H1N1 (Swine Flu) spreads worldwide= Is declared a Pandemic

[Cookiely]

2 more Utahns die from H1N1 flu
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,51 ... 30,00.html

Two more Utahns have died as the novel H1N1 flu continues to spread throughout the Beehive State at a rate that is "well above the epidemic threshold," for the reporting period June 14-20.

The Utah County Health Department reported a woman between the ages of 18 and 39 has died, and the Davis County Health Department reported the death of a boy between the ages of 5 and 17. As with several other Utah victims, both had underlying medical conditions, health officials said, adding no other information on either victim will be released.

The deaths bring the Utah total for novel H1N1 flu fatalities to 10.

The Utah Department of Health released new statistics Wednesday afternoon showing 81 more people have been hospitalized in the past week, bringing the total of hospitalized cases to 210.

Confirmed cases of the virus have now been identified in all of Utah's local health districts, though not all of those districts have seen patients hospitalized. Officials said the majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths have occurred along the heavily populated Wasatch Front.

Most of those hospitalized have risk factors including chronic lung, heart or kidney disease.

"Families should begin preparing for what they would need if they are asked to spend a week away from school, work or other activities. Now is the time to update, or create, your emergency stockpile. Items like food, water, tissue, sanitizers, over-the-counter medications and prescription medications are all useful items to have on hand in the event you become ill and are confined to your home," officials said in a press release.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now estimating the virus will be a "Category 2," which means it has the following characteristics:

Case fatality ratio of 0.1 percent to less than 0.5 percent.

Between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths in the U.S. (compared with estimated 36,000 deaths during a typical influenza season).

Excess death rate of between 30 to less than 150 per 100,000 people.

Illness rate of between 20 percent and 40 percent.

Similar to the 1957 flu pandemic.

State health officials have released an online set of guidelines for employers who are trying to determine how best to deal with the outbreak. Details may be found online at health.utah.gov/epi/h1n1flu/Q&As_Employer_061609_Final.pdf.
_________________

[DanKellFla]

We have a case of a teen aged camp counseler getting H1N1. He was isolated pretty quickly from the rest of the campers. So far, there are no other cases at the camp. The counseler is better now and taking the whole week off as a precaution. It is too late to keep my kid out of camp, he would have spread it around by the time he started to feel bad. So, all I can do is keep an eye out for it and bring him to the doctor if I suspect anything.

[funster]

Hope it is not so many people that die.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now estimating the virus will be a "Category 2," which means it has the following characteristics:

Case fatality ratio of 0.1 percent to less than 0.5 percent.

Between 90,000 and 450,000 deaths in the U.S. (compared with estimated 36,000 deaths during a typical influenza season).

Excess death rate of between 30 to less than 150 per 100,000 people.

Illness rate of between 20 percent and 40 percent.

Similar to the 1957 flu pandemic.

[Dionne]

Just got the new CDC update. 27,717 confirmed cases with 127 deaths.

[DanKellFla]

Here is the local update from Boynton Beach. The camper and couseler are doing fine. The Palm Beach County Health District (or whatever the divisions name is) has said that a building doesn't spread H1N1, so there is no recomendation of keeping your kids home.

I sent my kid to camp. He had a great time, and I got some work done.

[HURAKAN]

US passes million swine flu cases

US health officials estimate that at least one million Americans have been infected with swine flu since the H1N1 virus emerged nearly three months ago.

The number is far higher than cases actually reported to the authorities.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said many cases were mild, although 127 people had died.

The CDC based its figures on surveys, rather than laboratory evidence, but the numbers suggest the death rate from swine flu is lower than thought.

"We're saying that there have been at least a million cases of the new H1N1 virus so far this year in the United States," said Anne Schuchat of the CDC.

"Reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg."

The CDC has based its estimate on mathematical modelling, based on surveys by health officials.

If the figures are correct, it is reassuring news, because it indicates that the fatality rate from swine flu is even lower than thought, says BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh.

However, Dr Schuchat warned that swine flu might exhibit higher infection rates than seasonal flu and could return in a more virulent form in the autumn.

