 between the Bahamas and here on a holiday weekend. The real disaster might be if Lower Keys residents try to head to the mainland, and get caught on Upper Matecumbe.

I really wonder what today's forecast models would do with the Labor Day storm when it was 12 hours out. Would there be enough confidence to have a targeted evacuation?

Interesting. I thought hindcasting estimates have the storm at about a cat 4 with 140 mph winds 12 hours out and heading relatively straight towards the upper keys, and a cat 3, 120 mph 18 hours out. Seems to me 12-18 hours out, the weather models would not be the weakest link, it would be the traffic/evacuation models. In other words, there might be less certaintly about people's behaviour than the storms behaviour.