Argentina election

According to the CDC, there have been 27,717 confirmed or probable cases; some 3,000 people have needed hospital treatment and there have been 127 deaths.

Swine flu continues to affect mainly people under 50 years of age, with many of those worst affected having underlying health problems such as asthma or diabetes.

The average age of those who died in the US is 37.

Officials from the CDC and the World Health Organization are watching outbreaks in the southern hemisphere, in particular in Argentina, Chile and Australia, to see how the H1N1 virus has been spreading during the winter months and whether it is likely to become more virulent.

Argentina's health ministry has registered 26 deaths attributed to swine flu, and 1,587 cases. Officials are advising people to try to leave space between each other as they line up to vote in legislative elections on Sunday.

Chilean health authorities say there have been 6,211 cases and 12 deaths.

In Australia, there have been five swine-flu related deaths, all of patients with existing medical conditions, and 3,677 cases, according to official figures.

The H1N1 virus first emerged in April in Mexico, which has recorded 116 deaths and 8,279 cases, according to the WHO.

On 11 June, the WHO declared a global flu pandemic, meaning that swine flu virus was spreading in at least two regions of the world.

Officials stressed that this did not mean the virus was causing more severe illness or more deaths.

According to the latest figures from the WHO, there have been 263 deaths and nearly 60,000 cases in some 100 countries and territories.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/a ... 122262.stm

[abajan]

About a couple days ago Barbados confirmed an additional 5 cases, bringing our official total to 10. None of those infected has developed any serious complications.

[lurkey]

Apocalypse not: Behind the Swine Flu Hysteria

At the height of the swine flu pandemic this spring, when the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was recommending that schools with cases of H1N1 be closed for 14 days and Mexico was still on lockdown, the epidemiology community already suspected the world wasn't ending. Why? The numbers came in: case fatality rate (how many infected people are dying) and replication rate (how many others an infected person will transmit the illness to — "R-zero," in disease-speak). H1N1 had an RØ of about 1.3, high enough to spread the virus but low enough that a strong isolation program could break its back. Its case fatality rate was a wussy 1.9 percent in Mexico and 0.1 percent worldwide. By comparison, the 1918 Spanish flu had an RØ of 2.7 and a case fatality rate of up to 5 percent, making it far more deadly. A real apocalypse, like the killer flu in The Stand — Stephen King's opus of epidemiologic eschatology — would be off the chart, with an RØ of 5 to 6 and a case fatality rate of 99 percent. So, don't panic ... unless H1N1 surges this fall. Where did we leave that hand sanitizer, again?

More here . . .including graphs . .

[lurkey]

Apocalypse not: Behind the Swine Flu Hysteria

At the height of the swine flu pandemic this spring, when the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was recommending that schools with cases of H1N1 be closed for 14 days and Mexico was still on lockdown, the epidemiology community already suspected the world wasn't ending. Why? The numbers came in: case fatality rate (how many infected people are dying) and replication rate (how many others an infected person will transmit the illness to — "R-zero," in disease-speak). H1N1 had an RØ of about 1.3, high enough to spread the virus but low enough that a strong isolation program could break its back. Its case fatality rate was a wussy 1.9 percent in Mexico and 0.1 percent worldwide. By comparison, the 1918 Spanish flu had an RØ of 2.7 and a case fatality rate of up to 5 percent, making it far more deadly. A real apocalypse, like the killer flu in The Stand — Stephen King's opus of epidemiologic eschatology — would be off the chart, with an RØ of 5 to 6 and a case fatality rate of 99 percent. So, don't panic ... unless H1N1 surges this fall. Where did we leave that hand sanitizer, again?

More here . . .including graphs . .

Only a flight away? Swine flu followed route map

Mexican swine flu victims were young
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Health experts are fond of saying any new disease is just a flight away from anywhere, and a report published on Monday shows the new strain of H1N1 flu followed the airline route map as it spread around the globe.

The swine flu virus spread first and quickest in March and April in the United States and Canada -- where 80 percent of airline passengers traveled in March and April of 2008, researchers at St. Michael's Hospital in Toronto found.

Dr. Kamram Khan of St. Michael's and colleagues used International Air Transport Association data for their study. They said travel patterns were also similar in 2007 and therefore likely to be similar in 2009.

"This work provides the world with a potent early warning system for emerging infectious diseases," Dr. Michael Gardam of the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion said in a statement.

"Our analysis showed that in March and April 2008, a total of 2.35 million passengers flew from Mexico to 1,018 cities in 164 countries," Khan and colleagues wrote in the New England Journal of Medicine and published at h1n1.nejm.org/.

Los Angeles had the most travelers, with 221,494 passengers arriving from Mexico in March and April of 2008. New York followed with 126,345. The first non-U.S. city was Toronto, No. 12, with 44,854 passengers arriving from Mexico.

The World Health Organization has confirmed 70,893 cases of the new H1N1 swine flu pandemic, with 311 deaths. However, U.S. health officials last week said there were likely at least 1 million cases there alone. Iraq, Lithuania, Monaco and Nepal all confirmed their first cases on Monday.

The first cases were detected in two California children in April, but tests showed the first known infections were in Mexico. By the time they had identified a new virus, U.S. officials said it had spread too far and too fast to try to stop it.

For those interested in the Spanish 1918 comparison: The flu followed troop movements first: from isolated towns in Kansas were the flu is mostly believed to have come from to the overcrowded military training camps to Europe and nearby American towns and cities. The virus spread from the big cities and towns along the railroad routes.

[HURAKAN]

WHO warns swine flu 'unstoppable'

The UN's top health official has opened a forum in Mexico on combating swine flu by saying that the spread of the virus worldwide is now unstoppable.

World Health Organization head Margaret Chan added that the holding of the meeting in Cancun showed confidence in Mexico, which has been hard hit.

The WHO says most H1N1 cases are mild, with many people recovering unaided.

As the summit opened, the UK alone was projecting more than 100,000 new cases of H1N1 a day by the end of the summer.

As the peak of the flu season approaches in South America, some areas have declared a public health emergency and Paraguay has reported its first death.

'Mild symptoms'

"As we see today, with well over 100 countries reporting cases, once a fully fit pandemic virus emerges, its further international spread is unstoppable," Dr Chan said in her opening remarks.

She stressed that the overwhelming majority of patients experienced mild symptoms and made a full recovery within a week, often in the absence of any form of medical treatment.

The exceptions, she said, were pregnant women and people with underlying health problems, who were at higher risk from complications from the virus and should be monitored if they fell ill.

"For a pandemic of moderate severity, this is one of our greatest challenges: helping people to understand when they do not need to worry, and when they do need to seek urgent care," Dr Chan said.

Turning to the summit venue, the WHO chief added: "Mexico is a safe, as well as a beautiful and warmly gracious, place to visit."

Leaders and experts from 50 countries are in Cancun for the two-day meeting to discuss strategies for combating the virus.

It has been more than two months since the initial alert over swine flu.

Since then, the H1N1 virus has entered more than 100 countries, infected more than 70,000 people and killed more than 300 worldwide.

Authorities across South America are becoming increasingly concerned as the peak flu season approaches, the BBC's Andy Gallacher reports from Cancun.

Schools across Argentina have sent students home and pregnant women have been told they can take two weeks off work to avoid contracting the virus.

It is hoped the Cancun meeting will address many of the issues that might help slow the spread of swine flu but, our correspondent adds, many people are concerned that an effective vaccine has still not been developed.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/a ... 130196.stm

[abajan]

Barbados has confirmed 2 more cases, bringing our total to a dozen (none of them serious). To be honest, I'm surprised there aren't many more confirmed infections here by now but I'm thankful.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

33 Canadian deaths associated with swine flu as Ontario up to 12

By THE CANADIAN PRESS – 4 hours ago

Ontario is now reporting 12 deaths associated with the swine flu for a national total of 33.

A 37-year-old Toronto man who had underlying medical conditions tested positive for the virus. Ontario now has more than 3,150 confirmed cases of H1N1. Quebec is also reporting another death related to swine flu today, although that province's health department gave no information about its 14th victim.

Twenty-one new cases of swine flu have been confirmed by the department in Quebec, bringing the provincial total to 2,129.

There have been 12 deaths in Ontario, four in Manitoba, two in Saskatchewan and one in Alberta.

Across Canada, there have been nearly 8,000 cases of the H1N1 since the outbreak began, and most have been mild.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadi ... KMqjVTJk5w

[funster]

Those hospitalized and dead from swine flu in Canada are mostly young people with no underlying health conditions. Very sad to see healthy young people on ventilators or dying. Seems it can be serious and deadly even for people who were really healthy the day before they got sick.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians hospitalized due to swine flu, and half of those who have died, had no underlying health conditions.

Experts do not yet understand why the new strain affects some healthy people so severely, ravaging their lungs with an aggressive pneumonia and forcing them to spend weeks in hospital, attached to breathing machines.

"They are ending up on ventilators and it can last from weeks to months," said Michael Gardam, director of infectious diseases at the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion. "I would like people to be concerned about H1N1, without panicking. More concerned than they are about seasonal flu."

A new study tracking the epidemic in Mexico also found the flu strain hits those between the ages of 20 and 50 the hardest, with a higher death rate than other age groups.

In recent weeks, as swine flu has faded from the world's radar, infectious disease specialists worry that people have become complacent about the pandemic, which is expected to infect one third of the population, or about 10 million Canadians. (In contrast, seasonal flu affects about one in 10 people.)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat ... le1203826/

[vbhoutex]

Those hospitalized and dead from swine flu in Canada are mostly young people with no underlying health conditions. Very sad to see healthy young people on ventilators or dying. Seems it can be serious and deadly even for people who were really healthy the day before they got sick.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians hospitalized due to swine flu, and half of those who have died, had no underlying health conditions.

Experts do not yet understand why the new strain affects some healthy people so severely, ravaging their lungs with an aggressive pneumonia and forcing them to spend weeks in hospital, attached to breathing machines.

"They are ending up on ventilators and it can last from weeks to months," said Michael Gardam, director of infectious diseases at the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion. "I would like people to be concerned about H1N1, without panicking. More concerned than they are about seasonal flu."

A new study tracking the epidemic in Mexico also found the flu strain hits those between the ages of 20 and 50 the hardest, with a higher death rate than other age groups.

In recent weeks, as swine flu has faded from the world's radar, infectious disease specialists worry that people have become complacent about the pandemic, which is expected to infect one third of the population, or about 10 million Canadians. (In contrast, seasonal flu affects about one in 10 people.)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat ... le1203826/

Which is standard with just about any flu outbreak. Not about to downplay my concerns with this, but not about to keep hyping how dangerous it is when it isn't, at this time, anything worse than most flu epidemics we have had here on good ole mother Earth.

[lurkey]

I'm about finished with America's Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918. ..

Here is the section of the book about pregnant women, immigrants and Native Americans[including Aleuts and Eskimos].

Pregnant women have one set of lungs taking care of two bodies, so to speak. So their lungs can be overwhelmed, I would think.

Canadian, Hungarian, Polish and Russian immigrants had higher death rates than English German and the Irish. The flu swept through the little "Italies" at terrible rate, because " ..the Italians seemed to always have 4 to 12 visitors around the sickbed." The more scrunched together the immigrant group were in the cities and more gregrious the immigrant group, seemed to determine how badly affected the immigrant group.

African Americans fared better than those in Africa, because they had prior exposure to respiratory disease. African Americans also fared better during the fall wave of 'flu, because more of them, perhaps, contracted the Spanish flu during the earlier spring wave.

Aleuts and Eskimos, it depended whether or not, they followed strict quarantine over tradition. There was a directive from the governor at the time to the Alaska natives, asking them to "discard their traditions of communality and hospitality; to stay in their own villages an repel all visitors; to avoid visiting one another's homes with in their villages; indeed to avoid all gatherings, even those most vital to their self-esteem."

[funster]

That's true. There are a few serious outbreaks each century when thousands of healthy young people in America are killed by the flu. This is just another one of those. There are about 2 or 3 a century is seems. We haven't beaten the flu yet but thank god we beat small pox. That was the worst thing ever. Someday we will beat the flu too! It will be sad for the tens of thousands of young American children who will lose their parents this year to h1n1 but life will go on. Maybe one of these young children will go on to become an expert who solves the influenza riddle once and for all.

Those hospitalized and dead from swine flu in Canada are mostly young people with no underlying health conditions. Very sad to see healthy young people on ventilators or dying. Seems it can be serious and deadly even for people who were really healthy the day before they got sick.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians hospitalized due to swine flu, and half of those who have died, had no underlying health conditions.

Experts do not yet understand why the new strain affects some healthy people so severely, ravaging their lungs with an aggressive pneumonia and forcing them to spend weeks in hospital, attached to breathing machines.

"They are ending up on ventilators and it can last from weeks to months," said Michael Gardam, director of infectious diseases at the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion. "I would like people to be concerned about H1N1, without panicking. More concerned than they are about seasonal flu."

A new study tracking the epidemic in Mexico also found the flu strain hits those between the ages of 20 and 50 the hardest, with a higher death rate than other age groups.

In recent weeks, as swine flu has faded from the world's radar, infectious disease specialists worry that people have become complacent about the pandemic, which is expected to infect one third of the population, or about 10 million Canadians. (In contrast, seasonal flu affects about one in 10 people.)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat ... le1203826/

Which is standard with just about any flu outbreak. Not about to downplay my concerns with this, but not about to keep hyping how dangerous it is when it isn't, at this time, anything worse than most flu epidemics we have had here on good ole mother Earth.

[HURAKAN]

I just got this in my FIU e-mail:

The Miami-Dade Health Department has alerted Florida International
University officials that three students tested positive for the H1N1
virus, commonly known as Swine Flu. As many as six others have had
symptoms consistent with the virus. In addition, one member of the staff
also was diagnosed with the flu recently. Many of these individuals are
currently symptom-free.

“We are taking swift action to limit the spread of this illness but
fortunately we are dealing with a very mild strain of the virus,” said
Oscar Loynaz, interim director of University Health Services, who
received word from the Health Department Wednesday afternoon. Loynaz
said that over the past months about a dozen cases of H1N1 have been
confirmed within the university community.

The affected students, many of whom live on campus, are being provided
with treatment, and advised to avoid social contact, wash their hands
frequently and cover their cough. Students are being advised to stop
going to class and for at least 24 hours after their symptoms have
disappeared.

Vice President for Student Affairs Rosa Jones explained that her office
is working with residential housing staff to meet the needs of the
affected students while they recover.

“We are making sure our students receive the care and support they need
to recover quickly, while we take every precaution to ensure we stop the
spread of the virus,” said Jones. “Fortunately, this seems to be a very
mild case of the flu and we are confident we have it under control.”

Any member of the university community who experiences flu-like symptoms
is urged to seek medical attention immediately and take steps to limit
social interaction until symptoms subside.

Meanwhile, university health officials are redoubling efforts to remind
the university community to take precautions to reduce the chances of
contracting or spreading influenza:

* People with respiratory illness should stay home from work or
school to avoid spreading infections, including influenza, to
others in the community.
* Avoid close contact with people who are coughing or otherwise
appear ill.
* Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
* Wash hands frequently to lessen the spread of respiratory illness.
* People experiencing cough, fever and fatigue, possibly along with
diarrhea and vomiting, should contact their physician.
* If you think you have influenza, please call your health care
provider and discuss whether you need to be seen in their office
or emergency department or stay home.
* Anyone with influenza-like symptoms should avoid contact with
others until at least 24 hours after those symptoms have disappeared.

Should you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to call
University Health Services at 305-348-2401 ext. 22 or 305-919-5620 at
Biscayne Bay.

[cycloneye]

First death in Puerto Rico,35 cases confirmed,290 probable

The goverment elevated from 4 to 5 the alert level here.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/confirmanprim ... 91889.html

[Cookiely]

UW study of swine flu virus finds it more virulent than regular flu

By Mark Johnson of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: July 13, 2009 11:24 a.m.
http://www.jsonline.com/features/health/50634332.html

An international team of scientists led by a University of Wisconsin-Madison virologist has produced a highly detailed portrait of the new swine flu virus that has killed 211 people in the U.S., suggesting it is more virulent than previously thought and contradicting assertions that the virus appears similar to seasonal flu.

What makes the new H1N1 virus different and more deadly than common seasonal influenza is its ability to infect cells deep in the lungs where it can cause scarring and pneumonia, according to a fast-tracked report Monday in the journal Nature.

The new study sends "a very clear message" that doctors and patients in the U.S. must adopt a new approach to influenza, said UW virologist Yoshihiro Kawaoka, who led the group of more than 50 scientists in Madison and Japan who are studying the H1N1 virus.

"Seeing physicians early and getting anti-viral drugs is not common practice," Kawaoka said. "That has to be changed." {this man is so my hero..}

The study also found that people exposed to the deadly 1918 influenza appear to have antibodies that neutralize swine flu. This may explain why relatively few elderly people have died in the recent H1N1 outbreak. So far, the virus has killed four people in Wisconsin, including two children.

Kawaoka and his colleagues infected mice, ferrets, pigs and nonhuman primates with the H1N1 virus, using samples of the virus obtained from patients in California, Wisconsin, the Netherlands and Japan. They found that while seasonal flu usually infects only cells in the upper respiratory system - the nose, throat and larynx - swine flu was able to take root and grow in the lungs.

In mice with swine flu, the lungs essentially filled with fluid until they could not take in oxygen and the animals died. Other animals in the study did not die from the swine flu.

"There is a misunderstanding about this virus," Kawaoka said. "People think this pathogen may be similar to seasonal influenza. This study shows that is not the case."

"This swine influenza," he added, "is more (virulent) than seasonal influenza. That is for sure."

Some skepticism

However, some experts remain unconvinced that the H1N1 virus is substantially more deadly than seasonal flu.

"The real issue with any infectious disease is how it's spreading, not how it looks in the laboratory," said Marc Siegel, a national flu expert and author of the book "Bird Flu: Everything You Need to Know About the Next Pandemic."

Siegel said 0.2% of swine flu cases are resulting in death, a mortality rate that suggests the virus is of mild to moderate virulence. In fact, Siegel said the mortality rate is probably even lower since most swine flu deaths are being reported, but many nonfatal cases are likely going unreported.

"I think there's a few million cases and the deaths are still in the hundreds," Siegel said. {based on what the Tooth Fairy told you, Dr. Siegel? Got a shred of data? You remember data, don't you?}

Kelly Henrickson, a professor of pediatrics and microbiology at the Medical College of Wisconsin, called the study "critical and extremely valuable" but cautioned that work in animal models is not always an accurate predictor of what will happen in humans.

"Ultimately the experiment that matters is in people," said Henrickson, who practices at Children's Hospital of Wisconsin.

Fall awaited

He said the number of new swine flu cases in Milwaukee has dropped off rapidly in recent weeks, but health officials are concerned about what will happen in the fall, when children return to school.

"It's either going to start coming back two weeks into school or it won't, and if it doesn't, all bets are off," he said.

Henrickson and others have been studying the flu outbreak in Milwaukee, where more cases have been reported than in many entire states. He said H1N1 is more concentrated than the seasonal influenza.

Many researchers are now studying the genetic evolution of the H1N1 strain. The hope is that learning how the virus evolves will help health care officials plan for it better and produce a more effective vaccine.

Scientists studying the virus in animals are likely to continue searching for specific markers of virulence.

"The 1918 virus had several virulence factors," Siegel said, "including the ability to destroy the mitochondria of cells," an ability that H1N1 has yet to demonstrate. The mitochondria generate energy for cells; when they're destroyed, the cells die.
_________________

[cycloneye]

2nd confirmed death in Puerto Rico

More bad news today.And more cases are being investigated,now above 400.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/confirman2dam ... 92439.html